全球性剥削型人口贩运发案率的评估策略研究

评估性剥削人口贩运在全球的发案数是一项艰巨的任务,由于缺乏统一的措施以及可行的研究方法,关于人口贩运的实证研究非常缺乏,而了解性剥削的人口贩运活动对制定有效的反制措施具有至关重要的作用。根据针对目前已查明的人口贩运案件的深入挖掘和利用受害者收集的一手数据,本文试图提出基于外推法的评估全球性剥削人口贩运的发案数的可行策略。     

Strategic competence and agency: individuals overcoming barriers to change in South African higher education

Social relations, institutional arrangements and cultures bequeathed by South Africa’s system of apartheid continue be felt in the present despite the country’s formal transition to democracy 25 years ago. Race, class and gender inequities continue to structure South African society in ways that have proven intransigent to change, leading to growing frustration and widespread public dissatisfaction expressed in multiple arenas including worker strikes, service delivery and university student protests. While it is clear that social structures inherited from the past are difficult to change, it is also the case that change does happen. In this paper, we discuss the findings of a hermeneutic phenomenological study with 10 academics at one historically White university in South Africa, who have been agents of change within their particular context. We show how participants engaged in struggles to counter resistance to their efforts. In doing so they demonstrate what we call ‘strategic competence’ – the ability to act in ways that not only draw on personal resources but recognise the resources, contradictions and opportunities offered within the existing limitations of the social structure. Strategic competence thus emerges as a central feature of agency, enabling individuals to stretch the boundaries of what is possible.     

Predicting Proportionality: The Case for Algorithmic Sentencing

A basic principle in sentencing offenders is proportionality. However, proportionality judgments are often left to the discretion of the judge, raising familiar concerns of arbitrariness and bias. This paper considers the case for systematizing judgments of proportionality in sentencing by means of an algorithm. The aim of such an algorithm would be to predict what a judge in that jurisdiction would regard as a proportionate sentence in a particular case. A predictive algorithm of this kind would not necessarily undermine justice in individual cases, is consistent with a particularistic account of moral judgment, and is attractive even in the face of uncertainty as to the legitimate purposes of punishment.     

Up and Down,Old and New: Values and Value Systems of MPs and Voters in France

MPs are often criticised as being homogeneous. This is well known in terms of social background or gender, but the criticism also holds for values and norms. MPs are said to share normative agreements on the essential points and demonstrate differences on second-order issues. This criticism is even more widespread regarding the new politics based on the cultural divide, notably vis-à-vis politicians from the extreme right as far as immigration, European integration or globalisation are concerned. In this contribution, these criticisms are addressed by investigating the degree of normative agreements and disagreements of French MPs. Furthermore, the differences both in old and new politics between MPs on the one hand and the electorate as a whole and their supporters on the other hand are evaluated. It is concluded that MPs are definitely not all the same and the degrees of difference among MPs or with the electorate are far from being those expected.     

The Supreme Court and the Social Conception of Abortion

Skeptics of Supreme Court power have pointed to abortion policy as an example of surprising limits on the justices' power to change society. I argue, however, that the Court's ruling in Roe v. Wade played a critical role in transforming how Americans think and talk about abortion. I develop an account of the development of the social conception of abortion from a critical reading of twentieth century American journalism and then test some predictions of that account through the use of quantitative content analyses. I conclude by discussing some implications for the study of judicial politics and public constitutionalism.     

The Political Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Firm-Level Analysis

Many large-N cross-national studies claim to show that political institutions and phenomena determine where foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. In this article, I argue that these studies tend to overemphasize statistical significance and often neglect to assess the explanatory or predictive power of their theories. To illustrate the problem, I estimate variations of a statistical model published in an influential article on “Political Risk, Institutions, and FDI.” I find that none of the political variables that the authors consider accounts for much of the variation in aggregate FDI inflows. To ensure that this underwhelming result is not driven by misspecification or measurement error, I leverage a large firm-level data set on the investment location decisions of thousands of multinational firms. Using nonparametric machine-learning techniques and out-of-sample tests, I show that gravity variables can help us develop very accurate expectations about firm behavior but that none of the 31 “political determinants” of FDI that I consider can do much to improve our expectations. These findings have important implications because they suggest that governments retain some room to move in the face of economic globalization.