Partner killing by men in cohabiting and marital relationships: a comparative, cross-national analysis of data from Australia and the United States

Using a national-level U.S. database, T. K. Shackelford (2001) calculated rates of uxoricide (the murder of a woman by her romantic partner) by relationship type (cohabiting or marital), by ages of the partners, and by the age difference between partners. Women in cohabiting relationships were 9 times more likely to be killed by their partner than were married women. Within marriages, the risk of uxoricide decreases with a woman's age. Within cohabiting relationships, middle-aged women were at greatest risk of uxoricide. The risk of uxoricide increased with greater age difference between partners. We sought to replicate the findings of Shackelford (2001) using a national-level database that includes information on more than 4,400 homicides that occurred in Australia between 1989 and 2002. Despite the higher rate of partner killing in the United States, and despite other cultural differences between the two countries, we replicated key patterns with the Australian data.     

Police research technology: Functional relations between juvenile citations and criminal offenses

In a multiple-reversal time-series design, additional plainclothes youth guidance officers were assigned to patrol and to issue juvenile warning citations in one of two target areas during school hours on weekdays. The presence and activity of these officers resulted in modest but consistent reductions in the number of criminal incidents reported in the target area. An untreated control area showed no consistent changes in the rates of criminal incidents. Issuance of juvenile citations appears to be a modestly effective crime control technology which may be implemented in a cost-efficient manner.     

A method for the determination of syringe needle punctures in rubber stoppers using stereoscopic light microscopy

The ability to accurately determine the number of syringe needle penetration holes through the rubber stoppers in pharmaceutical vials and rubber septa in intravenous (i.v.) line and bag ports has been a critical factor in a number of forensic cases involving the thefts of controlled substances or suspected homicide by lethal injection. In the early 1990s, the microscopy and microanalysis group of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Forensic Chemistry Center (FCC) developed and implemented a method (unpublished) to locate needle punctures in rubber pharmaceutical vial stoppers. In 1996, as part of a multiple homicide investigation, the Indiana State Police Laboratory (ISPL) contacted the FCC for information on a method to identify and count syringe needle punctures through rubber stoppers in pharmaceutical vials. In a joint project and investigation using the FCC's needle hole location method and applying a method of puncture site mapping developed by the ISPL, a systematic method was developed to locate, identify, count, and map syringe punctures in rubber bottle stoppers or i.v. bag ports using microscopic analysis. The method requires documentation of punctures on both sides of the rubber stoppers and microscopic analysis of each suspect puncture site. The final result of an analysis using the method is a detailed diagram of puncture holes on both sides of a questioned stopper and a record of the minimum number of puncture holes through a stopper.     

Terrorist success in hostage-taking missions: 1978–2010

This article investigates the determinants of logistical and negotiation successes in hostage-taking incidents using an expanded dataset that runs from 1978 to 2010. Unlike an earlier study, the current study has a rich set of negotiation variables in addition to political, geographical, and organizational variables associated with the perpetrators or targets of the attacks. The 33 years of data permit a split into two subperiods: 1978–1987 and 1988–2010, before and after the rise of religious fundamentalist terrorist groups. Logistical success depends on resource and target vulnerability proxies, while negotiation success hinges on bargaining variables. Among many novel findings, democracy significantly hampers logistical success throughout the entire period. Kidnappings, tropical climates, and high elevations foster logistical success. Religious fundamentalist terrorists’ logistical advantage during 1978–1987 was lost during 1988–2010. Abducting protected persons, making demands on the host country, and staging incidents in a democracy limit negotiation success for the terrorists. If terrorists moderate or replace one or more demands, the likelihood of negotiation success for the terrorists goes up.     

Civic duty and turnout in the UK referendum on AV: What shapes the duty to vote?

This paper examines the question of what shapes a voter's sense of duty to vote. We begin with a standard model of turnout at the 2011 British electoral system referendum. We show that the respondent's assessment of whether it is a citizen's duty to vote on referendums adds substantial explanatory power to a basic model of turnout. From here we move to examine what drives that sense of duty. We find that assessments of duty are structured by evaluations of politics and politicians. Low interest in politics, low political efficacy, and low regard for politicians correspond with less support for the idea that citizens have a duty to vote on referendums and at other elections. These findings have implications for accounts of turnout decline that stress the effects of a public that is exposed to negative portraits of politics and politicians.     

Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to devise a methodology for estimating the impact of transnational terrorism on tourism. Using monthly data from 1970–1988, we estimate the relationship between terrorism and tourism for Spain. We find that terrorist events have had a significant negative impact on the number of tourists visiting Spain. A typical incident is estimated as scaring away just over 140,000 tourists when all monthly impacts are combined. Moreover, the causality is unidirectional: terrorism affects tourism, but not the reverse.     

The Local News Story: Is Quality a Choice?

The conventional wisdom about local TV news is that quality journalism does not sell and that only by focusing on crime, disasters, and other “soft news” can newscasts get good ratings. Political scientists have decried the poor quality of TV news as a betrayal of the press's mandate to inform citizens of the important policy issues of the day so that they can hold government officials accountable. This study tests the proposition that audiences prefer low effort, tabloid journalism by looking at external measures of commercial success—the Nielsen ratings data. Utilizing data from a 5‐year study matching the content quality of 33,911 local news stories from 154 TV stations in 50 TV markets nationwide to corresponding ratings success, we show that solid reporting and a focus on significant issues actually produce better ratings than slapdash or superficial tabloid journalism. Additionally, we find that strategy-oriented coverage of political campaigns that focuses on the horserace does not build an audience. These surprising results have practical implications for democratic practice and local TV news production.     

Economic development and democracy revisited: Why dependency theory is not yet dead

It is generally accepted that there is a relationship between economic development and democracy which can be demonstrated by quantitative empirical evidence. The difficulties of validating the empirical claims derive not so much from the measures of economic development as from the measures of democracy itself. Our inquiry deepens the investigation of the relationship by 'unpacking' the dependent variable into separate measures of eight core values of liberal democratic government for 40 countries over the period 1970-1998. Our model assumes that the quality of liberal democratic government is not one-dimensional but can be measured across this range of values, so creating 'performance profiles' and demonstrating the likely trade-offs across distinct democratic values. The results of the analysis confirm that economic development has positive effects on democratic performance, but these effects vary across diverse aspects of performance and also across regions.