Electoral behaviour in a two-vote system: Incentives for ticket splitting in German Bundestag elections

Abstract. The ballot structure of German Bundestag elections allows two votes: one for a constituency candidate and the second for a party list. About one-fifth of the voters usually split their ticket. Several hypotheses are derived about incentives for ticket splitting and tested with survey data from a 1998 pre-election poll. We argue that an explanation of split tickets in the German system has to take into account both party rankings and coalition preferences. One of the most important incentives is a preference or top ranking of a minor party like the FDP or Greens, if it is combined with a preference for a coalition with either the CDU/CSU or SPD. Contrary to this finding, the hypothesis of threshold insurance voting of CDU/CSU or SPD supporters choosing the party list of their prospective minor coalition partner is rejected for the 1998 election.     

Sexualization and lifestyle impulsivity: clinically valid discriminators in sexual offenders

Following clinical observations in this study a comparison was undertaken between nonsexualized rapists, sexualized rapists, and pedophilic child molesters in terms of psychometric measures, criminological data, and DSM-IV diagnoses following the authors' hypotheses that nonsexualized and sexualized rapists differ in respect of psychiatric comorbidity and criminal history and sexualized rapists and pedophilic child molesters are more similar as regards to psychiatric comorbidity (anxiety, depression, and aggression) and criminal history variables than nonsexualized and sexualized rapists are. Preliminary findings confirmed the hypotheses: the authors found significant differences between paraphilic and sexualized sex offenders on one hand--regardless whether they had offended against minors or adults--and a group of sex offenders exhibiting a history of high lifestyle impulsivity on the other hand. From a psychiatric clinical point of view, paraphilic or sexualized rapists could be shown to resemble more the pedophilic child molesters. Therapeutic approaches should take these findings into account.     

Cell line DNA typing in forensic genetics--the necessity of reliable standards

The incorporation of reference DNA is crucial to the validation of any DNA typing protocol. This paper aims to provide a panel of reference DNAs for actual forensic profiling strategies, i.e. autosomal and gonosomal STR typing as well as mtDNA sequencing. We have characterised three human lymphoid cell lines, GM9947, GM9948 and GM3657, and considered 58 autosomal and gonosomal microsatellites as well as the mitochondrial control region sequence. Well-established markers and STRs recently developed for forensic use were involved. K562 DNA samples which we purchased from two different suppliers were also analysed. They revealed conflicting results with regard to the ChrX STR marker genotype. Hence, we suggest that K562 is no longer used for the calibration of profiling techniques. Our investigation establishes a panel of one female and two male DNA samples as an STR allelic ladder calibration tool and offers information on six alleles of each autosome (AS) marker, three alleles of each X chromosome (ChrX) marker and two alleles of each ChrY marker. In addition, sequences of the mitochondrial control region of the three DNAs are communicated in order to provide sequencing quality control.     

Regierungsabwahl ohne Regierungsneuwahl

Ohne Zusammenfassung Dieser Kommentar zur Bundestagswahl wurde am 4. Oktober 2005 der Redaktion der PVS eingereicht. Die Autoren bedanken sich bei der Redaktion der PVS und bei Thomas Gschwend für Verbesserungsvorschl?ge, die am 12. Oktober 2005 in die Endversion eingearbeitet wurden.     

Regierungsbildung in Mehrebenensystemen: Zur Erklärung der Koalitionsbildung in den deutschen Bundesländern

The German federal governmental system is conceptualized as a full-fledged two-level system, in which the Länder governments participate in federal policy decisions via the second chamber Bundesrat and in which the stakes of state coalition building are high for the federal parties. Our research question is whether we can find systematic empirical evidence for an influence of federal on state parties to build state governments whose party composition is concordant with federal politics, containing either exclusively federal governmental or non-governmental parties. We answer this question by indirect evidence. We show that such concordant majority coalitions occur above average even if important coalition predictors are controlled as minimal winning coalitions or participation of dominant and/or central players. We predict the 182 actual Land governments which were formed in the period from 1949 to 2003 compared to the possible governments in each situation.     

Intellectual emigration from Hitler’s Germany

His books include Higher Civil Servants in American Society; Work and Authority in Industry; Max Weber: An Intellectual Portrait; National Building and Citizenship; Embattled Reason: Essays in Social Knowledge; Kings or People: Power and the Mandate to Rule; Force, Fate, and Freedom;and From Berlin to Berkeley.     

Skeleton find from Roman times suspected as an homicide victim

A human skeleton was found during construction work on the concrete foundations of a fence built 17 years before. The situation seemed to suggest that a corpse had been disposed of 17 years ago. Forensic and osteological examinations showed that death had been caused by semi-sharp and blunt craniocerebral trauma. However, there were morphological findings which indicated that the body had been buried in soil for at least 50 years. Several additional objects found nearby and the proximity to the Limes pointed to a Roman context. With the help of the radiocarbon method, the time of death could be dated to about 245-263 AD. A recent act of violence could hence be ruled out. According to the situation at the scene, it had to be assumed, however, that the skeleton must have been discovered already during the construction work done 17 years before and that the find had not been reported. Such behaviour is a phenomenon quite often encountered in practice.     

Rolling the Dice on Foreclosure Prevention: Differences Across Mortgage Servicers in Loan Modifications and Loan Cure Rates

Mortgage servicing has garnered increased attention since the foreclosure crisis. As the interface between borrowers and investors, servicers make the decision to either grant a loan modification or to foreclose. This study examines servicer loan modification practices for a national sample of delinquent subprime loans, and assesses the extent to which those practices are associated with foreclosures. The research reveals significant differences across servicers in loan cure rates, which are related to servicers’ propensity to offer loan modifications and to the level of relief offered to borrowers. The observed differences across servicers and the implications of this heterogeneity for foreclosure prevention underscore the importance of additional data, research, and policies that can increase the uniformity and transparency of servicing practices.