Interest in political campaigns: The influence of question order and electoral context

A split-ballot experiment shows that, when people are asked how interested they are in following political campaigns, their response depends not only on the order in which the question is asked, but also on the broader electoral context in which it is posed. When asked how interested they were in following the political campaigns immediatelyafter a question about whether or not they voted in the (1982) election, people were more likely to think they were interested in the campaign, especially if they claimed to have voted, than if they were asked about it immediatelybefore the question on whether or not they voted. This order effect, however, appears to depend onwhen the questions are asked. If asked within a few weeks after the election, there is little or no order effect. But later, as the memory of the campaign fades, the order of the questions makes a sizable difference in the results. This order effect also seems to be more pronounced among better-educated respondents, suggesting that they are more likely to feel pressured by a social norm to vote and to express an interest in political affairs, not only in real life, but in the survey interview as well. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the implications for the design of the interview schedule used in the American National Election Studies.The research reported in this paper was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (SES81-11404).     

Stuck in the Middle: Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry,the U.S.-China Tech Fight,and Cross-Strait Stability

The Trump administration has worked to restrict the People's Republic of China's ability to manufacture and acquire semiconductor chips since 2018. Caught in the crossfire of this burgeoning tech war is Taiwan, which is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world's largest semiconductor chip manufacturer. With the United States banning companies that use U.S. technology in their chip manufacturing process from doing business with Huawei, TSMC can no longer do business with the Chinese tech company, one of its most important clients. Until the Trump administration announced the license restriction on Huawei, TSMC had managed to walk the fine line of doing business with both China and the United States, without riling either. This article argues that the TSMC example is indicative of how great power competition between the two countries will play out for the foreseeable future. TSMC has announced that it will build a new factory in Arizona as it faces Chinese firms poaching its employees and Chinese actors hacking its systems and code for trade secrets—all actions demonstrating how great power competition will play out for tech dominance. Avoiding direct live-fire conflict, China and the United States will work to restrict the other's actions and development by forcing important tech companies, such as TSMC, into picking a side.     

清代中国海疆经略对构建周边海上安全秩序的启示

作为中国古代王朝国家构建海疆经略体系的顶峰,清朝将“天下”安全思想运用到海疆经略具体实践之中,对包括内洋、外洋、大洋和海上周边关系在内的多重要素进行总体考量,建立起较为成型、完备的海疆安全治理体系。具体表现为：一是按照内洋、外洋和大洋三部进行海域管理。对内洋和外洋,通过行政建制和水师巡查,实现日常的、具体的海上管辖;对于大洋,则将陆地边疆治理中的“以不治治之”原则应用到海上。二是以制度建设保障各地水师开展海上巡视、缉盗、护送、救助等任务,有效维护了东亚海上的安全秩序。三是以宗藩制度经营与周边海上藩属国之间的政治、安全关系,实现了东亚海上的长期和平与稳定。晚清政府以主权原则强化对海岛、海域的管理,取得了重要进展,但在“立约保藩”的外部层面却遭遇失败。探讨清代海疆安全体系构建的历史经验和教训,对于当前中国推动构建周边海上安全秩序,具有历史中国观、总体安全观和国家主体观三方面的重要启示。