Forecasting presidential elections: A comparison of naive models

Our primary aim is to forecast, rather than explain, presidential election results, using aggregate time series data from the post-World War II period. More particularly, we seek prediction of the presidential winner well before the election actually occurs. After comparing the performance of several naive blvariate models based on economic performance, international involvement, political experience, and presidential popularity, we go on to formulate a multivariate model. This economy-popularity regression model rather accurately forecasts the winner 6 months in advance of the election, by employing spring measures of presidential popularity and the growth rate in real GNP per capita. Furthermore, the model's performance, both ex post facto and prior to the election, compares favorably with the Gallup final preelection poll taken only a few days before the election.     

... And justice for all

African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, and European American students rated their procedural preferences in response to a hypothetical conflict scenario and then recalled a real dispute in which they had been involved. Subjects of all four ethnicities and of both genders preferred persuasion and negotiation to other options. There were significant, ethnic and gender differences in preferences, as well as differences for the nature of the relationship and the nature of the issue, but these differences were small in comparison to the overall pattern of procedural preferences. Reports of actual procedure use also showed differences in procedure use across genders, ethnicities, and relationship type, but the differences were relatively small. Procedural fairness was the strongest predictor of both procedural preference and affect toward actual procedure use.     

Living in the Past? Change and Continuity in the Norwegian Central Civil Service

In this article, the authors describe the changes that have taken place in the Norwegian civil service over the past 30 years, focusing on demographic changes in education and gender and on changes in civil servants' tasks, attitudes, and contact patterns. The changes are analyzed using tenure, structural, and demographic perspectives. The unique empirical database is provided by surveys conducted every 10 years of civil servants in the ministries since 1976. The main empirical findings are that there has been a combination of robustness and change. The findings show little support for the generational version of a tenure perspective, meaning that civil servants are not living in the past. The structural perspective, illustrated by the importance of formal position, best explains the variations in civil servants' contact patterns and attitudes, followed by the career version of a tenure perspective. Demography, as represented by different educational backgrounds and gender, also has an effect.     

Legitimacy and Deterrence Effects in Counterterrorism Policing: A Study of Muslim Americans

This study considers the circumstances under which members of the Muslim American community voluntarily cooperate with police efforts to combat terrorism. Cooperation is defined to include both a general receptivity toward helping the police in antiterror work and the specific willingness to alert police to terror‐related risks in a community. We compare two perspectives on why people cooperate with law enforcement, both developed with reference to general policing, in the context of antiterror policing and specifically among members of the Muslim American community. The first is instrumental. It suggests that people cooperate because they see tangible benefits that outweigh any costs. The second perspective is normative. It posits that people respond to their belief that police are a legitimate authority. On this view we link legitimacy to the fairness and procedural justice of police behavior. Data from a study involving interviews with Muslim Americans in New York City between March and June 2009 strongly support the normative model by finding that the procedural justice of police activities is the primary factor shaping legitimacy and cooperation with the police.     

Goodbye to Revolution: The Portuguese Election of July 1987

State, Economy and Society in Western Europe 1815–1975: A Data Handbook in Two Volumes. By Peter Flora et al. Frankfurt/London/Chicago: Campus Verlag; Macmillan Press and St James Press, 1983. Volume I, Pp.633. £40.00.

Moderates and Conservatives in Western Europe: Political Parties, the European Community, and the Atlantic Alliance. Edited by Roger Morgan and Stefano Silvestri. Policy Studies Institute. London: Heinemann Educational Books, 1982. Pp.266. £14.50.

Conservative Politics in Western Europe. Edited by Zig Layton‐Henry. London: Macmillan, 1982. Pp.346. £25.00.

The Mediterranean Basin: Its Political Economy and Changing International Relations. by Glenda G. Rosenthal. London: Butterworth, 1982. Pp. 140. £18.00.

Political Forces in Spain, Greece, and Portugal. By Beate Kohler. London: Butterworth, 1982. Pp.270. £27.50.

The Impact of Parties: Politics and Policies in Democratic Capitalist States. Edited by Francis G. Castles. London: Sage Publications, 1982. Pp.370. £17.95.

National Separatism. Edited by Colin H. Williams. Cardiff: University of Wales Press, 1982. Pp.317. £9.95.

The Successor Generation: International Perspectives of Postwar Europeans. Edited by Stephen F. Szabo. London: Butterworths, 1983. £20.00.

The Political System of the Federal Republic of Germany. By Klaus von Beyme. Aldershot: Gower, 1983. Pp.xiii + 224. £15.00.

Les nouvelles idéologies. By P. Bacot, C. Journés et AL. Lyons: Presses Universi‐taires, 1982. Pp.228. Ff.49.

Policy and Politics in France: Living with Uncertainty. By Douglas E. Ashford. Philadelphia: Temple, 1982. Pp.xx + 345. $29.95 (hardback), $12.95 (paper).

French Planning in Theory and Practice. By Saul Estrin and Peter Holmes. London: George Allen and Unwin, 1983. Pp.viii + 215. £15.00 (hardback).

The Corsican Time Bomb. By Robert Ramsay. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1983. Pp.xii + 245. £21.00 (hardback).

Britain Against Itself: The Political Contradictions of Collectivism. By Samuel H. Beer. London: Faber &; Faber, 1982. Pp.xvi + 231. £9.50.

Modern British Politics: Parties and Pressure Groups in the Collectivist Age. By Samuel H. Beer. London: Faber &; Faber, 3rd edition, 1982. Pp.xiv + 434. £4.95.

Crosses on the Ballot: Patterns of British Voter Alignment Since 1885. By Kenneth D. Wald. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1983. Pp.xvi + 263. £21.60.

Nation, Class and Creed in Northern Ireland. By Edward Moxon‐Browne. Alder‐shot: Gower, 1983. Pp.xv + 205. £14.50 (hardback).

Socialism with a Human Face. By Michael Meacher. London: Allen &; Unwin, 1982. Pp.295. £15.00.

Italian Fascism: Its Origins and Development. By Alexander De Grand. Lincoln and London: University of Nebraska Press, 1982. Pp. 174. £14.10 (hardback), £6.80 (paperback).

Zwischen Koalition und Konkurrenz. Österreichs Parteien seit 1945. Edited by Peter Gerlich and Wolfgang C. Müller. Vienna: Braumüller, 1983. Pp. 378. DM36.