Crime or social harm? A dialectical perspective

This paper proposes to examine some of the core philosophical issues to have arisen out of the recent calls to move “beyond criminology”. It will be claimed that the dismissal of crime as a “fictive event” is premature, as crime does indeed have an “ontological reality”. Nevertheless, it will be asserted that the relation between harm and crime is contingent rather than necessary. Accordingly, this paper will argue that there is merit to the claim that we should unify research on social harm through the creation of a new field, a step which would have the added benefit of constructing an alternative venue for crimes of the powerful scholars who wish to explore the destructive practices of states and corporations unconstrained. This paper, therefore, will also offer a dialectical definition of social harm based upon classical Marxist strains of ontological thought.     

Strategic Horizons: Futures Forecasting and the British Intelligence Community

The article deals with the role and benefit added by the use of horizon scanning in intelligence analysis in the UK. It asserts that horizon scanning as a technique, while not entirely akin to the tradecraft of intelligence analysis, has much to contribute to its success. Specifically, is asserts that a horizon scanning function in the JIO and the Cabinet Office should be made permanent, as bureaucratic tumult in the wake of the 2010 SDSR have left the capability un-staffed, though still established. Within the UK intelligence community, such an organization may have positive roles to play in the processes of challenge, the setting of collection priorities, and overall long-term UK intelligence assessment at the national level.     

Participatory development and empowerment: The dangers of localism

Recent discussions in development have moved away from holistic theorisation towards more localised, empirical and inductive approaches. In development practice there has been a parallel move towards local ‘participation’ and ‘empowerment’, which has produced, albeit with very different agendas, a high level of agreement between actors and institutions of the ‘new’ Left and the ‘new’ Right. This paper examines the manifestations of this move in four key political arenas: decentralised service delivery, participatory development, social capital formation and local development, and collective actions for ‘radical democracy’. We argue that, by focusing so heavily on ‘the local’, the see manifestations tend to underplay both local inequalities and power relations as well as national and transnational economic and political forces. Following from this, we advocate a stronger emphasis on the politics of the local, ie on the political use of ‘the local’ by hegemonic and counter-hegemonic interests.     

Dominance of pre-analytical over analytical variation for measurement of methadone and its main metabolite in postmortem femoral blood

On the basis of simultaneously sampled postmortem blood specimens from the left and right femoral veins the pre-analytical variation of methadone measurements was evaluated and compared to the analytical variation. The material consisted of a series of 27 duplicate samples from routine autopsy cases comprising mainly drug addicts. A chiral LC-MS/MS method was used for measurement of the R- and S-enantiomers of methadone and its main metabolite 2-ethyl-1,5-dimethyl-3,3-diphenylpyrrolinium (EDDP). The analytical CV% was determined to be in the range 3-4% for methadone enantiomers and 4-6% for EDDP enantiomers. The total measurement uncertainty (CV(T)) was estimated from the pre-analytical variation (CV(PA)), analytical variation proper (CV(A)), and variation related to calibration (traceability) (CV(Cal)) according to the relationship CV(T) = [CV(2)(PA) + CV(2)(A) + CV(2)(cal)](0.5). Uncertainty related to calibration concerned a component related to the purity of drug reference compound and a contribution from the production of calibrator solutions (CV(Cal)<1%). Pre-analytical sampling variation was estimated from the duplicate measurements of blood samples after subtraction of the analytical component. The pre-analytical variation amounted to a CV% of 19-21% for R- and S-methadone and 30-38% for R- and S-EDDP, i.e. considerably larger than the other components. Due to the squared addition principle, the resulting total uncertainty (CV(T)) became largely identical to the CV(PA), i.e. 19-21% for R- and S-methadone and 31-38% for R- and S-EDDP enantiomers. Accordingly, CV(T) exceeded CV(A) by a factor 5 or more. Dominance of the pre-analytical component of variation may also be likely for other compounds measured in postmortem blood samples. Thus, the width of the 95%-uncertainty interval (+/-2CV(T)) for a postmortem measurement is largely determined by the pre-analytical component of variation. This should be kept in mind when judging on the uncertainty of postmortem measurement results.     

War and Peace in Space and Time: The Role of Democratization

Democratization reduces the risk of war, but uneven transitions toward democracy can increase the probability of war. Using country-level data on democratization and international war from the period 1875–1996, we develop a general additive statistical model reassessing this claim in light of temporal and spatial dependence. We also develop a new geopolitical database of contiguities and demonstrate new statistical techniques for probing the extent of spatial clustering and its impact on the relationship between democratization and war. Our findings reaffirm that democratization generally does reduce the risk of war, but that large swings back and forth between democracy and autocracy can increase war proneness. We show that the historical context of peace diminishes the risk of war, while a regional context plagued by conflict greatly magnifies it.