The forecasting potential of complex models

The nature and use of complex models for forecasting and policy simulation are analyzed on theoretical and empirical-performance grounds. The analysis suggests that while the accuracy of complex models in forecasting trends in such fields as economic and energy is, and will remain, undistinguished, complex models' special virtues of preserving counter-intuitive results and representing subsystem interdepedence could be used to better advantage than current practice permits. Suggestions for such improvements, through more diversified model structures, micro-process models in addition to the typical macro models, a mix of mechanically- and judgmentally-operated models, and the modeling of policy response, are reviewed.     

The politics of management in health care: a British perspective

This paper discusses the contribution of organizational political perspectives to a better appreciation of policy implementation problems in health care. The context is the efforts of successive British governments to accord a higher priority to community health and long-stay services. The limited success of these policies owes much to continuing medical control of the philosophy of the organization and agenda, in spite of government responsibility for funding and providing health services. More effective policy implementation depends on a recognition of the "naturalness" of organizational politics, rather than treating them as constraints in an otherwise rational, managerial system.