A randomized controlled trial of different policing strategies at hot spots of violent crime

Focusing police efforts on “hot spots” has gained acceptance among researchers and practitioners. However, little rigorous evidence exists on the comparative effectiveness of different hot spots strategies. To address this gap, we randomly assigned 83 hot spots of violence in Jacksonville, Florida, to receive either a problem-oriented policing (POP) strategy, directed-saturation patrol, or a control condition for 90 days. We then examined crime in these areas during the intervention period and a 90-day post-intervention period. In sum, the use of POP was associated with a 33% reduction in “street violence” during the 90 days following the intervention. While not statistically significant, we also observed that POP was associated with other non-trivial reductions in violence and property crime during the post-intervention period. In contrast, we did not detect statistically significant crime reductions for the directed-saturation patrol group, though there were non-significant declines in crime in these areas during the intervention period. Tests for displacement or a diffusion of benefits provided indications that violence was displaced to areas near the POP locations, though some patterns in the data suggest this may have been due to the effects of POP on crime reporting by citizens in nearby areas. We conclude by discussing the study’s limitations and the implications of the findings for efforts to refine hot spots policing.     

Investigating genetic discrimination in the Australian life insurance sector: the use of genetic test results in underwriting, 1999-2003

A major component of the Genetic Discrimination Project (GDP), an Australia-wide study to examine the advantages and disadvantages for individuals of having genetic information and cases of alleged genetic discrimination, is the analysis of insurers' use of genetic test results. The peak life insurance body, IFSA, had collected data through the Australian Institute of Actuaries (AIA) for the period June 1999-May 2003 from life insurance companies in Australia regarding their use of genetic test results in insurance underwriting. The GDP negotiated with IFSA and the AIA for access to this data for independent analysis. Applications from 288 individuals who had disclosed a genetic test result included products for cover for death, trauma/crisis, income protection/disability and total and permanent disablement. A total of 81% (234/288) contained usable data for analysis. These cases involved the genetic conditions haemochromatosis (71%), Huntington disease (12%) and breast/ovarian cancer (6%). In 49% of cases, the genetic test result was described as the only influencing factor and of these, 32% involved a "positive" genetic test result. Whilst underwriting in most cases appeared to be reasonable, the article highlights several cases involving disclosure of a positive predictive test result for breast/ovarian cancer that required further investigation.     

Context effects and observer bias--implications for forensic odontology

Psychologists have long recognized the effects of contextual and extraneous information on decision making. Such information renders the subject susceptible to both motivational and cognitive bias; yet, it is difficult to assess the extent to which these influence forensic odontologists opinions as there have been no studies to date on this subject. This article explores the various types of contextual effects and biasing influences that potentially impact on the analysis of bitemarks in forensic odontology. It appears that the current practice of bitemark analysis is rich in sources of potentially biasing influences. In addition to the fundamental recognition that some form of bias is likely to exist, ways in which these should be minimized include: separation of the collection and analysis phases; limiting the amount of contextual information available to the odontologist responsible for the analysis; and ensuring that evidence that is ambiguous or of poor quality is identified as such prior to analysis.     

Physical components of soft-tissue ballistic wounding and their involvement in the generation of blood backspatter*

Gunshot backspatter comprises biological material expelled backward through bullet entry holes. Crime scene investigators analyze backspatter patterns to infer wounding circumstances. An understanding of the mechanism of backspatter generation, and the relationship between spatter patterns and bullet and tissue characteristics, would enhance the predictive value of such analysis. We examined soft-tissue ballistic wounding responses to determine the underlying components and how these might be relevant to the generation of backspatter. We identified five mechanistic components to ballistic wounding (elastic, viscous, crushing, cutting, and thermal), each related to mechanical disciplines (respectively, solid mechanics, fluid mechanics, fracture mechanics, rheology, and thermodynamics). We identified potential roles for these five components in backspatter formation and provide a scenario whereby a sequence of events incorporating these components could lead to backspatter generation and expulsion. This research provides a framework for the mathematical representation, and subsequent computational predictive modeling, of backspatter generation and pattern formation.     

Communication error management in law enforcement interactions: a receiver’s perspective

Two experiments explore the effect of law enforcement officers’ communication errors and their response strategies on a suspect’s trust in the officer; established rapport and hostility; and, the amount and quality of information shared. Students were questioned online by an exam board member about exam fraud (N_study1 ?=?188) or by a police negotiator after they had stolen money and barricaded themselves (N_study2 ?=?184). Unknown to participants, the online utterances of the law enforcement officer were pre-programmed to randomly assign them to a condition in a 2(Error: factual, judgment)?×?3(Response: contradict, apologize, accept) factorial design, or to control where no error was made. Our findings show that making (judgment) errors seem more detrimental for affective trust and rapport in a suspect interview, while no such effects appeared in a crisis negotiation. Notably, we found a positive effect of errors, as more information was being shared. The ultimate effect of the error was dependent on the response: accept was effective in re-establishing rapport and decreasing hostility, while contradict threatens it. Accept seems more effective for the willingness to provide information in a suspect interview, while apologize seems more effective for affective trust and rapport in a crisis negotiation.     

Validation studies in forensic odontology – Part 1: Accuracy of radiographic matching

As part of a series of studies aimed at validating techniques in forensic odontology, this study aimed to validate the accuracy of ante-mortem (AM)/postmortem (PM) radiographic matching by dentists and forensic odontologists. This study used a web-based interface with 50 pairs of AM and PM radiographs from real casework, at varying degrees of difficulty. Participants were shown both radiographs as a pair and initially asked to decide if they represented the same individual using a yes/no binary choice forced-decision. Participants were asked to assess their level of confidence in their decision, and to make a conclusion using one of the ABFO (American Board of Forensic Odontology), INTERPOL (International Criminal Police Organisation) and DVISys? (DVI System International, Plass Data Software) identification scale degrees. The mean false-positive rate using the binary choice scale was 12%. Overall accuracy was 89% using this model, however, 13% of participants scored below 80%. Only 25% of participants accurately answered yes or no > 90% of the time, with no individual making the correct yes/no decision for all 50 pairs of radiographs. Non-odontologists (lay participants) scored poorly, with a mean accuracy of only 60%. Use of the graded ABFO, DVISYS and INTERPOL scales resulted in general improvements in performance, with the false-positive and false-negative rates falling to approximately 2% overall. Inter-examiner agreement in assigning scale degrees was good (ICC = 0.64), however there was little correlation between confidence and both accuracy or agreement among practitioners. These results suggest that use of a non-binary scale is supported over a match/non-match call as it reduces the frequency of false positives and negatives. The use of the terms “possible” and “insufficient information” in the same scale appears to create confusion, reducing inter-examiner agreement. The lack of agreement between higher-performing and lower-performing groups suggests that there is an inconsistency in the cognitive processes used to determine similarity between radiographs.     

Political culture,state elites and regional security in West Africa

This article analyses the dominant patterns of political culture among West Africa's state elites in an attempt to understand what standards, beliefs and principles they cherish. We suggest that although there are significant differences across the region's states, the dominant political culture can be characterised as neopatrimonial, that is, systems based on personalised structures of authority where patron–client relationships operate behind a façade of ostensibly rational state bureaucracy. In order to explore these issues the article proceeds in four parts. After providing a definition of political culture and why it is an important topic of analysis, we examine the central characteristics of the political culture held by state elites in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region. The section ‘The Nigerian factor’ briefly discusses some of the malign effects that this culture has had upon governance and political economy issues in the regional giant, Nigeria. The final section explores whether the region's elites are living up to their own claims that they are embarking upon a serious attempt to engage in state reconstruction or are instead simply searching for alternative ways to sell their more traditional concern with regime protection. We conclude that, without a fundamental recasting of the political culture guiding the region's elites, a security culture that prioritises democracy and human security is unlikely to emerge within ECOWAS.