Predictive Policing as a New Tool for Law Enforcement? Recent Developments and Challenges

Decision-making processes are increasingly based on intelligence gained from ‘big data’, i.e., extensive but complex datasets. This evolution of analyzing complex data using methods aimed at prediction is also emerging within the field of quantitative criminology. In the context of crime analysis, the large amount of crime data available can be considered an example of big data, which could inform us about current and upcoming crime trends and patterns. A recent development in the analysis of this kind of data is predictive policing, which uses advanced statistical methods to make the most of these data to gain useable new insights and information, allowing police services to predict and anticipate future crime events. This article presents the results of a literature review, supplemented with key informant interviews, to give insight into what predictive policing is, how it can be used and implemented to anticipate crime, and what is known about its effectiveness. It also gives an overview of the currently known applications of predictive policing and their main characteristics.     

In a Violent World a Just World Makes Sense: The Case of “Senseless Violence” in The Netherlands

Recent violent incidents in The Netherlands caused nationwide debates about their purported senselessness. Building on Lerner's Just World Theory (Lerner, 1980, The Belief in a Just World. A Fundamental Delusion, Plenum Press, New York), the present experiment sought to delineate the circumstances under which violence is perceived as senseless by outside observers. Participants were more likely to perceive an act of violence as senseless and to identify with the victim when there was no opportunity to blame the victim and when the victim was uninvolved with the perpetrator. These findings suggest that acts of violence are perceived as senseless when attributional strategies fail to uphold observers' belief in a just world.     

Informal payments for health care services – Corruption or gratitude? A study on public attitudes,perceptions and opinions in six Central and Eastern European countries

In this study we aim to compare the public perceptions towards informal patient payments in six Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Ukraine). Overall, around 35–60% of the general public in each country has ever made informal payments, though informal cash payments are perceived negatively, mostly as corruption. In-kind gifts are often seen as a token of gratitude. However, significant differences among countries are observed. Despite the public support for the eradication of informal payments, there are population groups who favor their existence and this should be taken into account in policy-making.     

An Application of Rating Conjoint Analysis to Study the Importance of Quality-, Access- and Price-attributes to Health Care Consumers

Outside the health care sector, consumer preferences have been effectively studied using rating and ranking conjoint techniques. In the health care sector this technique has received less attention than its choice-based variant. Applications of rating and ranking method to health care issues are few. This paper presents an application of rating conjoint analysis to study the importance of quality, access and price to the health care consumers in Bulgaria. The paper first describes the rating conjoint method and its distinctive features compared to the choice-based and the ranking approach. The method is illustrated by the rating conjoint design applied in the study. Next, the impact of different quality-, access- and price-levels on the rating of physician profiles is analysed and the differences between the socio-demographic groups are examined. The results suggest that similar to other countries, the quality of care is a highly valued characteristic in Bulgaria, whereas access is perceived as less important. The considerable importance of patient payments further implies that Bulgarians are responsive to prices in the health care sector, especially the elderly, the village dwellers and the lowest income groups. The relevance of the results with regards to health policy and planning, as well as with regards to the methodology of rating conjoint analysis is discussed at the end of the paper.     

Learning from a leprosy project in Indonesia: making mindsets explicit for stigma reduction

International attention for disability recognises that it plays an important role in persistent poverty. Leprosy can cause preventable disability. Stigma associated with leprosy often has greater implications for people affected than physical impairments. The Stigma Assessment and Reduction of Impact (SARI) project in Indonesia employs an action research methodology to develop stigma reduction interventions. By exploring the different mindsets of the stakeholders in the reconnaissance phase of the project, the project identified differences in aspirations, attitudes to research, and conflicting intrinsic models of disability. The differences in mindsets are not symptoms of failure but, rather, should be actively sought out.     

The systemic error in the vertical component of handgun bullet trajectory reconstructions

Establishing the path or trajectory of a fired bullet is an often recurring part of shooting incident reconstruction. The current study describes how gravitational pull causes a systemic error on the vertical component of a trajectory reconstruction. Bullet drop, drop angle, and vertical offset are explained and calculated for 10 different handgun/ammunition combinations over a range of distances up to 100 m. The presented results are intended to provide forensic firearm examiners with a reference frame for the magnitude of error introduced on handgun bullet trajectory reconstructions over distance. Threshold values of 20 and 30 m are proposed as conservative distances up to where bullet trajectories can be modeled as straight lines with subsonic/transonic handgun bullets and with supersonic handgun bullets respectively. Both the bullet drop and vertical offset will be below 5 cm at these distances for those categories. The drop angle will be below 0.3°.