The logic of interdisciplinary studies

In this article, I argue that emerging economies are systematically becoming more susceptible to both currency and banking crises after financial liberalisation (FL). Using data for 27 emerging economies from 1973 to 1998, univariate and multivariate analyses indicate that the likelihood of currency crises and banking crises increase after FL. In particular, liberalisation allows more liquidity to enter an emerging economy, which finds its way into productive and speculative projects. What is common to both types of crises is a significant increase in speculative financing, thereby increasing the chance for borrower default. Thus, the outflow of international capital becomes more likely. The chance of a crisis occurring in response to changes in short-term loans is greater after FL than before. Similarly, the chance of a currency crisis occurring following a currency overvaluation is larger after FL than before. In comparison, the likelihood of a banking crisis occurring in response to an overvalued currency remains the same. Finally, the results show that the chance of a currency crisis declines over time, while the chance of a banking crisis increases after FL.     

Social Security Privatization and Market Risk

Under Social Security privatization, workers would be allowed to divert some of the money that currently goes to Social Security into private accounts. This would expose them to market risk, that is, the risk of a substantial drop in equity prices or of a prolonged bear market. This could result in generations of workers with less money than they thought they would have for retirement. Depending on a worker's birth date, if the privatization approach proposed by President Bush's Commission to Strengthen Social Security had been enacted at the start of the Social Security program, the retirement benefits generated from putting 10% of earnings in a private account for 35 years would have ranged from 100% to less than 20% relative to pre‐retirement earnings. The extraordinarily high retirement income generated from the booming 1990s stock market was the equivalent of winning the generational lottery—unlikely to be repeated regularly. Even under these beneficial circumstances, a privatized system could have cost the government more than $1 trillion in today's dollars over the past 3 decades if the government decided to help out those who accumulated too little for retirement. The primary alternative to a government bailout of the Social Security system, older workers working longer, would likely not generate the desired results. Workers wanting to work longer would create labor market pressures typically at times when unemployment is already high.     

Comparative governance: prospects and lessons

This article revisits the country case studies and seeks to answer two questions. What are the strengths and weaknesses of an interpretive approach? What lessons can we draw from our analysis of public sector reform? To assess an interpretive approach, we discuss: the issues raised in identifying beliefs; the meaning of explanation; how to select traditions; the shift from prediction to informed conjecture and policy advice as storytelling. To assess the lessons, we outline our preferred story of public sector reform. We seek to show that an interpretive approach produces insights for students of public administration. We argue it remains feasible to give policy advice to public sector managers by telling them stories and providing rules of thumb (proverbs) to guide managerial practices.     

Confocal microscopy analysis of breech face marks on fired cartridge cases from 10 consecutively manufactured pistol slides

Recent publications from the National Academy of Sciences have called for additional foundational research in the field of firearm and toolmark analysis. We examined test fires from 10 pistol slides with consecutively manufactured breech faces. A total of nine test fires from each pistol slide, for a total of 90 test fired cartridge cases, were compared using confocal microscopy combined with three-dimensional cross-correlation analysis algorithms. A total of 8010 comparisons were performed (720 matches and 7290 nonmatches). The average score for matches was 0.82 with a standard deviation of 0.06. The average score for nonmatches was 0.20 with a standard deviation of 0.03. Additionally, subclass toolmarks were observed on the breech faces, but the presence of subclass was not detected in the correlation analysis. There was no overlap of scores between matching and nonmatching test fires. This provides objective data that support the AFTE (Association of Firearms and Tool Mark Examiners) theory of identification.     

Cabinet Government: An Elusive Ideal?

This article will explore the proposition that cabinet government is dead by examining the different ways in which cabinet government is conceptualized and by suggesting that the lack of precision in the debates has undermined much of the criticism. It will seek to draw the strands of research together in a way that can emphasize how cabinet government has evolved while remaining at the core of government. The article will draw evidence from three countries, Australia, Canada and Britain, in each of which, despite the common heritage, cabinet has evolved in different ways.