The forecasting potential of complex models

The nature and use of complex models for forecasting and policy simulation are analyzed on theoretical and empirical-performance grounds. The analysis suggests that while the accuracy of complex models in forecasting trends in such fields as economic and energy is, and will remain, undistinguished, complex models' special virtues of preserving counter-intuitive results and representing subsystem interdepedence could be used to better advantage than current practice permits. Suggestions for such improvements, through more diversified model structures, micro-process models in addition to the typical macro models, a mix of mechanically- and judgmentally-operated models, and the modeling of policy response, are reviewed.     

Genetic markers in human bone: I. Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) analysis.

Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) was isolated from a number of spongy and compact human bone tissue specimens, and the yield was estimated on a "per milligram of starting tissue" basis. DNA was, in addition, isolated from a number of corresponding blood and bone tissue specimens. Spectrophotofluorometry and ethidium bromide visualization on minigels were used to estimate the quantity and degree of degradation of DNA. The DNA from several blood-bone pairs is shown to give concordant restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) typing results by two different typing protocols with five different single-locus probes. DNA from several additional blood-bone pairs is shown to give concordant results for human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-DQ alpha phenotypes following polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and hybridization to specific allele-specific oligonucleotide (ASO) probes, and for the variable numbers of tandem repeats (VNTR) length polymorphisms 3' to the human apolipoprotein B (APOB) gene following PCR amplification with specific primers and analysis of the products by electrophoresis and ethidium bromide visualization.     

Social science and the Courts

Social scientists have increasingly become involved in the submission of amicus curiae or friend of the court briefs in legal cases being decided by state and federal courts. This increase has triggered considerable debate about the use of briefs to communicate relevant social science research. This article evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of various methods of summarizing social science research for the courts. It also reviews the procedures for submitting briefs developed by the American Psychology-Law Society which, in collaboration with the American Psychological Association, has submitted its first brief inMaryland v. Craig, a case recently decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.The authors wish to thank James Ogloff, Kathy Roesch, and Claudia Worrell for their comments on an earlier draft