Conflict Expectations and the Paradox of Economic Coercion

Despite their increasing importance, there is little theoretical understanding of why nation-states initiate economic sanctions or what determines their success. These events are often explained away as "symbolic politics" driven completely by domestic-level factors. This article develops a simple game-theoretic model of economic coercion to show that both "senders" and "targets" of economic coercion incorporate expectations of future conflict as well as the short-run opportunity costs of coercion into their behavior. Conflict expectations have a paradoxical effect on coercion events. First, senders that anticipate frequent conflicts will be more willing to initiate economic coercion, even if such attempts are costly. Senders that anticipate few conflicts will not threaten sanctions unless they incur minimal costs and the target would suffer significantly. While a robust anticipation of future disputes might make the sender prefer a coercive strategy, it also reduces its ability to obtain concessions. Target states that anticipate frequent conflict with the sender will make fewer concessions. Ironically, a sender will obtain the most favorable distribution of payoffs when it cares the least about its reputation or the distribution of gains. These hypotheses are tested statistically, with the results strongly supporting the conflict expectations model.     

Prescriptive and Elicitive Approaches to Conflict Resolution: Examples from Papua New Guinea

Negotiation Journal -     

The case of the empty body.

Autopsy on an externally intact decomposed body showed empty thoracic and abdominal cavities with no trace of normal organ content. The process producing this previously unencountered situation is discussed.     

Criteria for differentiating self- or other-inflicted injuries of alleged or real victims

A synoptic study of six cases of self-inflicted sharp force injuries is presented, where young, mostly female people had simulated assaults to gain sympathy or other personal advantage. The morphological distinctives of simulated assault wounds from such of real assault are worked out and the common situative and motivative background is cleared up.     

Differential diagnosis of accident and resuscitation traumas

The purpose of this paper is to define the criteria for the differential diagnosis of trauma following resuscitation and road accidents. To this end, 311 cases of thoracic and epigastric trauma were selected from the 2893 medico-legal autopsies carried out between 1979 and 1982 at the Institute of Forensic Medicine of the University of Heidelberg. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation had to be considered as the cause of trauma in 140 of these, but 45 of this group were excluded from further evaluation as they had been the victims of blunt trauma and no clear-cut distinction was possible between trauma resulting from an accident and trauma resulting from resuscitation. Thus, we were left with 95 cases of internal injury that presented as emergencies and in whom death followed resuscitation, as a group for comparison with 171 road accident victims who had not received cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Rib fractures, predominantly on the left side, were established in half the cases resuscitated, sternal fractures also being found in one-third of these victims. Bleeding at various sites, including hemato-thorax, was rare, with an incidence of 15%, thus making it highly unlikely that serious traumas caused by resuscitation were a major factor in the cause of death. This paper encompasses an extensive discussion on serious injuries, such as aortic and gastric ruptures, in this connection.     

Drowning of a Friedreich's ataxia patient

We here report an unusual, apparently accidental death, in which weakness associated with a progressive neuromuscular disease, Friedreich's ataxia, apparently resulted in the drowning of the deceased. The possibility of neuromuscular disease as a rare cause of drownings should not be overlooked.     

Correlations on radioimmunoassay, fluorescence polarization immunoassay, and enzyme immunoassay of cannabis metabolites with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry analysis of 11-nor-delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol-9-carboxylic acid in urine specimens.

Results obtained from three commercial immunoassay kits, Abuscreen, TDx, and EMIT, commonly used for the initial test of urine cannabinoids (and metabolites) were correlated with the 11-nor-delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol-9-carboxylic acid (9-THC-COOH) concentration as determined by GC/MS. Correlation coefficients obtained based on 26 (out of 1359 total sample population) highly relevant samples, are 0.601 and 0.438 for Abuscreen and TDx. Correlation coefficients obtained from a parallel study on a different set of 47 (out of 5070 total sample population) highly relevant specimens are 0.658 and 0.575 for Abuscreen and Emit. The immunoassay concentration levels, that correspond to the commonly used 15 ng/ml GC/MS cutoff value for 9-THC-COOH, as calculated from the regression equations are 82 ng/ml and 75 ng/ml for TDx and EMIT and 120 ng/ml and 72 ng/ml for Abuscreen manufactured at two different time periods. The difference of these calculated corresponding concentrations provides quantitative evidence of the reagent specificity differences.