An integrated perspective on the three potential sources of partisan bias: Malapportionment, turnout differences, and the geographic distribution of party vote shares

Partisan bias refers to an asymmetry in the way party vote share is translated into seats, i.e., a situation where some parties are able to win a given share of seats with a lesser (share of the) vote than is true for other parties. Any districted system is potentially subject to partisan biases. We show that there are three potential sources of partisan bias: (1) differences in the nature of the vote shares of the winning candidates of different parties that give rise to differences in the proportion of each party's votes that come to be ‘wasted’—differences which arise because of the nature of the geographic distribution of partisan support; (2) turnout rate differences across districts that are linked to the partisan vote shares in those districts, such that certain parties are more likely to have ‘cheap seats’ vis-à-vis turnout; and (3) malapportionment. In the context of two-party competition over single-member districts we provide a simple formulation to calculate the independent effect of each of these three factors. We illustrate our analysis with a calculation of the magnitude and direction of effects of the three determinants of partisan bias in elections to the US House and the US Senate in 1984, 1986 and 1988; then we consider how to extend the approach to a system with a mix of single- and multi-member districts or to a weighted voting system such as the US electoral college. We then apply the method to calculate the nature and sources of partisan bias in the 1984 and 1988 US presidential elections.     

The prohibition-repeal amendments: A natural experiment in interest group influence

The pattern of state support for Prohibition (18th Amendment, 1919) and Repeal (21st Amendment, 1933) is analyzed and compared. This comparison is important because Prohibition is the only amendment ever to be repealed. The main thesis is that there was no wholesale change in preferences of citizens. Instead, producer interests failed to mobilize effectively in 1919, and the coupling of moral and economic arguments that worked in 1919 broke apart in 1933. Regression analysis is conducted on state legislatures (for Prohibition) and state referenda on convention delegates (for Repeal), so states are observations in the cross-sectional regression analysis. The results broadly support the main thesis.     

Partisan politics and public finance: Changes in public spending in the industrialized democracies, 1955–1989

This paper evaluates the role that partisan politics plays in altering public spending levels. The analysis covers over three decades of data on the developments of the public sectors in 16 OECD countries. The results of the analysis lend firm support to the partisan politics model. Of special note is the distinction between the electorate' and the government' ideological preferences and the dominant role that the former plays. The results also suggest, contrary to conventional wisdom, that partisan political influences have not been eliminated with the tightening of linkages to the international economy.     

A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Memories of half a life ago

A study of the recollections of childhood of a 12-year-old girl is placed in the context of developmental perceptions of time. Specifically, the transition from wishful to more realistic perceptions of the future is discussed, along with the growing capacity of the older child to incorporate experiences of the past into the present. The role of time perception in the formation of identity is presented from the perspective of psychological maturation and the growing comprehension of social roles and personal competence.In order to preserve confidentiality, I have used a fictitious name for a real family. In addition, the family has granted permission to publish this paper.Received B. A. from Harvard University and M.A. and Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in the Department of Sociology. Interests lie in the areas of social theory, poverty, psychotherapy, youth and adolescence, and perceptions of time.     

Conflict in the home environment of adolescents from divorced families: A longitudinal analysis

The purpose of this study was to examine conflict in the home environment of adolescents from divorced families across a 3-year period. Adolescents from intact (106) and mother-custody divorced (60) families participated. Interparental conflict and parent-adolescent relations were assessed. Results indicated that adolescents from divorced families did not experience more conflictual home environments than those from intact families. In fact, interparental relations after the first year and parent-adolescent relations in general appeared to be less conflictual in divorced families. Limitations and implications of the findings are discussed.     

The Prevalence of Mental Illness Among Inmates in a Rural State

A limited number of recent empirical studies suggest that inmates suffer from high rates of serious mental illness. Different explanations are offered depending on the type of institution: jail or prison. The literature is based largely on urban samples and does not offer comparisons of rates across types of institution within a single study. The present study examined a random sample of 213 jail and prison inmates in a rural state using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule (III-R). Among jail inmates there was little evidence of high rates of serious mental illness, suggesting the criminalization of mental illness may not be as evident in rural settings as urban areas. Among prison inmates, however, high rates of mental disorders were found, supporting previous findings in urban and rural jurisdictions. Implications of the findings are discussed in the context of a consolidated correctional system.     

Assessing and predicting the competency of juvenile court volunteer probation officers

The volunteer movement in criminal justice settings is burgeoning. It has been estimated that by the end of 1982 there will be over one million volunteers working in criminal-justice-related functions. The volunteer role that appears to be increasing most rapidly is that of the one-to-one counseling relationship with delinquent and young adult offenders on formal or informal probation. While the demand for volunteer probation officers is increasing rapidly, few of our courts have attempted to develop and validate screening instruments capable of assessing and predicting the general competency of the volunteer. The need for such instruments has been emphasized recently by Judge Keith J. Leenhouts, Director of Volunteers in Probation, a division of the National Council on Crime and Delinquency. The present study attempts to assess the usefulness of one such potential screening device, the Critical Incident Response Test (CIRT) developed by Traitel (1972) and others at the Oakland County Juvenile Court in Pontiac, Michigan. It is hoped that this study will motivate other probation departments and court volunteer programs to develop and validate similar selection instruments.