Migration,rank-size distribution,and economic development: The case of Mexico

This is an examination of whether city size is truly an independent variable when the relationships between city size and certain economic and social phenomena are considered. A new hypothesis is presented that postulates that relative or systemic city size is an independent variable that affects urban growth patterns through varying, non-optimum migration flows. The hypothesis is tested using official Mexican data for the period 1960 to 1970.     

The failure of local government modernization in Britain: a critique of functionalism

Abstract. Modernizing local government systems to meet changing needs and urbanization is common to most Western democracies. This article examines the British local government modernization which, it argues, placed far too much emphasis on improving the system's functional capacity and too little to improving its democratic quality. The overemphasis on functionalism has been most decisive in relation to creating wider areas for planning and transportation and creating more populous local units so as to exploit economies of scale. The result is a system with some of the largest local units among Western democracies. The new system is also very unpopular. Yet, even when judged in functional terms it has serious weaknesses especially in regard to its failure to recognize the different functional needs of urban and rural areas. The article makes a strong plea for the restoration of democratic as opposed to functional criteria in the design of local government systems and notes the contribution that public choice theory can make to local government reorganization by its insistence on distribution efficiency as opposed to production efficiency. Sommaire. La modemisation des systèmes de gouvemement local pour répondre à de nouveaux besoins et aux exignences de l'urbanisation est commune à la plupart des démocraties occidentales. L'auteur de cet article étudie la modemisation du gouvernement local britannique qui, à son avis, a trop porté sur l'amélioration de la capacité fonctionnelle du système et pas assez sur sa qualité démocratique. La trop grande importance accordée au fonctionnel a joué un rôle particulièrement décisif en créant de grandes régions pour la planification et le transport et des unités locales à très forte densité de population de façon à profiter des économies d'échelle. Le résultat, c'est un système qui compte certaines des unités démographiques les plus fortes dans les démocraties occidentales. Ce nouveau système est aussi très impopulaire. Etmême lorsqu'on le juge du point de vue fonctionnel, il accuse une très grave faiblesse en ne distinguant pas entre les besoins fonctionnels différents des régions urbaines et rurales. L'auteur plaide en faveur de la restauration de critères démocratiques plutôt que fonctionnels pour la conception de systèmes de gouvemement local et il indique la contribution que pourrait apporter la théorie du choix public à la réorganisation du gouvernement local grâce à son insistance sur l'efficacité de la distribution plutôt que sur l'efficacité de la production.     

The forecasting potential of complex models

The nature and use of complex models for forecasting and policy simulation are analyzed on theoretical and empirical-performance grounds. The analysis suggests that while the accuracy of complex models in forecasting trends in such fields as economic and energy is, and will remain, undistinguished, complex models' special virtues of preserving counter-intuitive results and representing subsystem interdepedence could be used to better advantage than current practice permits. Suggestions for such improvements, through more diversified model structures, micro-process models in addition to the typical macro models, a mix of mechanically- and judgmentally-operated models, and the modeling of policy response, are reviewed.