If I recall correctly. An event history analysis of forgetting and recollecting past voting behavior

The mechanisms behind vote recall inaccuracy are not well understood. The literature has been unable to separate inaccuracy due to the nature of the voter (such as non-attitudes) from inaccuracy due to interfering events after casting the vote (such as a change in vote intention). This paper employs event history analysis to disentangle time-invariant and time-variant explanations of recall inaccuracy. Using Dutch panel data on 20,936 respondents in 42 waves between 2010 and 2012 (and additional data collected between 2006 and 2010), we explain the likelihood of misreporting the 2010 vote during the subsequent electoral cycle. The analyses show that although both explanations play a role, voters’ general level of volatility before casting the recalled vote matters less than changes in vote intention after the vote. We conclude that accurate recall is affected mainly by events rather than the nature of voters. Our findings imply that survey measures of voting behavior could be improved by offering cues on the elections of interest.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed in this issue. Daniela Campello, The Politics of Market Discipline in Latin America: Globalization and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015. Figures, tables, notes, bibliography, index, 239 pp.; hardcover $78.42, paperback $29.99, Kindle $98.40. Eduardo Dargent, Technocracy and Democracy in Latin America: The Experts Running Government. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015. Tables, figures, bibliography, index. 216 pp.; hardcover $90, ebook $72. Ana Lorena De La O, Crafting Policies to End Poverty in Latin America: The Quiet Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015. Figures, tables, bibliography, index, 194 pp.; hardcover $84.99, ebook $68. Jorge Heine and Brigitte Weiffen, 21st Century Democracy Promotion in the Americas: Standing Up for the Polity. New York: Routledge, 2015. Abbreviations, tables, bibliography, index, 196 pp.; hardcover $130, paperback $47. Juan Pablo Luna, Segmented Representation: Political Party Strategies in Unequal Democracies. New York: Oxford University Press, 2014. Tables, maps, figures, bibliography, indexes, 374 pp.; hardcover $115, ebook. Stephen Offutt, New Centers of Global Evangelicalism in Latin America and Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015. Map, tables, abbreviations, appendixes, bibliography, index, 192 pp.; hardcover $90, ebook $72. Mariela Szwarcberg, Mobilizing Poor Voters: Machine Politics, Clientelism, and Social Networks in Argentina. New York: Cambridge University Press. 2015. Figures, tables, maps, notes, bibliography, index, 185 pp.; hardcover $89.99, paperback $32.99, ebook $26. Brian Wampler, Activating Democracy in Brazil: Popular Participation, Social Justice, and Interlocking Institutions. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 2015. Tables, figures, abbreviations, notes, bibliography, index, 312 pp.; paperback $39, pdf $39. Graham Denyer Willis, The Killing Consensus: Police, Organized Crime, and the Regulation of Life and Death in Urban Brazil. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2014. Tables, figures, notes, bibliography, index, 216 pp.; hardcover $70, paperback $29.95, ebook $29.95. Morris Morley and Chris McGillion, Reagan and Pinochet: The Struggle over U.S. Policy Toward Chile. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015. Abbreviations, acronyms, bibliography, index, 354 pp.; hardcover $95, paperback $34.99, ebook $28.     

Embutramide,a Component of Tanax®(T‐61) as a New Drug of Abuse?

Tanax^®(T‐61) is a euthanasia solution commonly used in veterinary medicine in Europe. It consists of three active components: embutramide, mebezonium iodide, and tetracaine hydrochloride. Human consumption of Tanax^®(T‐61) is usually associated with suicide attempts. In our 15‐year‐long practice, embutramide was detected only three times but within a short period. First, it was found in the urine of a 42‐year‐old veterinarian, and the other two observations were made in a 16‐year‐old young man. Urine samples were analyzed using Shimadzu Prominence TOX.I.S.II. HPLC–DAD system with online SPE extraction system. Both of the two patients denied any intention to die. These cases show that this veterinary drug may also be considered as potential drugs of abuse.     

The Effect of the Electoral Calendar on Politicians' Selection into Legislative Cohorts and Legislative Behavior in Argentina, 1983–2007

How do electoral opportunities affect politicians' career strategies? Do politicians behave strategically in response to the opportunities provided by the electoral calendar? We argue that in a legislature that combines nonstatic ambition with a staggered electoral calendar, different kinds of politicians will have dissimilar preferences towards running in concurrent or midterm elections. More specifically, politicians with no previous executive experience should strategically run in midterm legislative elections in order to increase their visibility among voters, while more experienced politicians should opt for concurrent elections. We support these claims with data from the Argentine Chamber of Deputies between 1983 and 2007.     

Willingness to Cooperate with the Police in Four Central European Countries

Social order and security depend on mutual cooperation between the police and the public. Since the majority of crime is not detected by the police itself, informal control is needed to ensure order in society. This article aims to describe the circumstances under which people´s willingness to cooperate with the police is enhanced. Recent studies show that public compliance and cooperation with authorities who carry out criminal proceedings are linked with the extent to which people perceive these authorities as trustworthy and legitimate. Importantly, trust in police procedural fairness leads to the perception that institutions of justice are legitimate, which in turn enhances people´s willingness to cooperate with them in order to fight crime and disorder. This normative perspective is supported in many European countries. However, evidence exists that instrumental judgements, which focus on one´s self-interest and on outcomes of the justice system, could also be important in some countries. Drawing on procedural justice theory, we examine the importance of normative and instrumental factors in eliciting people´s readiness to help the police fight crime in four Central European countries: the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, Hungary, and Poland. While the procedural justice pattern, i.e. the normative perspective, holds well in the Czech Republic and Hungary, in other analysed countries trust in police effectiveness or fear of crime, i.e. instrumental judgements, are relevant too.     

Self-report rates of physical and sexual violence among Spanish inmates by mental illness and gender

High rates of mental illnesses and victimization have been reported for prison populations. This study estimates physical and sexual victimization rates (inmate-on-inmate and staff-on-inmate) for people with and without mental illnesses residing in Spanish prisons. A random sample of 2484 male and 225 female inmates was drawn from eight prisons in Spain. Self-report data were collected on victimization, mental illness and sociodemographic characteristics. Prevalence rates of physical and sexual victimization during the past six months in prison among men with mental illnesses were higher than for men without reported mental illnesses (39.1% vs. 16.4% and 8.6% vs. 3.3%, respectively). Similar comparative results were found for women with and without mental illnesses (29.7% vs. 17.5% and 13.3% vs. 10.3%, respectively). A positive association was found between mental illnesses and victimization. This evidence suggests the need for integrated trauma treatment and proactive steps to protect incarcerated persons from violence during incarceration.     

Hanging in,stepping up and stepping out: livelihood aspirations and strategies of the poor

In recent years understanding of poverty and of ways in which people escape from or fall into poverty has become more holistic. This should improve the capabilities of policy analysts and others working to reduce poverty, but it also makes analysis more complex. This article describes a simple schema which integrates multi-dimensional, multi-level, and dynamic understandings of poverty, of poor people's livelihoods, and of changing roles of agricultural systems. The article suggests three broad types of strategy pursued by poor people: ‘hanging in’, ‘stepping up’, and ‘stepping out’. This simple schema explicitly recognises the dynamic aspirations of poor people, diversity among them, and livelihood diversification. It also brings together aspirations of poor people with wider sectoral, inter-sectoral, and macro-economic questions about policies necessary for the realisation of those aspirations.     

The emergence of a fourth pillar in development aid

Development co-operation has traditionally been the playing field of governments, multilateral institutions, and established development NGOs. In the past decade, however, other actors in Northern countries (such as businesses, migrants' organisations, professional groups, and schools) have shown active interest in development-related activities. Although they do not belong to the epistemic community of development specialists and are often overlooked in the discourse and literature on development co-operation, their number and importance are growing. These novel approaches to development co-operation give rise to some important reflections about their methodologies, potential impact, and fundraising. Based on the authors' experiences and research in Belgium, the article raises some issues about what they term the fourth pillar of development co-operation, with the aim of stimulating the academic and policy-oriented debate.     

Robert Manne's Wilfred Burchett: The Uses and Abuses of Biography

Robert Manne numbers amongst Australia's most influential public intellectuals. Though his politics have moved leftwards, Manne remains critical of the left's so‐called neo‐Stalinist interpretation of Cold War history. Of particular concern is the left's defence of the radical Australian journalist, Wilfred Burchett, who was widely regarded as a communist propagandist and traitor. Manne's 1985 Quadrant essay, “The Fortunes of Wilfred Burchett: A New Assessment”, lent considerable academic weight to this view. Though Manne has since acknowledged some errors, he still maintains that Burchett was a communist “hack” and traitor. But Manne's argument remains selectively based and erroneous. It uncritically accepts security‐based intelligence, while sidestepping the abuse of Burchett's civil liberties by Liberal governments. Manne uses and abuses Burchett's life to push his ideological agenda about Stalinism's evils.     

The experience of the Forensic Anthropology Service of the Medical Examiner's Office in Porto Alegre, Brazil

The Forensic Anthropology Service of the Medical Examiner's Office of Porto Alegre was created in September 1997 to examine human skeletons, establish identification and identify lesions that may explain death. From September 1997 to December 2006, 344 skeletons were examined (mean: 37 examinations/year), and 322 were human remains. Most skeletal remains belonged to men (61%) whose age was estimated at 21-50 years (61%). The most frequent bone lesions were caused by fractures (71%), firearm projectiles (11%) and the effects of weather (10%). Antemortem bone changes due to consolidated fractures, degenerative bone processes, congenital bone diseases, and medical procedures were found in 38 skeletal remains (14%). Identification was possible in 83 cases (26%); of these, 78% were identified by DNA analysis, 16% by dental examination, and 6% by anatomic changes associated with healed fractures.