Estimating voter migration in Canada using generalized maximum entropy

As voters switch political preferences from election to election, understanding the magnitude of voter flows among parties and transitions between voters and non-voters is an essential element of political analysis. As exit polls are uncommon in Canada, voter migration can also be estimated using suitable statistical techniques. Backing out micro-level voter migration probabilities from macro-level election data is a problem of ‘ecological inference.’ This paper uses the method of generalized maximum entropy (GME) to estimate voter migration patterns for the two most recent Canadian federal elections (2004 and 2006) and two most recent provincial elections in British Columbia (2001 and 2005). The estimation results answer important questions about voter behaviour in Canada. These results will be of interest to political scientists, historians, and politicians, as well as econometric practitioners who wish to estimate voter migration.     

Evaluation of haplotype discrimination capacity of 35 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat loci

The haplotype discrimination capacity of the 9 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat (Y-STR) loci comprising the so called minimal haplotype together with additional 26 recently described single-copy Y-STRs was evaluated within 391 males from Germany, The Netherlands, and Turkey. The aim of this study was to identify the minimum number of Y-STRs needed in addition to the recommended 9 minimal haplotype loci or the 11 SWGDAM loci for individualizing male lineages. Highest gene diversities were shown for DYS385 loci, DYS449, DYS481, DYS570, DYS447, DYS576, DYS389-II, and DYS390 (D=0.7518-0.8746). The five Y-STRs DYS447, DYS449, DYS481, DYS570, and DYS576 comprised the smallest set of loci in addition to the previously recommended standard Y-STRs leading to the individualization of all males from each single population group. Complete resolution of the pooled population was achieved by the additional genotyping of two further loci, DYS446 or DYS505 and DYF406S1 or DYS522.     

Economic Discussion of Conflict between Public Education Policies and Common Good Arts in the United States

Arts education in the United States, especially in public schools, has been neglected and its public funding has decreased. This is partly due to the difference in the conception of public education policies and the arts. The theory of economic goods and an analysis of two current education policies demonstrate that public education is treated as a public good that is needed by all people, and therefore funded with tax dollars. Because the arts are common goods that different people value in their own terms, education in the arts is treated as nonessential and funded sporadically in public school settings. Based on the theory of the commons, the author suggests that nonprofit arts organizations are equipped to deal with the common good and diverse nature of the arts and can provide sustainable arts education that fills the gap of arts education in public schools.     

Intergovernmental Cooperation in the Provision of Public Safety: Monitoring Mechanisms Embedded in Interlocal Agreements

This article examines how monitoring mechanisms embedded in interlocal agreements (ILAs) are associated with vertical and horizontal intergovernmental relations. The authors hypothesize that ILAs established by local governments with higher‐level governments are likely to rely on a clearly specified set of rules to establish an administrative structure, whereas ILAs established by local governments with other local governments rely on associational benefits to ensure that policy preferences are aligned across multiple political boundaries. The article examines ILAs established by small town, county, and municipal governments in Denton County, Texas, for the provision of emergency medical, police, and fire services. Findings show that more than half of the ILAs specified a financial reporting system, but an almost equal percentage did not contain features requiring financial records to be available for audit by a third party. Quadratic assignment procedure correlation analysis confirmed the presence of cross‐monitoring mechanisms and showed that the patterns of ILAs tend to cluster around a geographic space.

Practitioner Points

• Monitoring mechanisms embedded in interlocal agreements (ILAs) matter, highlighting the important managerial functions played by frontline officers drafting ILAs.
• The rules embedded in ILAs are important not only for encouraging intergovernmental cooperation but also for reducing the risks associated with contract failures.
• With the increasing number of ILAs, local government officials need to consider various types of ILAs that are suitable to meet jurisdictional interests and policy preferences.

     

Tax rates, tax administration and income tax evasion in Switzerland

This paper contains an empirical analysis of income tax noncompliance in Switzerland, based on the standard model of tax evasion. Noncompliance is found to be positively related to the marginal tax burden and negatively to the probability of audit, though the latter impact is only weak. There is no evidence of a significant deterrent effect of the penalty tax. The extended model reveals that noncompliance is positively related to inflation. Finally, noncompliance is significantly lower when citizens/taxpayers have direct control over government budgets, whereas the opposite holds when there is no such control.