Favorites and underdogs: Strategic behavior in an experimental contest

Conflicts between favorites and underdogs are everyday phenomena. We examine their strategic behavior in an experimental contest, and find behavior partially consistent with predictions. Favorites given a first-mover advantage do overcommit effort relative to Nash. Underdogs often select the best response effort level given the favorite's move. Overall dissipation of the prize was significantly higher with the strategic commitment relative to Nash. qu]Life is not so mathematically idiotic that it allows only the big to eat the small, for it happens just as often that the bee kills the lion, or at least drives it mad.     

Taiwan’s 1991 second national assembly election

The author assesses Taiwan’s fifth competitive national election and its first ever nonsupplementary election. The electorate picked a “new” National Assembly, absent those elected on the mainland before 1949 or later appointed to fill vacancies. The election was a major victory for the ruling Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT) affording it perhaps its first real mandate — a product of the KMT’s good reputation for engineering economic development and in recent years political development as well (since it was largely responsible for getting the “elder parliamentarians” to retire). In addition, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party made a mistake by putting Taiwan independence into the platform. Two other parties contested the election but failed to win a significant number of votes. The new National Assembly will amend the nation’s Constitution which will make some important changes in Taiwan’s polity.     

The politics and economics of pork barrel spending: The case of federal financing of water resources development

This paper empirically investigates the economic and political factors that have influenced annual Corps of Engineers water resource spending. Despite the common view that “pork barrel” spending is economically unjustified and purely politically motivated, economic factors have been important in determining water resource spending. From 1865–1920, economic development and industrialization increase spending, and from 1921–1988, spending appears to be counter-cyclical. There is also evidence that majority parties control spending levels in the post-Civil war period, while in recent times, legislators act under a norm of “constrained universalism” and are influenced by the costs to their constituents of increased spending.     

PREDICTING STATE ABORTION LEGISLATION FROM U.S. SENATE VOTES: THE EFFECTS OF APPARENT IDEOLOGICAL SHIRKING

The recent Supreme Court decision in Webster v. Reproductive Health Services giving more discretion to states to regulate abortion has led to speculation concerning which states might move to limit abortions. Medoff (1989) attempts to predict how state legislatures might vote on state-level abortion legislation by examining the 1983 Senate vote on the Hatch/Eagleton Amendment. We expand upon Medoff's analysis by incor- porating recent developments in agency theory as it applies to the political agents (i.e., Senators) in the empirical model. The results demonstrate that accounting for Senatorial "shirking" and state ideology substantially im- proves the predictive ability of the model for the Senate abortion vote. The predicted votes of the state's Senators, after eliminating the effects of apparent Senatorial shirking, are used to infer the likelihood of state-level legislation substantially restricting abortion. We compare these results to a base model that ignores the issue of shirking and find increased predict- ability and several differing results.     

Disposable income,unemployment, inflation and state spending in a dynamic political-economic model

This paper formulates a medium-term macroeconomic model of disposable income, unemployment, inflation and state spending, proposes a theory of qualitative choice to explain electoral popularity in terms of these variables and develops three approaches to the formulation of political-economic policy. The first approach is static, sets the tax rate to reconcile the interests of various pressure groups and yields a political trade-off between the private and public sector. The second approach relies on maximizing the probability of winning the next election and gives rise to a political business cycle unless the electorate votes strategically. The implications of crowding out of private investment under alternative monetary rules, autonomous behaviour of the state bureaucracy and tax-indexation for the political business cycle are also examined. The third approach analyzes the objective of maximizing the uninterrupted length in office. It yields a short-run political cycle superimposed on a longer cycle.     

Compromise formation in social conflicts: The influence of age,issue, and interpersonal context

Adolescents' understanding of societal conflict and of compromise resolution in the context of peer and authority relations was investigated. Six conflict stories were prepared for three social issues. Each issue included two similar stories that were counterbalanced for presentation in peer or authority context. The adolescents—ages 11, 13, 15, and 17—were asked to develop dialogues by continuing conversations from the stories with the aim of resolving the conflict. Responses were categorized on a 3-point scale: (1) noncompromise, (2) routine compromise, and (3) constructive compromise. In addition, one moral and one political dilemma were presented in order to relate conflict resolution to moral and political development. The major findings were an increase in frequency of constructive compromise with age and in peer vs authority context. Further, both moral and political development were significantly related to conflict resolution scores in peer but not in authority context. Results corroborate an interpretation that considers peer communicative relations of mutual respect and cooperation as a primary path to mature stages of social reasoning.Received Ph.D. in 1986 from Catholic University of America. Research interests include conflict resolution, adolescent sexuality, and substance abuse.Received Ph.D. in 1960 from Portland University. Research interests include Development of knowledge.