A model for disaggregating political change

We present a model for identifying the components of aggregate change in an electorate between two points in time. When the electorate is constant in size, change in the mean opinion disaggregates into two components: conversion among those who continue to participate in the electorate (Stayers), and replacement of those who drop out of the electorate at Time₁ (Dropouts) by Newcomers to the electorate at Time₂. We add to this simple formulation the possibility of variation in the size of the electorate. When an electorate expands, the model includes a mobilization term to accommodate the fact that there are more Newcomers at Time₂ than Dropouts at Time₁. When an electorate shrinks in size, the demobilization term reflects the fact that Newcomers as a group are smaller than Dropouts. The model includes appropriate weights for each component so that the change in opinion (or any other aggregate characteristic in the electorate) can be allocated across the three components. We apply the model to Iowa caucus attenders in both parties between 1984 and 1988, and we suggest that the model can be also productively applied to a variety of contexts besides nomination politics, where fluctuations in the size of electorates are significant.Ronald B. Rapoport. College of William and Mary.     

From Clean Air to Climate Policy in the Netherlands and Switzerland: How Two Small States Deal with a Global Problem

Guided by the question "Who can learn from whom?" the author compares how domestic actors in the Netherlands and Switzerland tackle global problems involving scarce natural resources. Variables such as storylines, policy instruments, and actor networks are framed by political traditions and the general "philosophy" behind each country's policy. Both countries pursue their own strategy, and give environmental policy high priority in their political agendas. But Dutch policy is shaped by a specific tradition of negotiation and "voluntary" agreements between ministries and polluter groups. Swiss policy emphasizes binding legislation. Empirical observations are embedded in political theories dealing with potential shifts from sectoral thinking towards ecological modernization, sustainable principles, and network management. It is argued that the real challenge for politics and science is to include normative debate in open policy‐making systems. However, it is suggested that there is not much time left to experiment with new policy styles.     

The distribution of shotgun pellets after ricochet from an intermediate target surface

This paper presents a geometrical model for the ricochet of shotgun pellets from an intermediate target surface. The model predicts that after ricochet the shotgun pellet pattern will be elongated in the direction parallel to the intermediate target surface, as has been found in empirical studies. This paper also shows that the angle of impact theta of a mass of shotgun pellets with a target surface can be calculated without significant error from the width W and the length L of the pellet pattern using the formula: sin theta= W/L.     

Federal Aid and Economic Development in Nonmetropolitan Communities: The UDAG Program

In 1977 Congress enacted the Urban Development Action Grant(UDAG) program to help distressed communities develop economically.This article draws from case studies of ten nonmetropolitancommunities with Action Grants. It focuses on the factors thataffect the completion and benefits of projects, particularlyrelations with private developers and local management capacity.The studies show that the UDAG program has been flexible inaccommodating differences in economic development needs as perceivedlocally. However, many of the projects have not produced thenumbers of jobs originally proposed. Several communities encounteredproblems with private developers who either abandoned the projectsor failed to produce expected results. Smaller communities inthe sample tended to lack grantsmanship, management, and legalresources.     

Siegfried Landshut: Politik. Grundbegriffe und Analysen. Eine Auswahl aus dem Gesamtwerk in zwei Bänden. Hg. von Rainer Nicolaysen

Politische Vierteljahresschrift -     

Jewish Theology in Germany: The co-Existence of Secular and Religious Discourse

How often do secular and religious discourses communicate and interrelate at points where they intersect in society? When the Science of Judaism (Wissenschaft des Judentums) evolved at the beginning of the nineteenth century, it intended, through both theological and secular studies, to demonstrate the general value of Jewish culture and civilization. Although denied a place in the public university system until after the Shoah, Jewish Studies departments have since been established at various German universities, and, in 2013, the School of Jewish Theology of the University of Potsdam was opened as the first Jewish divinity school in the history of the German university system. With this, what was once a utopian dream became a reality, and both branches of the Science of Judaism, religious and secular, became undisputed parts of the German academic scene, using similar tools for differing aims. Two prime examples of the intersection of the secular and religious in Germany today are the proliferation of divinity schools at state universities, on the one hand, and the development of military chaplaincy in the armed forces, on the other. Both of these, through contractual agreements, aim to regulate and facilitate religious pluralism within a secular state. While the one has already begun to take place, the other is currently under discussion.