Application of Random Match Probability Calculations to Mixed STR Profiles

Mixed DNA profiles are being encountered more frequently as laboratories analyze increasing amounts of touch evidence. If it is determined that an individual could be a possible contributor to the mixture, it is necessary to perform a statistical analysis to allow an assignment of weight to the evidence. Currently, the combined probability of inclusion (CPI) and the likelihood ratio (LR) are the most commonly used methods to perform the statistical analysis. A third method, random match probability (RMP), is available. This article compares the advantages and disadvantages of the CPI and LR methods to the RMP method. We demonstrate that although the LR method is still considered the most powerful of the binary methods, the RMP and LR methods make similar use of the observed data such as peak height, assumed number of contributors, and known contributors where the CPI calculation tends to waste information and be less informative.     

Developmental and offence-related characteristics of different types of adolescent sex offender: A community sample

Abstract

Offence-related and developmental characteristics were compared in subgroups of a sample (n=184) of male sex offenders aged between 10 and 21 [mean=16.07; standard deviation (SD)=2.09] referred to a specialist community facility. Important differences were observed on key developmental and offence-related variables between adolescents who targeted peers/adults and those who targeted children. These differences support the validity of the distinction between these two groups. Much smaller subgroups with mixed (i.e. peer and child) victims, internet child pornography and indecent exposure offences are also described. The sample was followed-up for a mean period of 4 years 6 months (SD=30.5 months), during which a small number re-offended sexually (n=13) and many more re-offended non-sexually (n=90). Relationships between engagement with treatment and some background and offence-related variables were identified and these are discussed.     

The Displaying of Yard Signs as a Form of Political Participation

Despite the ubiquity of yard signs, little is known about how and why individuals display them. Using two original studies of the 2008 presidential race, along with American National Election Study data, we address three points pertaining to this understudied form of political participation. First, what are the correlates of the individuals and households that display signs? Second, what motivates such displays, and to what extent do those motives reflect expressive and communicative desires? Finally, how do individuals obtain signs, and do individuals—rather than parties or candidates—play a role in spreading signs throughout neighborhoods? Our findings suggest that the dissemination of yard signs is not merely a top–down process driven by campaign professionals, but a genuine participatory act that is fueled by individual initiative and social networking.     

Rivalry and superior dispatch: an?analysis of competing courts in medieval and early modern England

In most areas, economists look to competition to align incentives, but not so with courts. Many believe that competition enables plaintiff forum shopping, but Adam Smith praised rivalry among courts. This article describes the courts when the common law developed. In many areas of law, courts were monopolized and imposed decisions on unwilling participants. In other areas, however, large degrees of competition and consent were present. In many areas, local, hundred, manorial, county, ecclesiastical, law merchant, chancery, and common law courts competed for customers. When parties had a choice, courts needed to provide a forum that was ex ante value maximizing.     

A Capacity for Central Coordination: The Case of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

For the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (PM&C) the year 1987 can now be seen as pivotal in marking a clear end to a period of transition in coordinating structures in the Australian Public Service (APS) that had lasted roughly 20 years. The abolition in 1987 of the Public Service Board, formerly a powerful coordinating agency, is the most obvious marker of the change. The PSB's departure left the Secretary of PM&C with a role that is now often described as ‘head of the public service’. More broadly, the 1987 changes to the machinery of government both formalised and enabled a sea‐change in PM&C's role. Before 1987 a large policy initiation and development project would usually have been considered as beyond PM&C's scope. Since then, extensive and direct policy development work by PM&C has become common. The continuing debates have been over whether PM&C actually delivers in these roles (an empirical question) and how far it should play them (a normative issue). In this article we itemise the capacity, both continuing and developing, which PM&C has to support policy development. Traditional coordination mechanisms are an important part of this armoury and PM&C has long experience of most of them. However policy initiation and development calls for other tools which PM&C has had to develop over the past few decades. There is scope for conflict between the coordination and initiation/development roles. Understanding how a central agency like PM&C carries out each of them and balances the two can potentially contribute to debates on organisational design. We also address the normative issue: whether the growth of prime ministerial impact is a result of an increase in public service support or a cause of its increase ( Walter and Strangio 2007 ) and whether it should be restrained. We accept that the new developments give prime ministers the capacity to oversee policy arenas where once they could not, but regard this as a consequence as much of demand from above as of ambition within the department.