The Analysis of Bounded Count Data in Criminology

Background

Criminological research utilizes several types of delinquency scales, including frequency counts and, increasingly, variety scores. The latter counts the number of distinct types of crimes an individual has committed. Often, variety scores are modeled via count regression techniques (e.g., Poisson, negative binomial), which are best suited to the analysis of unbounded count data. Variety scores, however, are inherently bounded.

Methods

We review common regression approaches for count data and then advocate for a different, more suitable approach for variety scores—binomial regression, and zero-inflated binomial regression, which allow one to consider variety scores as a series of binomial trials, thus accounting for bounding. We provide a demonstration with two simulations and data from the Fayetteville Youth Study.

Conclusions

Binomial regression generally performs better than traditional regression models when modeling variety scores. Importantly, the interpretation of binomial regression models is straightforward and related to the more familiar logistic regression. We recommend researchers use binomial regression models when faced with variety delinquency scores.

     

Cyberbullying Among Chilean Students and the Protective Effects of Positive School Communities

Cyberbullying is a type of bullying that involves the use of technology to harm other students. Most researchers have examined individual-level characteristics, but the perception of school climate and school characteristics such as type, size, and level of vulnerabilities have not been considered using multilevel methods. Using a sample of 8,237 Chilean seventh graders from 1,322 schools we examined individual- and school-level predictors of cyberbullying perpetration. Cyberbullying perpetration was predicted by prior victimization, interpersonal relationships, and gender. We found an interaction effect between interpersonal relationships and teacher support for victims. Our findings support the notion that school policies and culture can play a vital role in the prevention of cyberbullying, supporting a protective resilience model.     

Implicit Taxes Collected by State Liquor Monopolies

State monopolization or taxation aresupposedly justified because of negativeexternalities from alcohol consumption, butrecent research questions the efficacy ofsuch policies, suggesting that their actualgoals may be revenue-generation.Consideration of this hypothesis isfacilitated by estimates of the implicittaxes charged in monopoly states, whichgenerally are substantially higher thantaxes in non-monopoly states. Evidencethat monopolization and high taxes do notaffect the level of externalities is alsoexplained by adjustments that rationalindividuals make to avoid the consequencesof such policies, thus providing furthersupport for the revenue-maximizationhypothesis.     

Child support: Interstate Dimensions

The failure of uniform state laws and other forms of interstatecooperation to solve the problem of collection of child supportby a custodial parent from a reluctant obligor in another stateled Congress to employ incrementally conditional grants-in-aidto regulate states' efforts to enforce child support orders.Congressional action has produced limited results and the proposalhas been advanced for establishment of an exclusive federalgovernment child support system. Our analysis suggests thatCongress lacks authority to establish such a system and interstatecollection of child support will continue to be a serious problem.     

The potential to determine a postmortem submersion interval based on algal/diatom diversity on decomposing mammalian carcasses in brackish ponds in Delaware

Recently botanical evidence has been studied to determine if it is useful in forensic investigations. This study was performed to examine stillborn piglet decomposition in a brackish water environment and to semi-quantitatively document stages of decomposition, degree day accumulation per stage as well as the algal/diatom diversity useful in determining a postmortem submersion interval (PMSI). Piglets and ceramic tiles were submerged in brackish ponds and sampled on a regular basis to document algal diversity and succession between substrates and stages of decomposition. Significantly greater weight was lost from piglet carcasses during the early floating and advanced floating decay stages. Seasonal effects were observed in degree-day accumulations. Diatom diversity was significantly greater on piglet carcasses compared to tile substrates. Algal diversity decreased over time on the piglet carcasses as well as the stage of decomposition. A significant relationship and strong correlation between algal diversity found on the piglet substrate with time was observed. Our results indicate that more research is needed to examine the potential to use diatoms in not only determining manner of death but also the duration of time (PMSI) a victim may have been immersed in an aquatic environment.     

More Than Just Keeping Busy: The Protective Effects of Organized Activity Participation on Violence and Substance Use Among Urban Youth

Violence and substance use disproportionately affect African American youth in urban, disadvantaged communities. Expanding positive peer and adult connections is a mechanism by which organized activity participation may reduce risk of negative outcomes. We assessed if organized activity participation decreases the likelihood of later negative outcomes through expanding positive social connections using a parallel mediation model (Wave 1: N?=?681; 50% female; M_age?=?14.86 years; SD?=?0.65). We found indirect effects from participation to cigarette use (b?=??0.04, 95% CI: ?0.07, ?0.01) and violent behavior (b?=??0.04; 95% CI: ?0.07, ?0.01) through positive peer connections. We did not find indirect effects through positive adult connections. This may be because of the notable influence of peers on negative outcomes during adolescence. Organized activities can help youth expand positive peer connections, which, in turn, reduces risk of later negative outcomes. Implications for prevention are discussed.     

Stressors in Multiple Life-Domains and the Risk for Externalizing and Internalizing Behaviors Among African Americans During Emerging Adulthood

Behavioral and mental health outcomes have been associated with experiencing high levels of stress. Yet, little is known about the link between the nature of stressors, their accumulation over time, and the risk for externalizing and internalizing outcomes. Compared to the general population, African Americans are exposed to a disproportionate number of stressors beginning earlier in life. Incorporating Agnew’s General Strain Theory into the study of stress, this study examined whether different kinds of stressors are equally salient in the risk for violent behaviors and depressive symptoms among African Americans transitioning into young adulthood. It further examined the effects of the accumulation of stressors in different life domains and their effect on risks. This study utilized data from an African American subsample of an ongoing longitudinal study that followed 604 adolescents (53?% females) from 9th grade into adulthood. Multilevel growth curve models were used to examine how changes in stressors across multiple life domains related to violent behaviors and depressive symptoms. We found that continued exposure to perceived daily stress and racial discrimination stress increased the risk for violent behaviors during young adulthood, and exhibited a nonlinear relationship between the accumulation of stressors and risk for violence. Moreover, we found that exposure to perceived daily stress, financial stress, neighborhood stress, and racial discrimination stress increased the risk of depressive symptoms and led to a linear relationship between the accumulation of stressors and risk for depressive symptoms. Findings suggest identifiable stressors that can persist over time to influence risks at young adulthood.     

Online Network Influences on Emerging Adults’ Alcohol and Drug Use

Researchers have reported that network characteristics are associated with substance use behavior. Considering that social interactions within online networks are increasingly common, we examined the relationship between online network characteristics and substance use in a sample of emerging adults (ages 18–24) from across the United States (N = 2,153; M = 21 years old; 47 % female; 70 % White). We used regression analyses to examine the relationship between online ego network characteristics (i.e., characteristics of individuals directly related to the focal participant plus the relationships shared among individuals within the online network) and alcohol use and substance use, respectively. Alcohol use was associated with network density (i.e., interconnectedness between individuals in a network), total number of peer ties, and a greater proportion of emotionally close ties. In sex-stratified models, density was related to alcohol use for males but not females. Drug use was associated with an increased number of peer ties, and the increased proportion of network members’ discussion and acceptance of drug use, respectively. We also found that online network density and total numbers of ties were associated with more personal drug use for males but not females. Conversely, we noted that social norms were related to increased drug use and this relationship was stronger for females than males. We discuss the implications of our findings for substance use and online network research.