The calculus of voting: An empirical test

Abstract. According to the rational choice model, the calculus of voting takes the form of the equation R = BP − C, where the net rewards for voting (R) are a function of the instrumental benefits from the preferred outcome compared to others (B) and the probability (P) of casting the decisive vote that secures these benefits, minus the costs of becoming informed and going to the polls (C). Here, we provide a systematic test of this model. The analysis relies on two surveys, conducted during the 1995 Quebec referendum and the 1996 British Columbia provincial election, in which very specific questions measured each element of the model. As well, this study incorporates two other factors that can affect the propensity to vote — Respondents' level of political interest and their sense of duty. We find that B, P, and C each matter, but only among those with a relatively weak sense of duty. The feeling that one has a moral obligation to vote is the most powerful motivation to go to the polls. We conclude that the rational choice model is useful, but only in explaining behaviour at the margins of this important norm.     

The Behavioral Effects of Environmental Regimes: Collective-Action vs. Social-Practice Models

International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics - Most observers agree that institutions play significant roles both in causing and in confronting large scale environmental...     

Active living and biking: tracing the evolution of a biking system in Arlington, Virginia

In Arlington, Virginia, a steady evolutionary change in biking policy during the last three decades has yielded some of the nation's best biking assets. It has a comprehensive, well-connected, highly integrated, well-mapped, and well-signed system of shared-use paved trails, bike lanes, bike routes, and other biking assets, such as workplace showers. Understanding the conditions that led to Arlington's current biking system can provide lessons in the strategy and tactics of active-living politics. One potentially effective political strategy that was successful in Arlington is for activists to pressure elected officials to select professional managers who see bike-ways as crucial to the overall transportation system. Then it is important to formalize the government-citizen relationship through an advisory panel. Also, in Arlington, the incremental creation of biking assets helped create demand for more and better facilities. In turn, this created political support for expanding and upgrading. Finally, Arlington used potentially negative circumstances (e.g., the building of highway corridors, the introduction of the Metro) as opportunities to change the built environment in ways that have encouraged more active living.     

Structural analysis of human rib fracture and implications for forensic interpretation

Patterns of rib fractures are of significant clinical and forensic interest. Linking patterns of rib fracture with specific physical events provides a foundation for understanding the nature of traumatic events that are associated with rib fracture in forensic contexts. In this study, isolated human ribs (n = 8) were end-loaded to failure to investigate: (i) local deformations (bone strain) prior to and during structural failure, (ii) location of ultimate failure, and (iii) fracture mode. Structural properties of ribs were used to calculate theoretical stresses to determine whether such calculations could be used to predict site of fracture. Ribs fractured on the sternal side of midshaft in all experiments, but mode of failure varied with transverse, buckle, spiral, and "butterfly" fractures observed. Comparison of calculated stress with observed strain values suggest that experimental, rather than theoretical, approaches will be most productive in furthering understanding rib fracture in forensic contexts.     

Psychological Injury: Systems, Change Processes, Development

This paper presents a model of chronic pain [Young and Chapman (Pain, affect, nonlinear dynamical systems, and chronic pain: Bringing order to disorder. In G. Young, A. W. Kane, & K. Nicholson (Eds.), Causality of psychological injury: Presenting evidence in court (pp. 197–241). New York: Springer, 2007)]. It includes extensive coverage of the systems perspective. The paper expands the model to medically unexplained symptoms and provides a developmental model of how these may unfold and influence adult presentation after events such as accidents. Similarly, the model is examined for the developmental roots of personality disorder. The paper examines other threats to validity of diagnosis in cases of psychological injury.     

以吉大旧工业区改造为契机,打造珠海中心商务区

珠海市吉大旧工业区在珠海旧工业区中规模最大,随着工业发展的重心西移,工业区已经逐渐走向衰落.而经过长期建设,吉大城区已形成为一个颇具规模的商贸区,具有很大的区位优势和发展潜力.我们建议:以吉大旧工业区改造为契机,把吉大城区打造成珠海的中心商务区,作为泛珠三角横琴经济合作区的强力支撑,并为"9 2"泛珠三角地区合作与交流提供最佳平台.珠海中心商务区的规划理念应该是高品位的,规划应体现科学先进性、经济可行性、交通规划的超前性和多元复合性.珠海中心商务区的投融资、开发建设、运作与管理都应该按照国际惯例操作,力争成为城市运营和管理的典范.     

Book reviews

Christopher Andrew and Oleg Gordievsky, Instructions From the Centre. Top Secret Files on KGB Foreign Operations 1975-1985 (Hodder and Stoughton, 1991), 238pp.

Christopher Andrew and Oleg Gordievsky (eds.), More 'Instructions from the Centre': Top Secret Files on KGB Global Operations, 1975-1985 Intelligence and National Security (London, Frank Cass) 130pp. £24 hb.

Gunnar Skogmar, Nuclear Triangle: Relations between the United States, Great Britain and France in the Atomic Energy Field 1939-50 (Copenhagen, Political Studies Press, 1993), 240pp.

K.S. Sandhu, Sharon Siddique, Chandran Jeshurun, Ananda Rajah, Joseph L.H. Tan, Pushpa Thambipillai (eds.), The ASEAN Reader (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1992), xxvi + 582pp. S$58/ US$39.90 (soft cover); S$89/US$59.90 (hard cover). ISBN 981-981-3016-41-8 (soft cover), 981-3016-42-6 (hard cover).