Predictive Efficacy and the Preventive Detention of Dangerous Sexual Offenders: Contributions from Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Theory

Behavioral scientists are regularly summoned by the legal system to make predictions about the likelihood of future dangerous behavior (i.e., violence prediction/risk assessment). In recent years, such efforts have been subjected to considerable scrutiny as, despite the evolution of risk assessment instruments, social scientists have yet to demonstrate the ability to predict violence with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Yet concerns with predictive efficacy may be rooted in the limitations of prediction itself. Nonlinear dynamical systems theory (i.e., chaos theory) and quantum physics jointly paint a picture of human behavior as fundamentally unpredictable; in their light, we are asked to question whether future violence can ever be predicted with a tolerable level of error. In this article, I provisionally explore this very issue, particularly as it appears in the context of decisions concerning the disposition of criminal sexual offenders.     

Dodging Dodd‐Frank: Excessive Speculation,Commodities Markets,and the Burden of Proof

Inspired by the wave of regulatory rulemaking, which followed the 2008 financial crisis and the passage of the Dodd‐Frank Act, this article examines the efforts of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission to implement one such rule: Rule 76 FR 4752. Born of concerns with the impact of financial speculators on commodities prices, the rule calls for the expanded use of position limits to control “excessive speculation” in US commodities markets. In documenting the political and legal life of this rule from its roots in policy reports through to its suspension by a federal judge, the article explores the place of “evidence” in the rulemaking process. Particular attention is devoted to the growing evidentiary burden placed on financial regulators who are expected to frame market problems in terms of quantitative, price‐based forms of harm. In the case of position limits, this has involved statistical analyses of the causal connections between excessive speculation and commodities prices and the use of a single statistical test: Granger causality. By examining the parameters and limitations of this test, the article offers a valuable window into the unique challenges of financial regulation and their roots in questions of knowledge, evidence, and proof.     

The business of bribery: Globalization, economic liberalization, and the “problem” of corruption

This paper is intended as a critical response to the emerging consensus within both academic and policy literatures that we are currently facing an epidemic of corruption which threatens to undermine the stability of economic and political development on both a national and global scale, and which requires both immediate and wide-ranging policy interventions. Based on a review of the publications and policy statements of the leading anti-corruption crusaders — namely the OECD, the IMF, and the World Bank — it will be argued that the recent concern with corruption is attributable, not to any substantive increase incorrupt practices, but rather, to the re-framing of corruption in light of broader shifts and transformations within the global economy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Examining the Criminal History and Future Offending of Child Pornography Offenders: An Extended Prospective Follow-up Study

We examined police occurrence and criminal records data for a sample of 201 registered male child pornography offenders originally reported by Seto and Eke (Sex Abus J Res Treat 17:201–210, 2005), extending the average follow-up time for this sample to 5.9 years. In addition, we obtained the same data for another 340 offenders, increasing our full sample to 541 men, with a total average follow-up of 4.1 years. In the extended follow-up of the original sample, 34% of offenders had new charges for any type of reoffense, with 6% charged with a contact sexual offense against a child and an additional 3% charged with historical contact sex offenses (i.e., previously undetected offenses). For the full sample, there was a 32% any recidivism rate; 4% of offenders were charged with new contact sex offences, an additional 2% of offenders were charged with historical contact sex offenses and 7% of offenders were charged with a new child pornography offense. Predictors of new violent (including sexual contact) offending were prior offense history, including violent history, and younger offender age. Approximately a quarter of the sample was sanctioned for a failure on conditional release; in half of these failures, the offenders were in contact with children or used the internet, often to access pornography again.     

Latent fingermark visualisation using reduced-pressure sublimation of copper phthalocyanine

The sublimation of copper phthalocyanine (CuPc) at a temperature of 400°C under conditions of reduced pressure is shown to be an effective method of developing latent fingermarks on certain types of surface. Preliminary experiments on a limited selection of surfaces including paper, plastic and ceramic tiles were carried out using a simple apparatus consisting of a vacuum desiccator and a resistive heater. CuPc from the gas phase condenses preferentially on fingermark deposits, revealing deep blue patterns with excellent ridge detail clarity on light coloured surfaces. The technique is shown to be most effective on porous surfaces such as paper, but relatively ineffective on non-porous ceramic and plastic surfaces.     

Intimate violence among underrepresented groups on a college campus

Rape, sexual violence, psychological violence, and physical violence, among college students have been a concern. Lifetime events are often studied but not violence that specifically transpires while one is in college. Underrepresented groups such as Deaf and Hard of Hearing students, students who are gay, lesbian, and bisexual, and students who are members of racial and ethnic minorities have not been studied as extensively as White, heterosexual females. The authors used several measures to investigate the incidence of sexual violence, physical and psychological abuse among underrepresented groups in a random sample of 1,028 college students at a private, northeastern, technological campus in upstate New York, United States and analyzed victimization rates by gender, race/ethnicity, auditory status, and sexual orientation. Binary logistic regression analyses found that statistically significant differences are likely to exist between members of underrepresented groups and groups in the majority. The study found statistically significant associations between Deaf and Hard of Hearing students and students who were gay, lesbian, bisexual, or other sexual orientation with psychological abuse and physical abuse. Racial and ethnic minorities and gay, lesbian, bisexual, and other sexual orientation students were significantly more at risk for sexual abuse. Gay, lesbian, bisexual, and other sexual orientation students, students who were members of a racial or ethnic minority, and female students were significantly more likely to be raped. Female heterosexual students were more likely to be the victim of an attempted rape. Suggestions for further research and policy implications are provided.     

Gender differences in risk for intimate partner violence among South African adults

Despite a high prevalence of intimate partner violence in South Africa, few epidemiological studies have assessed individual risk factors and differential vulnerability by gender. This study seeks to analyze gender differences in risk for intimate partner violence victimization and perpetration according to childhood and adult risk factors in a national sample of South African men and women. Using data from the cross-sectional, nationally representative South Africa Stress and Health Study, the authors examine data from 1,715 currently married or cohabiting adults on reporting of intimate partner violence. Our analysis include (a) demographic factors, (b) early life risk factors (including exposure to childhood physical abuse, witnessing parental violence, parental closeness, and early onset DSM-IV disorders), and (c) adult risk factors (including experiencing the death of a child and episodes of DSM-IV disorders after age 20). Although prevalence rates of intimate partner violence are high among both genders, women are significantly more likely than men to report being victimized (29.3% vs. 20.9%). Rates of perpetrating violence are similar for women and men (25.2% and 26.5%, respectively). Men are more likely to report predictive factors for perpetration, whereas women are more likely to report predictors for victimization. Common risk factors among men and women reporting perpetration include exposure to childhood physical abuse, witnessing parental violence, and adult onset alcohol abuse/dependence. However, risk factors in male perpetrators are more likely to include cohabitation, low income, and early and adult-onset mood disorders, whereas risk factors in female perpetrators include low educational attainment and early onset alcohol abuse/dependence. The single common risk factor for male and female victims of partner violence is witnessing parental violence. Additional risk factors for male victims are low income and lack of closeness to a primary female caregiver, whereas additional risk factors for female victims are low educational attainment, childhood physical abuse, and adult onset alcohol abuse/dependence and intermittent explosive disorder. Intimate partner violence is a significant public health issue in South Africa, strongly linked to intergenerational cycling of violence and risk exposure across the life course. These findings indicate that gender differences in risk and common predictive factors, such as alcohol abuse and exposure to childhood violence, should inform the design of future violence-prevention programs and policies.