Collective versus unilateral responses to terrorism

Global terrorism presents collective action issues for targeted nations. Proactive measures (e.g., preemptive strikes) against terrorists create external benefits for all at-risk nations. In contrast, defensive actions deflect attacks to softer targets, thereby giving rise to external benefits to protected foreign residents and external costs to venues abroad. Coordinated antiterrorism measures are particularly difficult to achieve when many nations must participate and nonparticipants can undo the efforts of others. Thus, freezing terrorists’ assets or abiding by a no-negotiation pledge pose difficult collective action problems. These same concerns do not plague decisive action against domestic terrorism.     

Patterns of Transnational Terrorism, 1970–1999: Alternative Time-Series Estimates

Using alternative time-series methods, this paper investigates the patterns of transnational terrorist incidents that involve one or more deaths. Initially, an updated analysis of these fatal events for 1970–1999 is presented using a standard linear model with prespecified interventions that represent significant policy and political impacts. Next, a (regime-switching) threshold autoregressive (TAR) model is applied to this fatality time series. TAR estimates indicate that increases above the mean are not sustainable during high-activity eras, but are sustainable during low-activity eras. The TAR model provides a better fit than previously tried methods for the fatality time series. By applying a Fourier approximation to the nonlinear estimates, we get improved results. The findings in this study and those in our earlier studies are then applied to suggest some policy implications in light of the tragic attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001.     

Harmonization of Environmental Regulations When Firms are Judgment Proof

In an environmental setting, we examine different forms of harmonization based on either strict liability or negligence assuming the firm is judgment proof. When there is competition in standard setting then negligence dominates strict liability if there is upward pressure on standards. This upward pressure on standards arises as jurisdictions attempt to raise negligence standards. The desire to raise standards is affected by the degree of judgment proofness.     

Linking early ADHD to adolescent and early adult outcomes among African Americans

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to propose a mediational model for the mechanisms through which a diagnosis of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder between the ages of 10 and 12 predicts positive and negative early adult outcomes for African Americans.

Methods

The study sample (n = 211) was drawn from the Des Moines, Iowa subsample of the Family and Community Health Study. Participants were first assessed between the ages of 10 and 12, again between the ages of 12 and 18, and finally at 18 to 23.

Results

Findings indicate that a diagnosis of ADHD before age 13 indirectly predicted subsequent exclusionary school discipline and juvenile arrest in adolescence, and both arrests and educational attainment in young adulthood.

Conclusions

These findings offer support for the School to Prison Pipeline model, showing that for some African American children, a childhood diagnosis of ADHD can lead to negative school experiences that result in harsh school-based discipline, which in turn open the door to justice system involvement spanning several developmental stages.     

Protective Factors Against the Impact of School Bullying Perpetration and Victimization on Young Adult Externalizing and Internalizing Problems

School-based bullying perpetration and victimization is common worldwide and has profound impacts on student behavior and mental health. However, few studies have examined young adult outcomes of bullying perpetration or victimization. Research on factors that protect students who have bullied or been bullied is also lacking. This study examined young adult externalizing and internalizing problems (age 18–19 years) and adolescent protective factors related to self-reported bullying perpetration and victimization among over 650 Victorians ages 16–17 years. Opportunities for prosocial involvement in the family lessened subsequent involvement in nonviolent antisocial behavior, as an outcome of prior bullying. High academic performance and having strategies to cope with stress reduced young adult depressive symptoms for participants who had been victims of bullying. The implications for bullying prevention and early intervention programs are discussed.     

An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end

This paper implements discrete-time survival models to ascertain the determinants behind specific endings for terrorist groups during 1970–2007. Based on multinomial logit regressions, we estimate the hazard probabilities associated with three endings for terrorist groups: splintering from internal factors, being defeated by force, and joining the political process or achieving victory. We find that different covariates differentially impact each of these endings. In a second exercise, we split our sample of 586 terrorist groups into those that started before and after the beginning of 1990. In so doing, we find that survival factors differ between the two cohorts of groups. For both exercises, the determinants of survival comprise terrorist groups’ goals, their tactics and size, and base-country characteristics. Robustness tests conclude the paper.     

Authoritarian attitudes and support for radical right populists

ABSTRACT

This paper examines which parties attract support from people with authoritarian attitudes by comparing multi-party systems to a pure two-party system (the US). It proposes reasons why radical right populist (RRP) parties may serve as outlets for illiberal sentiments in multiparty systems, and offers reasons why such attitudes could correspond with support for the US Republican Party. Some have raised concerns about democratic deconsolidation in liberal democracies. There is limited evidence here consistent with deconsolidation. Politically authoritarian attitudes do exist among a small but non-trivial proportion of electorates in established democracies. In multiparty systems people with such attitudes were more likely to be supporters of smaller RRP parties that generally do not join government, but not centre-left or centre-right parties. However, US Republicans had supporters who resembled European RRP supporters in their politically authoritarian attitudes, and authoritarian attitudes were a notable predictor of support for Donald Trump in 2016.     

Terrorist group survival: ideology, tactics, and base of operations

The paper applies survival analysis to identify the determinants of terrorist group duration. Our sample includes 367 terrorist organizations that operated during 1970?C2007. Consistent with the theory, determinants of these groups?? survival include their tactics, sizes, ideological basis, regions of operation, and base-country characteristics. Cross-sectional and panel estimates are reported. Terrorist organizations fare better if they are larger in size, diversify their attack modes, are animated by religiosity rather than secular political goals, and base their operations in the Middle East or Africa. Groups?? longevity is bolstered by democratic institutions and an intermediate level of ethnic fractionalization at home.     

Who adopts MIND/FIND in INTERPOL��s fight against international crime and terrorism?

This article determines the key factors inducing INTERPOL countries to institute MIND/FIND, a technology which facilitates systematic searches of people, motor vehicles, and documents at international transit points. This integrated solution assists countries in curbing international crime and terrorism. Based on discrete-choice models, the analysis identifies income per capita, population, democratic freedoms, and anticipated searches for suspects as the key determinants of whether INTERPOL countries install MIND/FIND. Ethnic diversity, international arrivals, cost proxies, and arrests prior to adoption are not important considerations in decisions to install MIND/FIND. External financial support is an essential factor identifying likely non-adopters who installed MIND/FIND.