Sustained Outcomes? an Exploratory Study of Juvenile Drug Courts and Long-Term Recidivism

This exploratory study examined juvenile drug courts’ effect on adulthood recidivism. Utilizing a twelve-year average follow up time, adult recidivism rates were compared between previous juvenile drug court participants and a comparison group of juveniles who participated in traditional probation. Linear regression models indicated limited recidivism effects of drug court on arrests or convictions into adulthood. The findings suggest that gender and race may play a role in how justice-involved juveniles interact and experience juvenile drug court, highlighting the need for gender-responsive and culturally responsive policies, practices, and programs within juvenile drug courts. Recommendations are made regarding future research areas and ways to potentially improve long-term juvenile drug court outcomes.     

“Promoter” as an agency in decline of “market orientation” across small scale enterprises in Andhra Pradesh: Study on three selected districts

The study emphasizes the exploration of the influences that “promoter” of the small‐scale unit exerts in shaping the loss of market orientation in regional perspective. The small‐scale firm‐based “inefficiencies” have been measured with aid of the factors “promoter's entrepreneurial orientation,” “faulty resource based planning,” “inefficient managerial control,” and “improper capacity utilization.” The factors were shortlisted after extensive review of the existing literature, theoretical frameworks, and the conceptual notes with regard to the phenomenon of the market orientation decline or industrial sickness across the small‐scale units. The study across promoters of 300 sick industrial units observed the incidence of the sizable and quantifiable impact of the promoter in shaping the prospects for small‐scale unit‐based survival.     

Exchange rate policy modeling and forecasting the exchange rate: Indian rupee vis‐à‐vis the U.S. dollar

The exchange rate is a very important key financial variable that affects decisions made by the foreign exchange investors, exporters, importers, bankers, businesses, financial institutions, policymakers, and tourists in the developed as well as the developing world. Exchange rate fluctuations affect the value of international investment portfolios, competitiveness of exports and imports, value of international reserves, currency value of debt payments, and the cost of tourists. Movements in exchange rates thus have very important implications for any country's economy's business cycle, trade, and capital flows and are therefore crucial for understanding financial developments and changes in economic policy. The study will be looking at the various aspects of country's economic policy with respect to the exchange rate and modeling and forecasting the exchange rate. The study will be analyzing India's exchange rate story and will be discussing the structure of the foreign exchange market in India in terms of participants, instruments, and trading platform as also a turnover in the Indian foreign exchange market and forward premia. The study will be attempting to develop a model for the rupee–dollar exchange rate taking into account variables from monetary and microstructure models as well as other variables including intervention by the central bank. The main focus will be on the exchange rate of the Indian rupee vis‐à‐vis the U.S. dollar, that is, the Re/$ rate. The data will be covering from January 1990 through April 2013. This study will be examining the forecasting performance of the monetary model and various extensions of it in the vector autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive framework.     

从反核威慑战略到最低核威慑战略:中国核战略演进之路

当前学者们对中国核战略的争论焦点在于,没有任何一种现有核战略定义能够完全涵盖中国核政策的特点。本文认为,正确理解中国核战略,需要摆脱现有核战略理论概念体系的束缚。只有从中国核战略产生和发展的具体时代背景中寻找线索,才能认识到,中国核战略经历了从反核威慑战略到最低核威慑战略的巨大转变,而中国长期大规模备战核战争遗留下来的物质遗产和思想基础,仍然对中国核战略产生着巨大的影响力。中国学者应从中国核战略实践出发,参与构建主流话语体系,为核战略学科建设做出自己的贡献。     

全球减排路线图的正义性——对胡鞍钢教授的全球减排路线图的评价与修正

任何全球减排路线图的绘制都无法脱离国际正义而具有生命力。气候变化问题的特性要求全球减排路线图尊重具有两面性的国际气候正义:环境正义和发展正义,需要考虑国家间公平、人的公平和代际公平。仅以人类发展指数(HDI)作为衡量国家承担减排责任的标准缺乏足够的正义,至少还需要加入人均历史累积排放和气候变化脆弱性两个指标。三者分别体现气候变化正义性中的人的平等发展权、减排责任分担和对受害者在排放权上的补偿。综合三大指标后的四分组分类,才是更体现正义性、更容易被接受和执行的路线图。从正义性出发,中国应承担相应的减排责任,并努力推动全球减排进程,但也要注意维护自身的发展权益。中国在全球减排中的作为,应是在国际正义与国家发展战略间取得平衡。     

Who Should Be at the Top of Bottom-Up Development? A Case-Study of the National Rural Livelihoods Mission in Rajasthan,India

It is widely acknowledged that top-down support is essential for bottom-up participatory projects to be effectively implemented at scale. However, which level of government, national or sub-national, should be given the responsibility to implement such projects is an open question, with wide variations in practice. This paper analyses qualitative and quantitative data from a natural experiment of a large participatory project in the state of Rajasthan in India comparing central management and state-level management. We find that locally managed facilitators formed groups that were more likely to engage in collective action and be politically active, with higher savings and greater access to subsidised loans.     

20世纪末以来中、美与东盟的三边互动关系——以权力转移为视角

中国的崛起对美国和东盟均产生重大影响,导致中、美和东盟在经贸、政治和认知方面形成了互动关系。由于经济领域的区域经济一体化、贸易转移效应和政治领域东亚一体化的排斥效应等因素,中美在东亚的权力关系发生了转移,东亚秩序经历了结构性调整。三方在经贸、政治和认知的互动相互影响并呈正相关关系,使得东亚的权力转移在和平中实现。互动中仍存在一些问题需要三方调适和合作加以解决。     

律师与法官关系的重构

律师与法官是一个国家司法的中坚力量,如何构建我国律师与法官的关系,是一个常说常新的话题。笔者在实证调查的基础上,提出了律师与法官关系的重构措施:认为应当加强律师与法官的自律;实现律师与法官的关系合理"隔离";建立律师和法官之间的沟通与互动机制;完善律师与法官的监督与制约程序;构建法律职业共同体。