Changing biases in the operation of the UK's electoral system, 1950–97

The biased outcomes of recent British general elections, whereby the two main parties (Conservative and Labour) would have achieved different percentages of the seats in the House of Commons for the same percentages of the votes cast, are explored, using a method of bias decomposition developed by a New Zealand political scientist. Overall, the situation changed markedly between 1950 and 1997: the biases in the system strongly favoured the Conservatives in the 1950s and early 1960s, but Labour in 1992 and 1997. Examination of the seven components of the bias measure shows that most of these moved in Labour's favour over the 50-year period, with a major shift between 1992 and 1997 because of the greater geographical efficiency of the Labour party's vote at the latter date: reasons for this are suggested.     

Analysis of Delta9-tetrahydrocannabinol in oral fluid samples using solid-phase extraction and high-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization mass spectrometry

An analytical method using solid-phase extraction (SPE) and high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) has been developed and validated for the confirmation of Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in oral fluid samples. Oral fluid was extracted using Bond Elut LRC-Certify solid-phase extraction columns (10 cm(3), 300 mg) and elution performed with n-hexane/ethyl acetate. Quantitation made use of the selected ion-recording mode (SIR) using the most abundant characteristic ion [THC+H(+)], m/z 315.31 and the fragment ion, m/z 193.13 for confirmation, and m/z 318.00 for the protonated internal standard, [d(3)-THC+H(+)]. The method proved to be precise for THC, in terms of both intra-day and inter-day analyses, with coefficients of variation less than 10%, and the calculated extraction efficiencies for THC ranged from 76 to 83%. Calibration standards spiked with THC between 2 and 100 ng/mL showed a linear relationship (r(2)=0.999). The method presented was applied to the oral fluid samples taken from the volunteers during the largest music event in Portugal, named Rock in Rio-Lisboa. Oral fluid was collected from 40 persons by expectoration and with Salivette. In 55% of the samples obtained by expectorating, THC was detected with concentration ranges from 1033 to 6552 ng/mL and in 45% of cases THC was detected at concentrations between 51 and 937 ng/mL. However, using Salivette collection, 26 of the 40 cases had an undetectable THC.     

Y-chromosome STR haplotypes in Sweden

A total of 708 men, with Swedish names, from different parts of Sweden have been typed for the Y-chromosome minimal haplotype STR markers DYS19, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393 and DYS385. Of these, 403 men were of geographically undefined Swedish origin and the rest, 305, from seven defined geographical regions. PCR-products were detected by ABI377 using sequenced allelic ladders. An evaluation of the 708 chromosomes revealed 423 different haplotypes. Only 100 of the haplotypes were found more than once. The over all haplotype diversity was 0.994. The haplotype 14, 12, 28, 23, 10, 11, 13, 14-14 has the highest frequency of 5.79% and is significantly Swedish, when compared to other European populations.     

Road Closed: Evaluating the Judicial Bypass Provision of the Pennsylvania Abortion Control Act

This paper examines the extent to which Pennsylvania county courts are prepared to implement the judicial bypass provision of the state's abortion statute. Under the Pennsylvania Abortion Control Act it is illegal for physicians to perform abortions on pregnant minors without parental consent. The constitutionality of this requirement has been upheld, but only when states provide a mechanism allowing a minor to bypass parental involvement. The Pennsylvania statute includes a judicial bypass provision that is formally consistent with legal precedent. However, based on a study of how county courts respond to inquiries into the judicial bypass procedure, this paper demonstrates that most courthouses are not prepared to implement or provide accurate information on bypass proceedings. Since the constitutionality of parental involvement requirements is conditioned on the availability of a bypass option, the paper argues that the courts' lack of readiness poses a significant threat to the rights of pregnant minors.     

The ambiguities of Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil certification: internal incoherence,governance rescaling and state transformation

Asia Europe Journal - There are persistent tensions of both a technical and political nature between Southeast Asia’s two major palm oil producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, and the...     

Future reviews

Yet more on the Islamic revival

The Islamic Impulse. Edited by Barbara Freyer Stowasser. London & Sydney: Croom Helm with Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. 1987. 329pp. £25.00hb

From Nationalism to Revolutionary Islam. Edited by Said Amir Arjomand. London: Macmillan, with St Antony's College, Oxford. 1984. 256pp. £33.00hb

Islam and the Political Economy of Meaning: Comparative Studies of Muslim Discourse. Edited by William R Roff. London: Croom Helm. 1987. 295pp. £25.00hb

Minorities and the problem of the state

The Elementary Structures of Political Life: Rural Development in Pahlavi Iran. Grace E Goodell. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 1985. 362pp. n/p

Islam and Resistance in Afghanistan. Olivier Roy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1986. 253pp. £27.50hb/£9.95pb

The State, Religion, and Ethnic Politics: Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. Edited by Ali Banuazizi and Myron Weiner. Syracuse, New York: Syracuse University Press. 1986. 464pp. $35.00hb

Iran's revolution reappraised

Iran: A Revolution in Turmoil. Edited by Haleh Afshar. London: Macmillan. 1985. 262pp. £25.00hb/£8.95pb

The Iranian Revolution and the Islamic Republic. Edited by Nikki R Keddie and Eric Hooglund. Syracuse, New York: Syracuse University Press. 1986. 246pp. $14.95pb

The Spirit of Allah: Khomeini and the Islamic Revolution. Amir Taheri. London: Hutchinson. 1985. 350pp. £14.95hb

All Fall Down: America's Tragic Encounter with Iran. Gary Sick. New York: Random House. 1985. 366pp. $19.95hb

Revolutionary Iran: Challenge and Response in the Middle East. R K Ramazani. London: Johns Hopkins University Press. 1986. 311pp. £21.60hb

The Left in Contemporary Iran: Ideology, Organization and the Soviet Connection. Sepehr Zabih. London: Croom Helm. 1986. 239pp. £25.00hb

Iran: At War with History. John W Limbert. Boulder, Colorado: Westview (distributed in the UK by IPI). 1987. 186pp. £24.00hb

The discovery of the Lebanese Shia

Militant Islamic Movements in Lebanon: Origins, Social Basis, and Ideology. Edited by Marius Deeb. Washington, DC: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, Georgetown. University. 1986. 27pp. n/p

The Vanished Imam: Musa al‐Sadr and the Shia of Lebanon. Fouad Ajami. London: I B Tauris. 1986. 228pp. £15.95hb

Amal and the Shi'a: Struggle for the Soul of Lebanon. Augustus Richard Norton. Austin, Texas: University of Texas Press. 1987. 238pp. $10.95pb

The beguiling Gulf Cooperation Council

Majlis al‐Taawun al‐Khaliji: Al‐Itar al‐Siyasi wal‐Istratiji (The Gulf Cooperation Council: The Political and Strategic Framework). Abdallah Fahd al‐Nafisi. London: Ta‐Ha Publishers. 1982. 72pp. £2.50pb

Al‐Itar Al‐Qanuni wal‐Siyasi Li‐Majlis al‐Taawun al‐Khaliji (The Legal and Political Framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council). Abdallah al‐Ishal. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 1983. 291pp. $10.00pb

Majlis al‐Taawun al‐Khaliji: Azmat al‐Siyasat wal‐Shariyat (The Gulf Cooperation Council: The Crisis of Politics and Legitimacy). Majid al‐Majid. London: Ta‐Ha Publishers. 1986. 99pp. £2.50pb

Majlis al‐Taawun li‐Dual al‐Khalij al‐Arabiyyah: Ruyat Mustaqbaliyat, Dirasat Qanuniyat, Siyasiyat, Iqtisadiyat (The Gulf Cooperation Council: Future Developments—A Legal, Political and Economic Study). Yahya Halmi Rajab. Kuwait: Maktabat al‐Arubat lil‐Nashr wal‐Tawzi. 1983. 528pp. $12.00pb     

Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.     

DNA analysis in perpetrator identification of terrorism-related disaster: Suicide bombing of the Australian Embassy in Jakarta 2004

We report the strategy that we employed to identify the perpetrator of a suicide car bombing in front of the Australian Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia, on 9 September 2004. The bomb was so massive that only small tissue pieces of the perpetrator could be recovered, preventing conventional approach to the identification of the bomber, necessitating the introduction of DNA analysis as the primary means for perpetrator identification. Crime scene investigation revealed the trajectory of the bomb blast, which was used to guide the collection of charred tissue fragments of the perpetrator. Mitochondrial DNA analysis was first conducted on 17 tissue fragments, recovered over large areas of the trajectory to, (a) confirm that they are of a common source, i.e. the perpetrator, and thus (b) establish the mtDNA HV1 sequence profile of the perpetrator. The mtDNA of the perpetrator matches that of a maternally related family member of one of four suspects. Standard autosomal STR analysis confirmed the identification. This case is of interest as an illustration of a successful application of DNA analysis as the primary means of disaster perpetrator identification.     

Accountability and effectiveness of NGOs: adapting business tools successfully

The central argument of this article is that many of the tools developed to strengthen for-profit businesses can be applied to NGOs to make them more effective and accountable. The authors address a gap in the development literature by defining and describing how business tools can be effectively transferred to NGOs. They examine the implementation of ISO 9000 Quality Standard by one NGO, the Cambodia Trust. The experiences of the Cambodia Trust demonstrate that business tools have a place in NGO management. The article also questions the extent to which the Cambodian experience can be seen as best practice for NGOs.     

Analysing the European Union's responses to organized crime through different securitization lenses

In the past 30 years, organized crime (OC) has shifted from being an issue of little, or no concern, to being considered one of the key security threats facing the European Union (EU), the economic and political fabric of its society and its citizens. The purpose of this article is to understand how OC has come to be understood as one of the major security threats in the EU, by applying different lenses of Securitization Theory (ST). More specifically, the research question guiding this article is whether applying different ST approaches can lead us to draw differing conclusions as to whether OC has been successfully securitized in the EU. Building on the recent literature that argues that this theoretical framework has branched out into different approaches, this article wishes to contrast two alternative views of how a security problem comes into being, in order to verify whether different approaches can lead to diverging conclusions regarding the same phenomenon. The purpose of this exercise is to contribute to the further development of ST by pointing out that the choice in approach bears direct consequences on reaching a conclusion regarding the successful character of a securitization process. Starting from a reflection on ST, the article proceeds with applying a “linguistic approach” to the case study, which it then contrasts with a “sociological approach”. The article proposes that although the application of a “linguistic approach” seems to indicate that OC has become securitized in the EU, it also overlooks a number of elements, which the “sociological approach” renders visible and which lead us to refute the initial conclusion.