Repression,co-optation and insurgency: Pakistan’s FATA,Southern Thailand and Papua,Indonesia

Scholars have long identified state repression as playing a key role in the onset of insurgency. Violence by security forces increases anger against the state and assists with rebel recruitment. Yet scholars have also recognised that repression does not always lead to rebellion: in some cases it successfully quashes movements before they have begun. This study advances an argument for when and why repression leads to insurgency and sometimes does not. We contend that violence by state security forces can fail to trigger rebellion if local elites within the repressed community are simultaneously co-opted with political and economic opportunities. When elites are satisfied with local autonomy and patronage they deprive the dissident movement of local leadership and coordination. When the state uses repression against a community and at the same time abandons this mutually beneficial relationship, the insurgency has both the leadership and grassroots support it requires. We illustrate our argument by examining three cases of state violence in Asia. In two of our cases, Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Southern Thailand, repression led directly to insurgency. In the third, Papua in Indonesia, ongoing co-optation of local elites has left the movement factionalised and weak.     

Democracy and the demographic transition

This article addresses the role of demographic factors in contributing to the emergence of democracy. It maintains that, other things being equal, progress in the demographic transition promotes democratization. The argument is developed with reference to the effects of interrelated changes in mortality, natural increase (i.e. population growth), fertility, and population age structure. Suggestions are also made with respect to how demographic and democratic trends should be gauged. An analysis of data for the period 1970–2005 for 77 countries that were initially non-democratic provides substantial support for the argument. Some implications are discussed, as are future trends in democratization from a demographer’s perspective.     

Disproportionality and Disparities among Sexual Minority Youth in Custody

Research indicates that sexual minority youth are disproportionately criminalized in the U.S. and subjected to abusive treatment while in correctional facilities. However, the scope and extent of disparities based on sexual orientation remains largely overlooked in the juvenile justice literature. This study, based on a nationally representative federal agency survey conducted in 2012 (N?=?8785; 9.9% girls), reveals that 39.4% of girls and 3.2% of boys in juvenile correctional facilities identified as lesbian, gay, or bisexual. These youth, particularly gay and bisexual boys, report higher rates of sexual victimization compared to their heterosexual peers. Sexual minority youth, defined as both lesbian, gay, and bisexual identified youth as well as youth who identified as straight and reported some same-sex attraction, were also 2–3 times more likely than heterosexual youth to report prior episodes of detention lasting a year or more. Implications for future research and public policy are discussed.     

The bitter end: apocalypse and conspiracy in white nationalist responses to the Islamic State attacks in Paris

Wilson's article examines how apocalyptic thinking converges with the use of conspiracy theory in white nationalist world-views at a time of crisis. Apocalyptic thinking is, typically, a religious response to secular threats to the faith community that prophesize, or are attendant on, the End. These millenarian outlooks provide communities in crisis a promise of confirmation of the object of their faith, the vanquishing of enemies and, crucially, continuity for the community in a better world to come. In the latter half of the twentieth century and the early years of the twenty-first, apocalypticism and conspiracy theory have tended to coincide. The tendency towards a binary distinction between terms of absolute good and absolute evil, and the revelation of secrets relating to human destiny through prophesy or ‘truth-seeking’ provide a broad transposability between the two interpretative strategies. An increasing amalgamation of political paranoia and eschatology have given rise to what has been termed ‘conspirituality’. Much recent white nationalist rhetoric can be understood as emerging from this discursive position, and Wilson's analysis will demonstrate how one white nationalist community drew on conspiratorial apocalypticism in its response to the multiple attacks by Islamic State in Paris on 13–14 November 2015.     

Taxing the Informal Economy: The Current State of Knowledge and Agendas for Future Research

Abstract

This paper reviews the literature on taxation of the informal economy, taking stock of key debates and drawing attention to recent innovations. Conventionally, the debate on whether to tax has frequently focused on the limited revenue potential, high cost of collection, and potentially adverse impact on small firms. Recent arguments have increasingly emphasised the more indirect benefits of informal taxation in relation to economic growth, broader tax compliance, and governance. More research is needed, we argue, into the relevant costs and benefits for all, including quasi-voluntary compliance, political and administrative incentives for reform, and citizen-state bargaining over taxation.     

Consideration Sets and Political Choices: A Heterogeneous Model of Vote Choice and Sub-national Party Strength

This paper brings to political science a new decision-making model based on research in consumer behavior. Individuals do not necessarily make choices from the universe of alternatives; rather, they choose from a “consideration set,” a notion derived from both utility maximization and information processing theories. Here I apply a model of heterogeneous consideration sets to voting in the 2000 Mexican national election. I argue that the sub-national variation in the strength of Mexican parties leads to heterogeneous consideration sets, resulting in individuals with identical issue preferences and personal attributes making different voting decisions. Application of this model provides both interesting substantive conclusions about vote choice in Mexico and a more general theoretical innovation regarding vote choice.

弱关系、强关系:墨西哥移民中的网络原则

移民过程一般是通过亲属网络和社会网络来策划安排的,原来居住于同一社区的移民在目的地的扩散与集聚,基本遵循五条有关移民网络及其动力学的相关原则:第一,网络是多区域性的。第二,移民们在移入目的地找到工作的工作地点构成了移民在当地的落脚点。第三,通向新的目的地的途径常常是通过"弱关系的力量"而得到的。第四,紧密网络和松散的、弱关系的或熟人的网络均构成其成员的"社会资本"。第五,移民在工作地点和工作类型的地理扩散与集聚受紧密关系网络成员(特别是近亲属)招工的影响。