Boris Annenkoff: A central Asian bayard

Far East

The Origins of the Cultural Revolution. Vol. 1: Contradictions among the People, 1956–1957. By Roderick MacFarquhar. London, Oxford University Press for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1974. Pp. 439. Illus. Index. £5.50.

Capital Formation in Mainland China, 1952–1965. By Kang Chao. Berkeley, Los Angeles and London, University of California Press, 1974. Pp. 178. Statistics. Bibliog. Index. £6.00.

Land Reform in the People's Republic of China. By John Wong. New York, Praeger; London, Pall Mall Press, 1974. Pp. 319. £9.50.

The Nine Sacred Mountains of China: An Illustrated Record of Pilgrimages made in the years 1935–1936. By Mary A. Mullikin and Anna M. Hotchkis. Hong Kong, Vetch and Lee, 1973. Pp. 156. Map. Illus. Index. HK $75.00.

Economic Institutional Change in Tokugawa Japan: Osaka and the Kinai Cotton Trade. By William B. Hauser. Cambridge University Press, 1974. Pp. 239. Maps. Tables. Bibliog. Index. £6.00.

South‐East Asia

Twenty Years Indonesian Foreign Policy 1945–65. By Ide Anak Agung Gde Agung. The Hague, Mouton, 1974. Pp. 640. Bibliog. Index. 69 guilders.

Indonesia After the 1971 Elections. Edited by Oey Hong Lee. London, Oxford University Press for the University of Hull (Hull Monographs on South‐East Asia No. 5), 1974. Pp. 116. Index. £2.00.

A Nation in the Making: The Philippines and the United States, 1899–1921. By Peter W. Stanley. Cambridge, Mass., and London, Harvard University Press, 1974. Pp. 340. Bibliog. Index. £7.00.

Central Asia

Travels into Bokhara, together with a Narrative of a Voyage on the Indus. By Sir Alexander Burnes, FRS, with a new introduction by Major‐General James Lunt, CBE. Karachi, Oxford University Press, 1973. 3 vols. Map. Illus. Index. £14.95 the set (Vol. 3 £4.25).

Central Asian Review 1953–1971: Complete Contents. Subject Index to accompany the 35 mm. microfilm edition of Central Asian Review. London, Central Asian Research Centre, 1973. Pp. 49.

Afghanistan. By Louis Dupree. Princeton University Press, 1973. Pp. 760. Maps. Illus. Appendices. Bibliog. Index. $22.50.

South Asia

Radical Politics in South Asia. Edited by Paul R. Brass and Marcus F. Franda. Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press, 1973. Pp. 449. Index. £6.75.

Population, Politics and the Future of Southern Asia. Edited by W. Howard Wriggins and James F. Guyot. New York and London, Columbia University Press, 1974. Pp. 402. Index. £4.25.

The Transfer of Power 1942–7. Vol. IV: The Bengal Famine and the New Viceroyalty, 15 June 1943–31 August 1944. Edited by Nicholas Mansergh and E. W. R. Lumby. London, HMSO, 1973. Pp. 1,295. Appendix. Glossary. Index. £13.00.

India's Revolution: Gandhi and the Quit India Movement. By Francis G. Hutchins. Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press; London, Oxford University Press, 1974. Pp. ix+326. Bibliog. Index. £8.00.

A New System of Slavery. The Export of Indian Labour Overseas. 1830–1920. By Hugh Tinker. London, Oxford University Press for the Institute of Race Relations, 1974. Pp. 432. Maps. Illus. Bibliog. Index. £5.75.

A Matter of Honour: an account of the Indian Army, its officers and men. By Philip Mason. London, Jonathan Cape, 1974. Pp. 580. Maps. Bibliog. Index. £5.75.

Sind: Before the Muslim Conquest (History of Sind Series, Volume II). By H. T. Lambrick. Hyderabad, Oxford University Press, 1974. Pp. 217. Maps. Notes. Indices. £3.90.

Politics in Sri Lanka 1947–1973. By A. Jeyaratnam Wilson. London, Macmillan, 1974. Pp. 347. Index. £7.50.

Middle East

Information and the Arab Cause. By M. Abdel‐Kadir Hatem. London, Longman, 1974. Pp. 320. Index. £4.75.

Survival or Hegemony? The Foundations of Israeli Foreign Policy. By Samuel J. Roberts. Baltimore and London, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1974. Pp. 162. Bibliog. Index. £1.40.

The United Arab Emirates. An Economic and Social Survey. By K. G. Fenelon. London, Longman, 1973. Pp. 145. Appendices Bibliog. Index. £3.00.

Muscat and Oman: the End of an Era. By Ian Skeet. London, Faber &; Faber, 1974. Pp. 224. Illus. Bibliog. Appendices. Index. £3.95.

Modernization Without Revolution: Lebanon's Experience. By Elie Adib Salem. Bloomington and London, Indiana University Press, 1973. Pp. 174. Index. £4.20.

The Economic Development of Iran. A Recent Survey with Projections to 1981. By Robert E. Looney. New York, Praeger; London, Pall Mall Press, 1974. Pp. 199. Bibliog. £6.50.

Among the Dervishes. By O. M. Burke. London, Octagon Press, 1973. Pp. 203. Bibliog. £1.75.

Philosophy

Teachings of Rumi: the Masnavi. Abridged and translated by E. H. Whinfield. London, Octagon Press, 1973. Pp. 330. £4.00.

The Spirit of the East. By the Sirdar Ikbal Ali Shah. London, Octagon Press, 1973. Pp. 277. £3.50.

Memoirs

With Great Truth and Respect. By Paul Gore‐Booth. London, Constable, 1974. Pp. 440. Illus. Index. £5.00.     

Early Adolescents’ Social Standing in Peer Groups: Behavioral Correlates of Stability and Change

Sociometric nominations, social cognitive maps, and self-report questionnaires were completed in consecutive years by 327 students (56% girls) followed longitudinally from grade 7 to grade 8 to examine the stability of social standing in peer groups and correlates of changes in social standing. Social preference, perceived popularity, network centrality, and leadership were moderately stable from grade 7 to grade 8. Alcohol use and relational aggression in grade 7 predicted changes in social preference and centrality, respectively, between grade 7 and grade 8, but these effects were moderated by gender and ethnicity. Changes in social standing from grade 7 to grade 8 were unrelated to grade 8 physical aggression, relational aggression, and alcohol use after controlling for the grade 7 corollaries of these behaviors. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for understanding links between social standing and problem behaviors during adolescence.

Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence

Structured analytic techniques (SATs) are intended to improve intelligence analysis by checking the two canonical sources of error: systematic biases and random noise. Although both goals are achievable, no one knows how close the current generation of SATs comes to achieving either of them. We identify two root problems: (1) SATs treat bipolar biases as unipolar. As a result, we lack metrics for gauging possible over-shooting—and have no way of knowing when SATs that focus on suppressing one bias (e.g., over-confidence) are triggering the opposing bias (e.g., under-confidence); (2) SATs tacitly assume that problem decomposition (e.g., breaking reasoning into rows and columns of matrices corresponding to hypotheses and evidence) is a sound means of reducing noise in assessments. But no one has ever actually tested whether decomposition is adding or subtracting noise from the analytic process—and there are good reasons for suspecting that decomposition will, on balance, degrade the reliability of analytic judgment. The central shortcoming is that SATs have not been subject to sustained scientific of the sort that could reveal when they are helping or harming the cause of delivering accurate assessments of the world to the policy community.     

Judging the “Vapid and Hollow Charade”: Citizen Evaluations and the Candor of U.S. Supreme Court Nominees

Supreme Court confirmation hearings have been famously called a “vapid and hollow charade” by Elena Kagan. Indeed, perceptions of nominees’ refusal to answer questions about pending cases, prominent political issues, or give any hint of their ideological leanings have become a cornerstone of the modern confirmation process. We investigate the extent to which this reticence to speak of their ideological views, or candor, influences how individuals evaluate the nominee. To this end, we present the results of a survey experiment which examines how support for a hypothetical Supreme Court nominee is affected by information, especially when a nominee is presented to be very forthright or very reticent in answering ideological questions during the confirmation hearings. We find that while partisan compatibility with the president is the main determinant of support for a nominee, nominees who refuse to answer ideological questions can bolster support from respondents who would not support them on partisan grounds. We supplement these findings with observational state-level support data from real nominees over the last 40 years.     

Brexit: A Cliff Edge or a Small Bump in the Road?

It is becoming increasingly accepted, not least by the Prime Minister and opposition leadership, that the negotiation of a comprehensive trade relationship with the EU is necessary to prevent the UK economy falling off a ‘cliff edge’. This concern is shaping the UK's strategy towards negotiations with the EU and has provided at least part of the motivation for the UK to consider requesting a transition period to facilitate the Brexit process. But how accurate are these fears? What evidence is there for the existence of a ‘cliff edge’? How disastrous would it be for the UK to revert to trading with the EU on the same basis as most other countries in the world, namely according to World Trade Organisation rules? This article seeks to address these issues and it highlights a number of implications for policy makers which flow from understanding the available evidence a little more clearly.     

看南京 想武汉——武汉与南京经济发展比较

武汉与南京是两个非常相似的城市,主要差别在于两地区位环境不同。新世纪以来,南京实现了对武汉的全面超越,这有区位环境的原因,也有主观努力的因素。进一步而言,在基本相同的区位环境下,由于主观方面的欠缺,南京相对于长三角周边兄弟城市,也存在发展滞后的问题。由此可以断定,改革开放三十年,武汉发展相对滞后,主观方面的问题不容忽视。主要问题有如下几点：思想解放不够;抓经济发展的工作力度不足;政府行政管理体制上计划经济烙印较重;经济结构不太合理;外延式、粗放型传统经济增长模式尚未得到根本改变;城市文化传统中缺乏创业创新精神成分等。     

How Americans Think About Trade: Reconciling Conflicts Among Money, Power, and Principles

Trade has again emerged as a controversial issue in America, yet we know little about the ideas that guide American thinking on these questions. By combining traditional survey methods with experimental manipulation of problem content, this study explores the ideational landscape among elite Americans and pays particular attention to how elite Americans combine their ideas about commerce with their ideas about national security and social justice. We find that most American leaders think like intuitive neoclassical economists and that only a minority think along intuitive neorealist or Rawlsian lines. Among the mass public, in contrast, a majority make judgments like intuitive neorealists and intuitive Rawlsians. Although elite respondents see international institutions as promising vehicles in principle, in practice they favor exploiting America's advantage in bilateral bargaining power over granting authority to the World Trade Organization. The distribution of these ideas in America is not arrayed neatly along traditional ideological divisions. To understand the ideational landscape, it is necessary to identify how distinctive mentaal models—mercantilist, neorealist, egalitarian, and neoclassical economic—sensitize or desensitize people to particular aspects of geopolitical problems, an approach we call cognitive interactionism.