South Africa and Japan: Between domestic reform and global reach

Beset by shifting public opinion and a rising chorus of calls for early withdrawal, the US president has outlined a plan for successfully completing his administration's project in Iraq. But victory means something very different for the US than it does for Iraqis themselves, and defining the agenda on Washington's terms risks prospects for lasting stability.     

Jan Smuts house news

Hungary, a Central European success story, is taking a closer look at its African ties following its accession to the European Union and has a range of useful experience and skills to offer African countries. The article asks whether it might provide a model for other new EU members’ engagement with the continent.     

Subjectivity and bias in forensic DNA mixture interpretation

The objectivity of forensic science decision making has received increased attention and scrutiny. However, there are only a few published studies experimentally addressing the potential for contextual bias. Because of the esteem of DNA evidence, it is important to study and assess the impact of subjectivity and bias on DNA mixture interpretation. The study reported here presents empirical data suggesting that DNA mixture interpretation is subjective. When 17 North American expert DNA examiners were asked for their interpretation of data from an adjudicated criminal case in that jurisdiction, they produced inconsistent interpretations. Furthermore, the majority of 'context free' experts disagreed with the laboratory's pre-trial conclusions, suggesting that the extraneous context of the criminal case may have influenced the interpretation of the DNA evidence, thereby showing a biasing effect of contextual information in DNA mixture interpretation.     

Machiavelli’s Science of Statecraft: The Diplomacy and Politics of Disorder

This paper calls into question the extent to which ethical dualism, broadly conceived as raison d’ état, does justice to Machiavelli’s understanding and practice of the diplomatic arts. Arguments are advanced herein that Machiavelli did not so much abandon morality as he sought, through the examples of Rome and antiquity, to find a different remedy for the disorder and violence rampant in the Italy of his day. Machiavelli’s reports in the diplomatic service of Florence illustrate qualities and skills of the diplomat often at odds with the caricature of the immoral statesman.     

A Tory High Modernism? Grand Plans and Visions of Order in Neoconservative Ontario

Trends toward mass incarceration in the United States and elsewhere raise compelling questions about the social purposes of prisons, and their role in the consolidation (and/or privatization) of the neoconservative state. This article examines two moments of penal reform that were historically distinct, but remarkably similar in their shape and intent. Mike Harris’s Progressive Conservatives won control of Ontario’s provincial government in 1995, and undertook a wide-ranging program of institutional and social restructuring that was intended to transform Canada’s industrial heartland. Penal reform was central to this agenda, but Conservative efforts here were remarkably similar to those 160 years before, when Canada built its first penitentiary. This article compares these two moments of flux using a theoretical framework developed by James Scott. He argues that the grand plans of ‘high modernist’ reformers, while seeking to make society more ‘legible’ and ‘rational’, tend to employ simplifications—especially visually pleasing ones—which obscure and suppress insights that might be gained from the ‘practical knowledge’ of those closer to the ground. They do this at their peril, for grand plans tend to fail for lack of such knowledge. The article argues that Ontario’s experience fits neatly into these categories, except that the aim of reformers here has been to restore an old social order, rather than to build a new one.     

Preventing suicide in prisons, part I. Recommendations from the International Association for Suicide Prevention Task Force on Suicide in Prisons

In 2000 the Department of Mental Health of the World Health Organization (WHO) published a guide named Preventing Suicide. A Resource for Prison Officers as part of the WHO worldwide initiative for the prevention of suicide. In 2007 there are new epidemiological data on prison suicide, a more detailed discussion of risk factors accounting for the generally higher rate of suicide in correctional settings in comparison to the general population, and several strategies for developing screening instruments. As a first step, this paper presents an update of the WHO guide by the Task Force on Suicide in Prisons, created by the International Association for Suicide Prevention. A second paper, by the same Task Force, will present some international comparisons of suicide prevention services in correctional facilities.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices,and Monetary Policy in South Africa

Abstract

Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This article examines exchange rate pass-through to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980–2009. Short-horizon pass-through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems (Johansen) models, controlling for both domestic and foreign costs. Average pass-through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months, and in the long-run, from the Johansen analysis including feedback effects, is about 55 per cent. There is evidence of slower pass-through under inflation targeting; pass-through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry, with greater pass-through occurring for small appreciations.