Statistical Inference and Forensic Evidence: Evaluating a Bullet Lead Match

This experiment tested the ability of undergraduate mock jurors (N=295) to draw appropriate conclusions from statistical data on the diagnostic value of forensic evidence. Jurors read a summary of a homicide trial in which the key evidence was a bullet lead "match" that was either highly diagnostic, non-diagnostic, or of unknown diagnostic value. There was also a control condition in which the forensic "match" was not presented. The results indicate that jurors as a group used the statistics appropriately to distinguish diagnostic from non-diagnostic forensic evidence, giving considerable weight to the former and little or no weight to the latter. However, this effect was attributable to responses of a subset of jurors who expressed confidence in their ability to use statistical data. Jurors who lacked confidence in their statistical ability failed to distinguish highly diagnostic from non-diagnostic forensic evidence; they gave no weight to the forensic evidence regardless of its diagnostic value. Confident jurors also gave more weight to evidence of unknown diagnostic value. Theoretical and legal implications are discussed.     

Unsuspected central nervous system gummas in a case of "cerebral infarct" associated with cocaine use

A 54-year-old African-American male was hospitalized with a left "cerebrovascular accident," altered mental status, agitation, rhabdomyolysis, and hypernatremia. Laboratory tests found cocaine in his system and a positive RPR (rapid plasmin reagin test). A CAT (computed axial tomography) scan without contrast taken 8 days prior to his death showed a left middle cerebral artery infarct, with edema and mass effect, and a 1-cm midline shift to the right. He underwent symptomatic treatment, eventually suffered cardiopulmonary arrest and multiorgan failure, and expired 8 days after admission. The left cerebral lesion diagnosed clinically as a cerebral infarct was actually determined to be a syphilitic gumma on postmortem neuropathologic examination. Neurosyphilis, although rare, should be considered in the differential diagnosis of space-occupying lesions in the brain because cases of syphilis continue to occur both sporadically and as an opportunistic infection associated with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and because neurosyphilis is treatable.     

解读《治安管理处罚法》中的治安调解

《治安管理处罚法》对治安调解作出了新的规定,如何正确理解该规定,如情节轻重的判断、民事赔偿的解决、何谓打架斗殴等,是公安机关适用治安调解必须要明确的关键问题。     

From Iron Bowl to Iron Stomach

A few decades ago, Iron Bowl referred to not having to go hungry in China if you were employed by the Agovernment. The government gave you a job that secured the filling of one's rice bowl. This concept and practice did create loyalty, as the times were hard. China has moved far past those times to become the     

偏好与理性选择：保守主义人士也能接受的规制——行为经济学与“非对称父爱主义”的案例

非对称父爱主义的规制目的是帮助那些有限理性的人们避免犯成本过高的错误,同时仅对理性的人们加以很小的成本甚至不加以成本。结合了认知心理学与经济学的行为经济学表明,有时候即便有健康心智的人们在某些特定的、可预见的情形下也可能不会为他们长远的自身利益行事,很多非对称父爱主义的规制就是基于这种考虑而产生的。这些规制体现在缺省规则、对信息的提供或重组、冷却期、对消费者选择的限制等方面。非对称父爱主义并不必定是严厉的,它可能会引导产生比现有政策更温和的规则。而且新技术为将这种规制作为一种新的对规制选择的成本收益评估标准提供了新的可能性,因而值得被认真对待。