Indicators of electoral victory

We explore the role that campaign expenditures play in determining electoral outcomes. We study a two-party contest where campaign funds can affect the preferences of voters regarding the saliency of two political issues. We show that an advantage in campaign resources, a pre-campaign partisan advantage, an advantage on every salient issue, or a combination of these indicators, do not always guarantee electoral victory. By contrast, electoral victory is guaranteed if the sum of the proportions of the electorate supporting a party on every salient issue is greater than a critical value. For that to happen it is necessary (but not sufficient) that the party has an advantage on every salient issue.     

Reinforcement vs. change: The political influence of the media

The aim of this paper is to analyze competition between two ideological media outlets that want to influence their viewers so as to boot the number of votes for their preferred political party. We consider two ways of influencing viewers, which correspond to two prominent theories borrowed from the literature on Sociology: the “Reinforcement Approach” and the “Attitudinal Orientations Approach”. Our findings show that the aim of influencing viewers generally pushes media outlets to differentiate their opinions, and that the extend of this differentiation deeply depends on the viewers’ behavior. More precisely, we observe that if the viewers channel hop, media outlets end up differentiating their opinions more than if the viewers receive all their information from just one media.     

Economic policy elites and democratization

Is the authoritarian potential of policy elites a mortal threat to the consolidation of democracy in Latin America? This article suggests that in the context of democratic transitions, significant variations may exist in the performance of technocratic roles. In most countries in the region, elected governments faced the crisis of the 1980s by retaining markedly technocratic and exclusionary styles of policy-making. In Chile, a highly technocratic form of authoritarianism was succeeded by a novel pattern of pragmatic cooperation between technical and political elites. Democratic institutions were reestablished while a strong economic team enforced coherence and continuity in economic policy. Historical and institutional factors are used to show that Chile may now be nearer the democratic pole than other “hybrid” democratic-authoritarian regimes in the region.     

Direct carboxyhemoglobin determination by derivative spectroscopy

A fast and sensitive method for the determination of carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) in blood using derivative spectroscopy is described. The addition of sodium dithionite as a reducing agent is not required. The concentration interval studied was from 0.5% to 100% COHb.     

Mismatch distribution analysis of Y-STR haplotypes as a tool for the evaluation of identity-by-state proportions and significance of matches--the European picture

We suggest the use of the mismatch distribution methodology as an easy way to estimate the distance between all pairs of haplotypes present in a sample. This approach allows the evaluation of the proportion of pairs of Y-STR haplotypes that are prone to become identical by state (IBS), in one generation, by recurrent mutation, a statistic of major importance in the forensic field. The mismatch approach presents some advantages alternatively to the empirical one, since it is not necessary to have simultaneous information on STRs and SNPs, and it allows the evaluation of IBS also within-haplogroups. The estimation of IBS at an European scale showed that there is a high population substructuring for this parameter, increasing from southern-central European countries towards west and north, in accordance to what was found for Y-biallelic markers. This result seems to imply a more careful use of large databases for matching evaluation, even in the absence of population structure for general Y-STR diversity. Furthermore, mismatch distribution can be used to measure the distance between a particular haplotype and all the haplotypes in a sample. When applied to the most frequent haplotypes in Europe it revealed that the opportunity for IBS is not directly related to the frequency of a haplotype, but highly dependent on the proportion of neighbouring haplotypes--so, that reporting on the haplotype frequency for evaluating the significance of a match can be misleading.     

Pros and cons in the use of SNPs in forensic kinship investigation: a comparative analysis with STRs

Recent advances in single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) research have raised the possibility that these markers could replace the forensically established short tandem repeats (STRs). In this work, we compare STRs and SNPs applicability for kinship investigation in terms of expected informative content and probability of occurrence of "difficult cases" (when isolated Mendelian incompatibilities between alleged father and child are found). Since SNPs have a much lower mutation rate than STRs, these difficulties were expected to occur less frequently if SNPs were used instead of STRs. The purpose of this paper is to make some simulations allowing the estimation of how often such difficult cases are expected to occur using both types of markers and how serious can be their impact in routine work. Our results demonstrate that a battery based exclusively on SNPs matching the informative power of current STR kits would be prone, if applied to routine paternity investigation, to the occurrence of cases where the statistical evidence would be inconclusive. We infer that the introduction of a SNP based strategy, as a substitute to the now classical STR approach poses statistical problems that must be carefully evaluated.     

STR allelic frequencies for an African population sample (Equatorial Guinea) using AmpFlSTR Identifiler and Powerplex 16 kits

We present allele frequencies and forensic parameters for 17 STRs included in the AmpFlSTR Identifiler (CSF1PO, D2S1338, D3S1358, D5S818, D7S820, D8S1179, D13S317, D16S539, D18S51, D19S433, D21S11, FGA, TH01, TPO and VWA) and Powerplex 16 System (CSF1PO, D3S1358, D5S818, D7S820, D8S1179, D13S317, D16S539, D18S51, D21S11, FGA, Penta D, Penta E, TH01, TPO and VWA) in a sample of 134 unrelated individuals from Equatorial Guinea located in Western Africa, between Cameroon and Gabon. Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was tested for each locus and the sample was compared with five African databases: Promega's and AB Applied Biosystems African-Americans and samples from Mozambique, from Cabinda (Angola) and Guinea-Bissau.