SELF-REPORTED DELINQUENCY AND A COMBINED DELINQUENCY SERIOUSNESS SCALE BASED ON BOYS,MOTHERS, AND TEACHERS: CONCURRENT AND PREDICTIVE VALIDITY FOR AFRICAN-AMERICANS AND CAUCASIANS*

The Pittsburgh Youth Study is a prospective longitudinal survey of three samples of Pittsburgh boys (each containing about 500 boys) initially studied in first, fourth, and seventh grades. The first two data collection waves yielded self-reported delinquency and combined delinquency seriousness scores (the combined scores based on information from boy, mother, and teacher) for the middle sample (up to an average age of 10.7 years) and oldest sample (up to an average age of 13.9 years). These scores were compared with records of petitions to the Allegheny County Juvenile Court for delinquency offenses before and up to six years after the assessments. The area under the ROC curve was used as a measure of validity. Concurrent validity was higher than predictive validity. The combined scale had similar concurrent validity but greater predictive validity than the self-report scale, and the combined scale also identified a greater number of boys as serious delinquents. Concurrent validity for admitting offenses was higher for Caucasians, but concurrent validity for admitting arrests was higher for African-Americans. There were no consistent ethnic differences in predictive validity. There was an increase in predictive validity, for both African-Americans and Caucasians, by combining self-report data with information from other sources. Afrer controlling for delinquency measures, African-Americans were more likely than Caucasians to be petitioned in the future, but not in the past. In this research, ethnic differences in official delinquency were partly attributable to ethnic differences in delinquent behavior and were not attributable to differential ethnic attrition or differential ethnic validity of measures of delinquent behavior.     

Fatal intoxications in the Nordic countries. A forensic toxicological study with special reference to young drug addicts

Fatal intoxications in the 15-34 age group in the five Nordic countries during the years 1984 and 1985 (Sweden only in 1984) were investigated. The known drug addicts were studied separately. The highest incidence of intoxications, calculated per 10(5) population, was found in Finland (11.3), followed by Denmark (10.3), Sweden (8.5), Iceland (7.2) and Norway (6.6). The percentage of intoxications caused by drugs was 92 in Denmark, 71 in Norway, 66 in Sweden, 50 in Finland and 17 in Iceland. Ethanol intoxications were seen 5-7 and 2-3 times as frequently in Finland and in Iceland, respectively, than in the other three countries. Carbon monoxide intoxications accounted for two-thirds of all fatal intoxications in Iceland. Drug addicts accounted for 62% of all fatal intoxications in the Danish material. The corresponding figures were 33% in the Norwegian, 16% in the Swedish and 5% in the Finnish material. No deaths in drug addicts were found in Iceland. Most drug addicts in Denmark, Norway and Sweden died of hard drugs and most in Norway and Sweden, from heroin or morphine, whereas in Denmark other strong analgesics, such as methadone, dextropropoxyphene and ketobemidone, accounted for 40% of all hard-drug-related fatal intoxications. To a certain extent the results reflect differences in the legal autopsy routines in the various Nordic countries. However, the ascertainment of drug addicts is assumed to be near-complete in each country.     

A LATENT TRAIT APPROACH TO UNIFYING CRIMINAL CAREERS *

We propose a latent trait model that simultaneously accounts for both participation in crime and the frequency of crimes, phenomena that the criminal career model attributes to different causal processes. The criminal career model is predicated on a categorical distinction between active offenders and nonoffenders, but the latent trait model assumes a continuous distribution of propensity to offend. Our specific statistical model relates a relatively stable and general latent propensity to engage in crime to the frequency of criminal behavior. The latent trait model successfully fit both the proportion of offenders (participation) and frequency of offending for several samples and several measures of offending. The model fit both samples of whites and nonwhites and both males and females. This shows that separate causal processes are not necessary to account for group differences in frequency and in participation, which disproves the major evidence in favor of the criminal career model. Finally, the latent trait model yielded evidence that disparate sex differences in rates of participation for different categories of offenses are consistent with a single difference on a latent trait. This demonstrates the latent trait model's potential for parsimoniously unifying knowledge about criminal careers.     

Constitutional,legal and political problems of local government in Nigeria

The new Nigerian local government system was clearly intended by its creators to be a representative and democractic system of devolution. The speed with which elected councils have been dissolved and replaced by caretaker committees and state appointees contrasts strangely with the constitutional provision that there should be a system of local government by democratically elected local councils. The constitutionality of dissolution has been confused with the constitutionality of further local government reform. Dissolution should be seen as an emergency measure to be used rarely in cases of proven maladministration by a local government. Further reform and reorganization of a state's system of local government should be regarded as a legitimate power of the state legislature. The role given by the Constitution to local government should not be interpreted as entrenching the system. Constitutional amendment is not required should further reform be necessary.