Estimating Size of Drug Users in Macau: an Open Population Capture-Recapture Model with Data Augmentation Using Public Registration Data

Successful drug intervention policies rely on timely assessment of size of drug users and close monitoring of trend regarding drug abuse. Taking advantage of data collected by the Central Registration System for Drug Abusers of Macau (CRSDAM), this study applied open population capture-recapture models with data augmentation techniques to estimate the size of drug users and to identify influential factors on capture and survival probabilities from 2009 to 2014. In particular, the data augmentation technique was used to address missing data issues. The estimated size of drug users has been slowly declining from 2442 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2042–2914) in 2009 to 807 (95% BCI 654–1000) in 2014 with a small fluctuation of 2251 (95% BIC 1950–2599) in 2011, and the estimated cumulative size of drug users is 6199 (95% BCI 5651–6873), which is correspondent to a prevalence rate of 1.20% of the current population aged 15 to 54. Although the estimated sizes of total, narcotic, and other drug users were declining, the size of stimulant users might be increasing. People who used narcotics as their first drug and who were reported by governmental agencies were more likely to stay in the registration system, while those who used needle injection were less likely to stay. Governmental agencies, higher education, and using needle injection were negatively associated with the probability of capture over time, while using narcotics as the first drug was positively associated with it.     

“十二五”规划与澳门产业政策对接的法治思考

国家规划从原先不将港澳经济社会发展纳入其中,到对港澳经济社会发展的方向和定位作出原则性规定,反映了“一国两制”实践的深化.“十二五”规划支持澳门建设世界旅游休闲中心,推动澳门经济适度多元化,这是“一国”层面上的筹划;但就“两制”而言,中央与澳门并不存在直接的监管与被监管关系,所以国家规划在澳门特区无法直接转化为细则性的政策法规或措施.“十二五”规划在澳门的落实,有赖于澳门与国家在政治上的契合,在此基础上澳门特区政府的能动施政,与内地地方和中央部委的协商、合作,以及中央政府必要时的统筹协调.为此也需要澳门特区政府积极引导,通过各方互动在澳门夯实相关民意基础.