Estimating property tax base elasticity over time: Evidence on the revenue maximizing politician

The Laffer curve analysis suggests a possible policy conflict between short-run revenue maximization and long-run fiscal health. This paper estimates short-run and long-run property tax base elasticity in order to test whether such a conflict exists for the property tax in central cities. A stock adjustment model is used and separate time-series estimates for four New York State central cities lend empirical support to such a conflict. The results show that while disincentive effects associated with property tax rate increases are not strong enough to reduce proeprty tax revenue in the short-run, they are substantial enough to reduce long-run revenue in all but one city. The paper also tests for asymmetric response to property tax rate changes and finds significant results for only one city.     

Local administration in Botswana

Since Botswana became independent in 1966 a steady process of decentralization has been undertaken by a Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) government confident in its own legitimacy and committed officially to a policy of rural development. In 1978 the President appointed a Local Government Structure Commission to test the suitability of the existing structure and to advise on the relationship between the four main institutions at district level–the District Administration, the District Council, the Land Board and the Tribal Administration. In its 1979 Report the Commission recommended that each institution should retain its separate identity, with its powers balanced by those of the others. This article reviews the working of each institution, and concludes that the Commission's recommendation was justified. It notes, however, that the balance between the four institutions has been tilted to an extent in favour of the District Administration. It shows that the District Councils have displayed an improved capacity for plan implementation, but need more skilled technical personnel and a better quality of elected councillor; that the Land Boards are no longer subordinate to the District Councils in administrative matters, but are hampered by a shortage of transport and finance; and that Tribal Administration staff still work under very poor conditions, though their salaries and pensionable status are much improved.     

Chinese migrant women and families in Britain

This article examines the mode of understanding and experiences of family relationships of Chinese migrant women in Britain. In contrast to much existing research work on the patterns and experiences of postwar settlement of unskilled Chinese male labourers in Britain, the focus here is on the life stories of 41 Chinese women with different migration trajectories and varying economic and cultural capital. Their oral testimonies reveal Chinese women's diverse expectations and experiences of migrant family relationships and their different strategies to achieve self-fulfillment both within and outside the confines of the migrant family. For some women, migration brings opportunities for a fulfilling and independent lifestyle. They are successful in negotiating their way around and sometimes out of their initial familial and social position. For others, they bear the disproportionate cost and labour of familial strategies of advancement and remain vulnerable to the most constraining aspects of diasporic existence.     

The Downstream Benefits of Experimentation

The debate about the cost-effectiveness of randomized fieldexperimentation ignores one of the most important potentialuses of experimental data. This article defines and illustrates"downstream" experimental analysis—that is, analysis ofthe indirect effects of experimental interventions. We arguethat downstream analysis may be as valuable as conventionalanalysis, perhaps even more so in the case of laboratory experimentation.     

A method for the longitudinal sectioning of single hair samples

A simple technique is presented for the longitudinal sectioning of hair samples without the need for any embedding medium. The technique applies to single hair samples that are placed in a groove of a particular depth and can either be scraped or cut to the desired level. Planar sections are obtained that reveal the internal structure of the sample and are ideal for the application of surface analytical techniques for the study of internal transverse and longitudinal distributions of xenobiotics.     

Estimation of body exposure to explosion

An ordnance-disposal expert was killed while disposing of a cache of explosives. The likely position of the body was reconstructed by modeling the explosion as an omnidirectional emission of particles from a model of the explosion site and noting the distribution of particles on a model of a human. The applications and limitations of this method in reconstructing the events and correlation with the injuries noted at autopsy are discussed.     

Rethinking the Probative Value of Evidence: Base Rates,Intuitive Profiling,and the “Postdiction” of Behavior

It is argued that American courts may be routinely admitting evidence with little to no probative value and great potential for prejudicial impact. This may be particularly likely with regard to what is essentially intuitive profiling or stereotype related evidence, defined herein as evidence suggesting that the defendant (or other party), or his (her) behavior, fits intuitive profiles (or stereotypes) of the type of person likely to commit the crime or behavior in question. In other words, intuitive profiling evidence is admitted to postdict behavior. Formal empirically based profiling evidence (testimony regarding the fit of a defendant's characteristics or behaviors to formal or scientific profiles of the typical perpetrator of the crime in question for use to prove guilt is inadmissible in American courts. However, we suggest that everyday use of informal intuitive profiles underlies both judicial determinations of probative value diagnosticity, and thus admissibility, of evidence, and jurors' use of the evidence in determining guilt. Demonstrations of the use of base rate information to evaluate the probative value of such intuitive profiling evidence both as evidence of guilt and as evidence of innocence are provided. Demonstrations of both how to evaluate the actual probative value of evidence (when all necessary values are known), and the theoretical limit of its probative value (in circumstances where some values are not known) are provided. It is argued that such evaluations may provide the basis for (1) support of motions to either admit or to exclude evidence, (2) testimony to the jury to help them weigh or interpret evidence, (3) exculpatory profiling (profiling evidence of innocence), (4) pretrial research to establish probative versus prejudicial value of evidence, and (5) sufficiency analyses to determine maximum likelihood of guilt, given multiple items of evidence. Among these, the first two are considered most important, as it can be demonstrated that many profiling characteristics currently admitted in trial (such as evidence of battery to support a murder charge) are not probative of guilt.