Between first and second order: A comparison of voting behaviour in European and local elections in Britain

Abstract. In Britain, both local elections and European elections can be regarded as second–order. However, voters believe that even less is at stake in European elections than in local elections, and their behaviour is congruent with this: voters are more likely to turn out in local elections, they are more likely to 'split their ticket' they are more likely to report that they vote on issues specific to the second–order arena. Logistic regression of party choices in the local, European and national contexts confirms this. National considerations played less part in the local election and there was some evidence that voters were influenced by the record of the locally–incumbent party. It appears that voting in the European elections has more of an expressive character, and is less instrumental than that in either local or national elections.     

Expectations for the 1982 mid-term U.S. congressional elections: An historical perspective

The record of U.S. mid-term elections since the mid-1940s is examined. The author explores the relationship of their results to those in the preceding Presidential year. Differential turnout does not seem to affect the outcome. Presidential popularity matters less than expected. But change in disposable income goes far to explain the scale of the electoral changes recorded. Party loyalty matters less for chances of re-election than mere incumbency. In 1982 reapportionment will help the Republicans but President Reagan's unpopularity will hurt them.     

Sex of Spouse Abuse Offender and Directionality of Abuse as Predictors of Personal Distress,Interpersonal Functioning,and Perceptions of Family Climate

This study examines perceptions of personal distress, interpersonal functioning and family climate reported by men and women involved in unidirectional versus bidirectional spouse abuse. Participants were 7253 offenders treated by the USAF Family Advocacy Program from 1988 to 1996. Over a quarter of the sample is female and included among them were both unidirectional and bidirectional offenders. Grouping factors for the analysis are gender, directionality of aggression, history of abuse in childhood, history of recidivism, and severity of aggression. Females and offenders raised in abusive homes reported more negative perceptions across the measured spheres. Unidirectional abusers reported more personal distress, but bidirectional abuse had more conflicted family climates. Few differences were noted in offenders' perceptions based on the severity of their abuse or their history of repeat offenses. Tests for interactions yielded no reliable pattern indicating that grouping factors were related to outcomes in an additive fashion.     

Risk assessment in offenders with mental disorders: relative efficacy of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables

Following the meta-analysis by Bonta, Law, and Hanson, (1998) this study examined the ability of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables to predict reoffending in offenders in the United Kingdom who had mental disorders. The efficacy of each variable in predicting rate of general reoffending and violent reoffending was investigated. Age on admission, number of days hospitalized, and number of previous offenses were the most effective variables in predicting re-offending, with number of previous offenses being the strongest predictor. Clinical diagnosis was not predictive of reoffending when the variance attributable to these other predictors was controlled for. None of the variables were able to discriminate between general offenders and violent offenders indicating that the same variables predict both types of reoffending. The results showed that reconviction in offenders with mental disorders can be predicted using the same criminogenic variables that are predictive in offenders without mental disorders.     

Love and let die

When the very technology that can save lives is only prolonging death, how should a patient decide whether to stop treatment--or help death along? In the last days of a ravaging disease, patients and their families face all but unbearable decisions. Is there a right to die? To commit suicide? To be killed on request? As the private dilemmas multiply, they have become the public province of interest groups, policymakers and the U.S. Supreme Court.