An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end

This paper implements discrete-time survival models to ascertain the determinants behind specific endings for terrorist groups during 1970–2007. Based on multinomial logit regressions, we estimate the hazard probabilities associated with three endings for terrorist groups: splintering from internal factors, being defeated by force, and joining the political process or achieving victory. We find that different covariates differentially impact each of these endings. In a second exercise, we split our sample of 586 terrorist groups into those that started before and after the beginning of 1990. In so doing, we find that survival factors differ between the two cohorts of groups. For both exercises, the determinants of survival comprise terrorist groups’ goals, their tactics and size, and base-country characteristics. Robustness tests conclude the paper.     

Individuals lacking ridge detail: A case study in adermatoglyphia

Adermatoglyphia is a very rare autosomal‐dominant condition that is genetically inherited and causes an individual to be born without conventional ridge detail on either their palmar or plantar surfaces (the fingers and palms of the hands and the toes and the soles of the feet). While adermatoglyphia has been the focus of medical and genetic research, no previous research has been conducted with regard to the forensic recovery and identification of marks from an adermatoglyphic individual. By observation of ridge detail donated by an adermatoglyphic subject, the study uses different methods in order to capture fingermarks (methods include: inked capture, livescan (biometric) capture, cyanoacrylate fuming, ninhydrin enhancement, and physical developer). Unusually, the purpose of this paper ends up presenting a number of examples of an absence of evidence; unsuccessful attempts made to capture and enhance fingerprint ridge detail. This is determined over a range of standard means including "live" donations by the adermatoglyphic subject onto the Livescan system, and enhancements of latent donations. The subject shows to leave either insubstantial fingermarks with no detail, or no mark whatsoever.     

Cuticular hydrocarbons as a tool for determining the age of Chrysomya rufifacies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) larvae

Calliphoridae are one of the most important insect groups encountered as evidence collected from a crime scene. Age determination of the immature stages of these necrophagous flies is an important step toward estimating the time of colonization and inferring a minimum postmortem interval (PMI_min) in most instances. To determine if the cuticular hydrocarbons could be used to establish whether the development stages yield characteristics profiles, allowing for age estimation, hydrocarbons were extracted from 1st and 2nd, as well as feeding and post‐feeding 3rd instar Chrysomya rufifacies, the hairy maggot blow fly. Extracted hydrocarbons were analyzed using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry with the aim to investigate the changes in chemical profiles of each larval stage. A total of 23 compounds were identified with most of them being alkanes (65%) with carbon chain lengths of 9–33 carbons, alkenes (18%), and methyl‐branched alkanes (17%). All the hydrocarbons except pentadecane (C15), hexadecane (C16), and nonacosane (C29) showed significant differences in their expression throughout larval development. For 1st instars, nonane was the most abundant (17% of the total hydrocarbons content) compound. Accounting for 11% and 10% of the cuticular hydrocarbons, tricosane and pentacosane, respectively, were the notable hydrocarbons in 2nd instars. For post‐feeding 3rd instars, hentriacontane and tritriacontane were present with relative abundances 18% and 15%, respectively. On average, there was a shift from low to high molecular weight hydrocarbons as the larvae aged. These results indicate the change in hydrocarbons makeup as larvae age and could potentially be used to determine the age of immature C. rufifacies and hence aid in PMI_min estimations. However, future research is needed to validate these results under natural conditions in the field.     

Authoritarian attitudes and support for radical right populists

ABSTRACT

This paper examines which parties attract support from people with authoritarian attitudes by comparing multi-party systems to a pure two-party system (the US). It proposes reasons why radical right populist (RRP) parties may serve as outlets for illiberal sentiments in multiparty systems, and offers reasons why such attitudes could correspond with support for the US Republican Party. Some have raised concerns about democratic deconsolidation in liberal democracies. There is limited evidence here consistent with deconsolidation. Politically authoritarian attitudes do exist among a small but non-trivial proportion of electorates in established democracies. In multiparty systems people with such attitudes were more likely to be supporters of smaller RRP parties that generally do not join government, but not centre-left or centre-right parties. However, US Republicans had supporters who resembled European RRP supporters in their politically authoritarian attitudes, and authoritarian attitudes were a notable predictor of support for Donald Trump in 2016.     

Research on the local regional similarity of automatic fingerprint identification system fingerprints based on close non-matches in a ten million people database—Taking the central region of whorl as an example

The local regional similarity of fingerprints has always been a hot issue in the field of fingerprint research. With the increasing size of ten-print databases, the appearance of close non-matches (CNMs) in automatic fingerprint identification system (AFIS) candidate lists has attracted increasing attention from forensic science departments worldwide. In this study, three categories (high-, medium-, and low-level) of standards for CNMs were established and 60 whorl samples were marked with different numbers of minutiae to explore the occurrence and influencing factors of CNMs in AFIS candidate lists based on a ten million people database. The results showed that all prints could be found with their corresponding CNMs. The average occurrence rate of CNMs for every query was 52.7% in the top 100 lists, and the most similar CNM was exactly the same in the local area of 12 coincidence points. CNMs appeared more in the middle and lower parts of the central region of the whorl. Moreover, shorter C2C distances and the same finger number and hand led to more CNMs being inspected. CNMs with higher similarity required a more extensive regional area and smaller minutiae density. We concluded that CNMs have a high occurrence rate in large-scale databases and many factors are closely related to them. Fingerprint examiners and researchers need to strengthen their understanding of CNMs to avoid the occurrence of misidentification like the Madrid bombings.     

Heat and let dye: Part II – Rapid heat-fixing of blood traces

Blood-contaminated shoeprints and footmarks contain valuable operational information as they may bind an individual who stepped in the crime scene with the incident and not merely with the location. As determining the age of a bloodstain remains a challenge, while processing the scene, it is difficult to determine whether the blood is completely, or partially, dry. Thus, executing a dye staining protocol may wash these marks away as they might still be soluble. However, to meet this challenge, it is possible to fix blood marks using heat. This study aims to find a solution for floor surfaces covered by heavier blood traces (shoeprints and footmarks). For this purpose, a new pseudo-operating device was constructed for examining the blood-fixing process of both mentioned trace types. Two trials were performed with depletion marks. The results revealed that fully developed fresh and heavily blood deposits were obtained by heating to 200°C for 7.5 min using the fixing device, followed by a staining protocol using amido black solution. The achieved sharp resolution of the examined bloody prints demonstrates that in certain cases the dehydration mechanism of heating is preferred over precipitating the proteins attributed to 5-sulfosalycilic acid; thus, reducing the risk of washing blood evidence while processing the crime scene.     

Terrorist group survival: ideology, tactics, and base of operations

The paper applies survival analysis to identify the determinants of terrorist group duration. Our sample includes 367 terrorist organizations that operated during 1970?C2007. Consistent with the theory, determinants of these groups?? survival include their tactics, sizes, ideological basis, regions of operation, and base-country characteristics. Cross-sectional and panel estimates are reported. Terrorist organizations fare better if they are larger in size, diversify their attack modes, are animated by religiosity rather than secular political goals, and base their operations in the Middle East or Africa. Groups?? longevity is bolstered by democratic institutions and an intermediate level of ethnic fractionalization at home.     

Who adopts MIND/FIND in INTERPOL��s fight against international crime and terrorism?

This article determines the key factors inducing INTERPOL countries to institute MIND/FIND, a technology which facilitates systematic searches of people, motor vehicles, and documents at international transit points. This integrated solution assists countries in curbing international crime and terrorism. Based on discrete-choice models, the analysis identifies income per capita, population, democratic freedoms, and anticipated searches for suspects as the key determinants of whether INTERPOL countries install MIND/FIND. Ethnic diversity, international arrivals, cost proxies, and arrests prior to adoption are not important considerations in decisions to install MIND/FIND. External financial support is an essential factor identifying likely non-adopters who installed MIND/FIND.     

A radiographic assessment of pediatric fracture healing and time since injury

Past studies and pediatric bone physiology indicate that younger individuals may heal at a faster rate. Additionally, in adults upper limb fractures heal faster than lower limb fractures; this trend is expected for pediatric fractures. This study aims to evaluate and compare rates of fracture repair in children based on age and skeletal element. Six stages are used to describe the bone repair process in 294 radiographs of tibial and radial fractures from 107 infants and young children. Healing rates are examined using ANOVA and Welch's t-test with a 95% confidence interval. Results indicate that younger individuals spend less time at stage 1, suggesting a delay in the start of healing. Furthermore, forearm fractures heal faster than leg fractures at stages 2 and 3, suggesting a role in the osseous reaction of bone healing. The healing schedule presented may allow the timing of injuries to be estimated from radiographs.     

Confocal microscopy analysis of breech face marks on fired cartridge cases from 10 consecutively manufactured pistol slides

Recent publications from the National Academy of Sciences have called for additional foundational research in the field of firearm and toolmark analysis. We examined test fires from 10 pistol slides with consecutively manufactured breech faces. A total of nine test fires from each pistol slide, for a total of 90 test fired cartridge cases, were compared using confocal microscopy combined with three-dimensional cross-correlation analysis algorithms. A total of 8010 comparisons were performed (720 matches and 7290 nonmatches). The average score for matches was 0.82 with a standard deviation of 0.06. The average score for nonmatches was 0.20 with a standard deviation of 0.03. Additionally, subclass toolmarks were observed on the breech faces, but the presence of subclass was not detected in the correlation analysis. There was no overlap of scores between matching and nonmatching test fires. This provides objective data that support the AFTE (Association of Firearms and Tool Mark Examiners) theory of identification.