新疆的痛与美——一个美国人的旅行日记

新疆朋友的心态让我想起美国人对9·11的反应,也就是一种心理转折,尽管看起来正常,但事实上一切都改变了。9·11后,每次遇到另一个美国人我们都会分享当天的经验,我们当然会谈到恐怖主义,最初从憎恨的感觉说起,几个星期和几个月以后从永不褪色的不安全感说起。我们感到愤慨时,这个恶劣的行为一方面非常简单,一方面又难以理解。     

Sequential torts and bilateral harm

This paper analyzes care incentives of individuals in a bilateral-harm setting if care choices are sequential. We find that the efficient outcome is not guaranteed under any liability rule considered, irrespective of whether information is perfect or imperfect. Furthermore, it is no longer possible to generally rank liability rules according to their induced social costs. These findings are in strong contrast to the sequential-torts setting in which harm is unilateral.     

Construct validity,reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability

Background. There have been a number of developments in the assessment of dynamic risk in the criminological literature. The dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) has been developed to facilitate the measurement of dynamic factors of risk for offenders with intellectual disability. Method. The study was designed to assess the construct validity, reliability and predictive utility of the DRAMS in 23 male forensic patients in a high secure setting. Predictions were made against independently collected incident data. Concurrent validity was assessed against the Ward Anger Rating Scale (WARS). Results. A reformulation of the individual section variables according to convergent and discriminant correlational analysis revealed Cronbach's alpha levels of >.8 for all sections apart from mood (alpha .750) and items retained to facilitate clinical information (alpha ?.017). Two hundred pairs of WARS and DRAMS assessments revealed orderly sectional correlations. The sections of mood, antisocial behaviour, and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size as did total DRAMS score. There were highly significant differences between assessments taken 1 or 2 days prior to an incident and control assessments conducted at least 7 days from an incident. Conclusions. The reformulated DRAMS has good construct and concurrent validity. It appears to be a reliable assessment tool and informs on risk levels relating to stable and acute proximal factors. It appears as an important addition to the utility of risk assessments for this population.     

"A brilliant ball of fire." The sabotage of United Airlines Flight 629

Among the known causes of aircraft disasters, sabotage is perhaps the most terrifying and difficult to comprehend. Bombs have been exploded in at least 34 commercial aircraft, with the resultant loss of more than 300 lives. Motives for these acts include profit, the deaths of certain persons, and politics. On November 1, 1955, United Airlines Flight 629, bound to Denver-Portland, exploded and burned in flight near Longmont, Colorado, a few minutes after takeoff, with the loss of all 44 on board. Investigation revealed that the plane had been destroyed by the explosion of a bomb that had been placed in the rear luggage hold in Denver. Twelve days after the disaster, John Gilbert Graham, the son of one of the female passengers, was arrested and charged with murder. He reportedly admitted placing a time bomb on board the aircraft, apparently in order to collect $37,500.00 in life insurance that he had taken on his mother's life. Though he soon recanted, he was convicted of murder and was executed. The potential for additional such crimes remains.     

Why do only some people who support parties actually join them? Evidence from Britain

What makes people join a political party is one of the most commonly studied questions in research on party members. Nearly all this research, however, is based on talking to people who have actually joined parties. This article simultaneously analyses surveys of members of political parties in Britain and surveys of non-member supporters of those same parties. This uniquely enables us to model the decision to join parties. The results suggest that most of the elements that constitute the influential ‘General Incentives Model’ are significant. But it also reveals that, while party supporters imagine that selective benefits, social norms and opposing rival parties’ policies are key factors in members’ decisions to join a party, those who actually do so are more likely to say they are motivated by attachments to their party’s values, policies and leaders, as well as by an altruistic desire to support democracy more generally.