美国国家安全战略视阈下的中美关系50年

自1972年中美关系“破冰”以来,美国国家安全战略视阈之内的中美关系经历了1972—1989年、1989—2017年以及2017年之后三个阶段。在这三个阶段中,制衡、塑造与争胜先后成为美国对华战略的逻辑核心。在第一阶段,美国对华的国家安全战略逻辑是“借重以制衡”,即借助中国来平衡苏联,中国在20世纪80年代一度被美国视为“友好的非盟国”。在持续时间最长的第二阶段,美国的国家安全战略逻辑是通过“接触以塑造”,希望塑造中国的政治经济模式以及对外行为方式。在20世纪90年代末期中国一度被美国视为潜在的战略伙伴。在2017年以来的第三阶段,美国试图通过“竞争以制胜”,防止中国的发展超越美国,美国国家安全战略视阈内的中国以及中美关系全面转向消极。50年来,中美关系经历过两次转向和重构,目前第二次转向和重构仍在进行中。过去50年,中美关系总是关系到美国全局性国家安全利益的重大问题;美国国家安全战略中的涉华部分超越党派之争,有着较强的一致性和连贯性,很多议题和提法都长期存在,或者早有伏笔。在美国国家安全战略中,涉华议题的内容越来越多,也越来越丰富;中美关系的合作面和竞争面都有明显增长,但竞争面的比重大幅上升。     

Thoughtfully Reflective Decision Making and the Accumulation of Capital: Bringing Choice Back In

In this paper we relate a particular type of decision making, thoughtfully reflective decision making (TRDM) in adolescence, to successful and unsuccessful life outcomes in young adulthood. Those who are thoughtfully reflective in their decision making are more likely to consider possible alternative routes to goal attainment, weigh the costs and benefits of those alternatives, and critically revisit the decision once made to examine what went well and what went wrong. We also argue that what mediates the effect of TRDM on later life outcomes is the accumulation of capital. Those who use better decision making practices are more likely to recognize the resources provided by and make the necessary investments to accumulate human, social and cultural capital. These notions are theoretically linked to conceptions of criminal offenders as both rational planners and decision makers and as fully human agents. Using data from the Add Health data set, our hypotheses are largely confirmed. Those who are higher in TRDM as adolescents were more likely to have enrolled in or graduated from college, to be in better physical health, are more involved in civic and community affairs, less likely to commit criminal acts, use illegal drugs and be involved in heavy drinking as adults. TRDM is also positively related to the accumulation of human, social and cultural capital. Finally, a substantial part of the effect of TRDM on young adult outcomes was mediated by capital accumulation. The implications of these findings for future theory and research are discussed.     

The Centrality of Theory in Modern Day Crime Prevention: Developments,Challenges, and Opportunities

Theory matters in crime prevention. Indeed, but this is hardly the full story. Crime prevention is oftentimes viewed as atheoretical—not grounded in the etiology of crime and offending. Reasons abound for this view, and the recent interest in an evidence-based approach to policy-making has been at the forefront. This article reviews the role that theory plays in modern day crime prevention, with a special focus on the three main crime prevention strategies: developmental, community, and situational. The review identifies a number of key challenges and opportunities for making theory more central to crime prevention. It suggests that the classification system employed in situational crime prevention has allowed for a more explicit connection between sound theory and prevention techniques, and may provide important lessons for developmental and community crime prevention.     

Pedagogy of the Logic Model: Teaching Undergraduates to Work Together to Change Their Communities

Undergraduate community psychology courses can empower students to address challenging problems in their local communities. Creating a logic model is an experiential way to learn course concepts by “doing.” Throughout the semester, students work with peers to define a problem, develop an intervention, and plan an evaluation focused on an issue of concern to them. This report provides an overview of how to organize a community psychology course around the creation of a logic model in order for students to develop this applied skill. Two undergraduate student authors report on their experience with the logic model assignment, describing the community problem they chose to address, what they learned from the assignment, what they found challenging, and what they are doing now in their communities based on what they learned.     

Orphan Living Situations in Malawi: A Comparison of Orphanages and Foster Homes

Orphans have become an increasingly large percentage of the population in Sub‐Saharan Africa due to the AIDS epidemic. Debate ensues about more supportive living situations for these youth, with most research supporting foster homes over orphanages. This article compares these two situations in the country of Malawi, considering how the two systems meet material needs, psychosocial needs, and those needs created by the constraints of the nonprofit environment in Malawi. Interviews were conducted with 50 orphans, nine orphanage and foster system administrators, five foster and group home caregivers, five health care workers, and five community members. All interviewees were asked questions about the children's routine, educational experience, residence characteristics, responsibilities, free time, health care, and future prospects. Administrators and parents were also queried about the management and organization of the programs, and health care workers were asked additional questions about the orphans’ health care and supplies for it. It was found that Malawian orphans placed in orphanages have an advantage over those placed in foster homes along the dimensions of lodging, health care, food quantity and variety, clothing, and school supplies. Additionally, children in orphanages have more autonomy, and have a broader concept of their future potential. Orphanage residents view their caregivers as compassionate and loving. Finally, it was found that orphanages are more efficient in providing care and at exchanging information with other organizations. They are also easier to replicate for use in other areas than are community‐based programs. The article concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings and directions for future research.     

国家治理逻辑与农民生存选择——基于农民矿工的行为分析

农民矿工的职业选择是由其生存境况决定的。在推行赶超战略过程中,国家为能从农村提取经济资源并保持政治稳定,在给予农民生存保障的同时,也对其行动自由进行限制;由于无法掌控命运,只要还能维持生存,农民一般会对国家表示忠诚和顺从。由于近乎于零的机会成本和濒临生存线的高边际效用,部分贫困农民不得不从事诸如煤矿采掘这样一些充满危险的工作。法律保障的缺失、行动能力的弱小,使得农民矿工无力有效维护其基本权利。     

Arzamas-16 and Russian Studies

Abstract

A Korean specialist analyzes the project designed to link the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR) and Trans-Korean Railway (TKR), a project that is currently under active discussion in both Russia and South Korea. The significance of the TSR in relation to Russia's new strategy towards the Asia-Pacific region and the present conditions of international transit container traffic is examined. An evaluation is offered of the critical issues that need to be resolved to make the project a reality as well as implications of the project for economics and politics in the region if the project reaches completion.