Estimating Size of Drug Users in Macau: an Open Population Capture-Recapture Model with Data Augmentation Using Public Registration Data

Successful drug intervention policies rely on timely assessment of size of drug users and close monitoring of trend regarding drug abuse. Taking advantage of data collected by the Central Registration System for Drug Abusers of Macau (CRSDAM), this study applied open population capture-recapture models with data augmentation techniques to estimate the size of drug users and to identify influential factors on capture and survival probabilities from 2009 to 2014. In particular, the data augmentation technique was used to address missing data issues. The estimated size of drug users has been slowly declining from 2442 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2042–2914) in 2009 to 807 (95% BCI 654–1000) in 2014 with a small fluctuation of 2251 (95% BIC 1950–2599) in 2011, and the estimated cumulative size of drug users is 6199 (95% BCI 5651–6873), which is correspondent to a prevalence rate of 1.20% of the current population aged 15 to 54. Although the estimated sizes of total, narcotic, and other drug users were declining, the size of stimulant users might be increasing. People who used narcotics as their first drug and who were reported by governmental agencies were more likely to stay in the registration system, while those who used needle injection were less likely to stay. Governmental agencies, higher education, and using needle injection were negatively associated with the probability of capture over time, while using narcotics as the first drug was positively associated with it.     

全球视野下的社会性别预算:国外经验

全球范围内的社会性别预算实践已经历了三十年的探索,积累了丰富的技术经验和理论框架。至今,各国根据不同国情,形成了具有多样性的驱动机制、实践主体以及发展特征。国际社会广泛的性别预算实践,不仅是分析公共财政预算对社会性别不同影响的有效工具,也是公平分配社会资源、促进国家可持续发展的有效途径。这对我国实现国家治理现代化,并将性别意识主流融入主流政策,进而实现社会的公平正义,都具有启示与借鉴作用。     

电阻测量法和光谱成像技术联用鉴别添改变造字迹

目的 黑色含碳笔形成的添改文件的检验一直是文件检验领域的难点和热点问题。对于原始字迹和添改字迹笔画均为黑色含碳色料书写的文件鉴定,通常借助光学仪器和显微设备进行形态学检验,易受外界环境和主体认知力的影响和限制。本文将通过笔画电阻测量法和光谱成像技术的联合应用,为鉴别黑色含碳笔添改字迹变造文件提供一种无损、便捷、有效的检验方法。方法 利用电阻测量仪和多波段光谱成像仪,选择同标准的测量点和基准点,分别对添改字迹与原始字迹笔画的电阻值和光谱数据进行测量、比较和分析。结果 实验结果显示不同黑色含碳笔书写的原始字迹和添改字迹笔画的电阻值和光谱数据存在差异,这种差异可以为鉴别添改字迹形成的变造文件提供依据。结论 电阻测量法和多光谱技术由于其无损、快速、准确等优点能够用于添改字迹的检验。两种技术并用的方法突破了含碳笔添加字迹鉴别中形态学检验的局限性,从定量的角度相互印证,使鉴定意见更为科学、可靠。     

Multilevel public funding for small business innovation: a review of US state SBIR match programs

US State governments invest in early-stage innovative activity as an economic development strategy. Nevertheless, attention directed at the public sector’s role in this capacity has been placed on federal policy actions overlooking the growing role of states. The primary aims of this paper are two-fold: (1) to articulate the motivations for multilevel public support for small business innovative activity, placing emphasis on state level incentives directed towards entrepreneurial activity; and (2) to empirically evaluate the State Match Phase I (SMP-I) program. The SMP-I program is a diffuse state level policy designed to complement the federal Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program by offering noncompetitive matching funds to the state’s successful SBIR Phase I recipients. This offers an opportunity to examine the marginal impact of public R&D given the state intervention. This paper employs a state and year fixed effects model and considers two outcome variables—SBIR Phase II success rates and SBIR Phase I application activity. To account for industrial heterogeneity, the data are stratified by the federal mission agencies. Results from the empirical analysis indicate that the state match increases the Phase II success rates for firms participating in the National Science Foundation SBIR program.