Sexual murderers' implicit theories

Interviews with 28 sexual murderers were subjected to grounded theory analysis. Five implicit theories (ITs) were identified: dangerous world, male sex drive is uncontrollable, entitlement, women as sexual objects, and women as unknowable. These ITs were found to be identical to those identified in the literature as being present in rapists. The presence of dangerous world and male sex drive is uncontrollable were present, or absent, such that three groups could be identified: (a) dangerous world plus male sex drive is uncontrollable; (b) dangerous world, in the absence of male sex drive is uncontrollable; (c) male sex drive is uncontrollable in the absence of dangerous world. These three groups were found to differ in motivation: (a) were motivated by urges to rape and murder; (b) were motivated by grievance, resentment and/or anger toward women; (c) were motivated to sexually offend but were prepared to kill to avoid detection, or secure compliance.     

How Smart Is my Dummy? Time Series Tests for the Influence of Politics

Kevin Grier Department of Economics, 335 Hester Hall, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019 e-mail: angus{at}ou.edu Of necessity, many tests for political influence on policiesor outcomes involve the use of dummy variables. However, itis often the case that the hypothesis against which the politicaldummies are tested is the null hypothesis that the interceptis otherwise constant throughout the sample. This simple nullcan cause inference problems if there are (nonpolitical) interceptshifts in the data and the political dummies are correlatedwith these unmodeled shifts. Here we present a method for morerigorously testing the significance of political dummy variablesin single equation models estimated with time series data. Ourmethod is based on recent work on detecting multiple regimeshifts by Bai and Perron. The article illustrates the potentialproblem caused by an overly simple null hypothesis, expositsthe Bai and Perron model, gives a proposed methodology for testingthe significance of political dummy variables, and illustratesthe method with two examples.

Before the curse of statisticsfell upon mankind we lived a happy, innocent life —HilaireBelloc, On Statistics

     

THE IMAGE OF THE PUBLIC ADMINISTRATOR IN AUSTRALIA*

After the recent Federal elections, I am more confident in saying that I do not always believe the polls. In this instance, I have the feeling that the image of public administrators in Australia is probably worse than the surveys indicated. The latest bumper bar sticker in Canberra reads: “Fight inflation, run over a public servant today”. The Australian is running a series of articles critical of the size, efficiency and effectiveness of public services. The cup-of-tea image is a popular one and kick-a-public-servant-today has every possibility of developing into a national sport; the “fat cat” image has caught on.     

Beyond Engagement and Participation: User and Community Coproduction of Public Services

In recent years, there has been a radical reinterpretation of the role of policy making and service delivery in the public domain. Policy making is no longer seen as a purely top-down process but rather as a negotiation among many interacting policy systems. Similarly, services are no longer simply delivered by professional and managerial staff in public agencies but are coproduced by users and their communities. This article presents a conceptual framework for understanding the emerging role of user and community coproduction and presents several case studies that illustrate how different forms of coproduction have played out in practice. Traditional conceptions of service planning and management are now outdated and need to be revised to account for coproduction as an integrating mechanism and an incentive for resource mobilization—a potential that is still greatly underestimated. However, coproduction in the context of multipurpose, multistakeholder networks raises important public governance issues that have implications for public services reform.     

Youth employment and post-war development in Jaffna,northern Sri Lanka

Jaffna District in northern Sri Lanka has recently emerged from three decades of violence and isolation, leading to a diverse array of political, social and economic issues. This article critically analyses the links between youth employment and the post-war reconstruction and development of this region. Unemployment among youth is regarded as a potential threat to the stability of the country during the post-war period, and it is argued that only through the active engagement of Sri Lanka’s youth population can the threat of a resurgence in violence be fully eliminated. The article, which is based on recent field research, examines the extent of youth unemployment within Jaffna District, and considers how government, non-government and community-based actors are working together to solve related problems.     

Dynamic risk factors: scientific kinds or predictive constructs

ABSTRACT

There are a number of theoretical problems evident in the concept of dynamic risk factors that arise from their (increasing) importation into the explanatory and treatment domains of forensic and correctional practice. More specifically: (a) the concept of dynamic risk factors has not been well defined; (b) relatedly, there is a lack of clarity whether dynamic risk factors refer to causal processes or are predictive constructs; and finally (c) because of the above problems no one is sure how best to integrate them into clinical assessment and treatment. I will examine each of these three conceptual problems in this paper and make some suggestions about how to utilise dynamic risk factors in explanations of offending.