A contribution to the discussion of probabilities and human hair comparisons

The paper by Gaudette and Keeping on "An Attempt at Determining Probabilities in Human Scalp Hair Comparison" in the Journal of Forensic Sciences (Vol. 19, No. 3, July 1974, pp. 599-606) has provoked considerable controversy. This paper highlights two of the sources of the controversy and shows how the probability, 1/4500, quoted by Gaudette and Keeping should be treated with caution. The necessity of the use of a likelihood ratio statistic is described. It is suggested that the hair examination form resulting from the responses to the questionnaire recently distributed by the authors and also the discussions at Quantico (Proceedings of the International Symposium on Forensic Hair Comparisons, 25-27 June 1985, Quantico VA) should be used to facilitate the collection of the data which will be necessary to enable a likelihood ratio statistic to be estimated effectively.     

Reviews

Rajan Menon, Soviet Power and the Third World. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1986, ix + 261 pp. £18.50.

Georgi Arbatov, Cold War or Detente? The Soviet Viewpoint. London: Zed Books, 1983. xviii + 219 pp. £16.95, $30.00 h/b; £4.95, $8.95 p/b.

Jonathan Steele, World Power: Soviet Foreign Policy under Brezhnev and Andropov. London: Michael Joseph, 1983, xii + 287 pp. £14.95.

Imre Vincze, The International Payments and Monetary System in the Integration of the Socialist Countries, The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff, 1984, ix + 185 pp. £20.50, $32.00.

M. M. Kostecki ed. The Soviet Impact on Commodity Markets, London: Macmillan, 1984, xl + 271 pp. £25.00.

Gerhard Fink ed. East‐West Economic Relations Now and in the Future: Die Ost‐West‐Wirtschaftsbeziehungen heute und morgen, Vienna: Springer‐Verlag, 1985, 100 pp. DM 34,00.

András Köves, The CMEA Countries in the World Economy: Turning Inwards or Turning Outwards, Budapest, Akadémiai Kiadó, 1985, 248 pp. £18.25.

Ger P. van den Berg, The Soviet System of Justice: Figures and Policy, Martinus Nijhoff, Dordrecht, Boston, Lancaster (series Law in Eastern Europe No. 29) 1985, xiii + 374 pp incl appendices, indices and references, £56.95, $71.50.

Eugene Huskey, Russian Lawyers and the Soviet State. The Origins and Development of the Soviet Bar, 1917–1939. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986, xii + 247 pp. £19.00.

David Lane, Labour and Employment in the USSR. Brighton: Wheatsheaf Books (distributed by Harvester Press), 1986, 280 pp. £28.50.

Martin McCauley and Stephen Carter, eds. Leadership and Succession in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China. London: Macmillan, 1986, xiii + 256 pp. £27.50 h/b, £8.95 p/b.

Leslie Holmes, Politics in the Communist World. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986, xi + 457 pp. £25–00 h/b, £9.95 p/b.

Peter Kenez, The Birth of the Propaganda State: Soviet Methods of Mass Mobilization, 1917–1929. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985. xi + 308 pp. £27.50, $39.50 h/b, £9.95, $12.95 p/b.

Joseph J. Collins, The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: a Study in the Use of Force in Soviet Foreign Policy. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1986, xv + 197 pp. £22.50, $31.25.

Leszek Buszynski, Soviet Foreign Policy and Southeast Asia. London: Croom Helm, 1986, 303 pp. £25.00.

William J. Kelly, Hugh L. Shaffer and I. Kenneth Thompson, Energy Research and Development in the USSR: Preparations for the Twenty‐First Century. Durham, North Carolina: Duke University Press, 1986, xvi + 417 pp. £62.50.

Gregory D. Andrusz, Housing and Urban Development in the USSR, London: Macmillan in association with CREES, University of Birmingham, 1985, xix + 354 pp. £30.00.

Jane Ellis, The Russian Orthodox Church: a Contemporary History, London & Sydney: Croom Helm, 1986. 531 pp. £27.50.

Edward Acton, Russia: The Present and the Past, London and New York: Longman, 1986, xiii + 342 pp. £17.50 h/b, £8.95 p/b.

Robert Service, Lenin: A Political Life. Vol. 1. The Strengths of Contradiction. London: Macmillan, 1985, x + 246 pp. £25.00.

Abbott Gleason, Peter Kenez and Richard Stites, eds., Bolshevik Culture. Experiment and Order in the Russian Revolution. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1985, xii + 304 pp., $27.50.

Josef Garlinski, Poland in the Second World War, London: Macmillan, 1985, xxi + 387 pp., £25.00

Andreas Dorpalen, German History in Marxist Perspective. The East German Approach. London: I. B. Tauris & Co., 1985, 542 pp., £24.50.

Walter Parchomenko, Soviet Images of Dissidents and Nonconformists. New York: Praeger, 1986, xv + 251 pp., $33.95.

Soviet Armed Forces Review Annual. Vol. 9 (1984–1985). Edited by David R. Jones. Gulf Breeze, Florida: Academic International Press, 1986. x + 313 pp., $69–50.     

The impact of health maintenance organizations and competition on hospitals in Minneapolis/St. Paul

The Healthcare Educational and Research Foundation (HERF) in Minneapolis undertook a two-year research project to study the effects of health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and competition on the hospital industry in Minneapolis/St. Paul. This article summarizes HERF's major findings surrounding three key questions: (1) do the HMOs in Minneapolis/St. Paul use fewer hospital resources relative to conventional payers?; (2) do recent overall community trends in inpatient use suggest evidence of hospital utilization-reducing effects attributable to HMOs?; and (3) given the highly visible competitive process among Minneapolis/St. Paul providers, do hospital cost and revenue data suggest any evidence of cost-containment? The findings (based on data through 1982) indicate that for comparable patients, Twin Cities HMOs appear to use fewer medical care resources per hospitalized patient. There was, however, no clear evidence of community-wide, utilization-reducing effects directly attributable to the "competitive effect" of HMO introduction and development in the market. In addition, there was no empirical evidence that HMOs (which had enrolled 25 percent of the consumer market by 1982), or other large buyers of inpatient services, have selected hospitals on the basis of price as hypothesized by competition advocates.     

The writings of Sir Bernard Spilsbury: Part I

This is a two-part historical feature, highlighting the rare writings of Sir Bernard Spilsbury, the recognized leader of British forensic medicine in the first half of the 20th century. Parts I and II were compiled from the publications of the Medicolegal Society of Great Britain, where Sir Bernard Spilsbury served as President in 1933. Although his profile was presented previously in this Journal (vol. 2, no. 2, 179-182, 1981), it is felt that much of Sir Bernard Spilsbury's personality comes out in his writings and recordings of his speeches in the Medicolegal Society publications. Part I includes his lecture on "The Medico-Legal Significance of Bruises," presented before the Medicolegal Society in 1938; and a short case report read before the Medicolegal Society in 1924. The subject of the case report was sudden death from inhibition. Part II will contain two papers from the Medicolegal Society publications.     

Practitioner fraud and abuse in medical benefit programs: government regulation and professional white-collar crime

Physicians who defraud and abuse medical benefit programs provide a unique group of lawbreakers for scientific study. They could be considered to epitomize white collar criminals given their exceedingly high socioeconomic status and power as a professional group. Using official reports and documents, as well as interviews with enforcement and program personnel at both state and federal levels, this study examines the problem of physician fraud and abuse in Medicare and Medicaid. Major areas relevant to understanding this phenomenon and its control are presented and policy implications of present knowledge in the area are discussed.