Modeling Equilibrium Relationships: Error Correction Models with Strongly Autoregressive Data

Political scientists often argue that political processes movetogether in the long run. Examples include partisanship andgovernment approval, conflict and cooperation among countries,public policy sentiment and policy activity, economic evaluationsand economic conditions, and taxing and spending. Error correctionmodels and cointegrating relationships are often used to characterizethese equilibrium relationships and to test hypotheses aboutpolitical change. Typically the techniques used to estimateequilibrium relationships are based on the statistical assumptionthat the processes have permanent memory, implying that politicalexperiences cumulate. Yet many analysts have argued that thisis not a reasonable theoretical or statistical assumption formost political time series. In this paper I examine the consequencesof assuming permanent memory when data have long but not permanentmemory. I focus on two commonly used estimators: the Engle-Grangertwo-step estimator and generalized error correction. In my analysisI consider the important role of simultaneity and discuss implicationsfor the conclusions political scientists have drawn about thenature, even the existence, of equilibrium relationships betweenpolitical processes. I find that even small violations of thepermanent memory assumption can present substantial problemsfor inference on long-run relationships in situations that arelikely to be common in applied work in all fields and suggestways that analysts should proceed.     

The effect of ASEM on European foreign policies

This paper argues the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) interregional process has had a great influence on the European partners, in fact, much greater than so far acknowledged. It gives an overview of the adaptation of European partners foreign policies towards East Asia as seen in the creation or modification of their overall strategies. It then presents in more detail the selected case studies of Spain and Sweden. The findings show that most EU partners have indeed have considered the ASEM process a useful route to advance their interests towards East Asia, and that six have created or upgraded comprehensive strategies. The two in-depth country analyses (Sweden and Spain) further substantiate the claim that the ASEM process has had an important effect on European partners. It is expected that this trend will continue.Paper presented at the 5th Pan-European Conference of the European Consortium for Political Researchs Standing group on International Relations, Den Hague, Netherlands, 9–11 September 2004.     

Kyoto,Europe?—An Economic Evaluation of the European Emission Trading Directive

To meet its obligations accepted in the Kyoto Protocol cost effectively, the European Union introduces a scheme of Greenhouse Gas Allowance Trading for its member states. This paper evaluates the cost effectiveness, ecological accuracy and dynamic incentives of this approach.The EU-emissions trading constitutes an important shift in the paradigm of environmental policy, from command and control to a market based approach. Still, the EU-system does not fully realize the economic potential of the transferable discharge permit policy. Especially, the limited scope of trading regarding geography, pollutants, sectors and activities reduces the quality of the system. Moreover, the EU-Directive is unspecific in many respects and it leaves many decisions defining the rules of the game to the individual member state. Uncertainty and heterogeneity increase transaction cost and thereby hamper the effectiveness of the system.JEL Classification: Q54, Q58, K32     

Judicial Career Incentives and Court Performance: An Empirical Study of the German Labour Courts of Appeal

This paper examines how the organization of a civil-law judiciary—the German labour court system—shapes court performance. It is argued that civil-law judiciaries can be considered as internal labour markets in which the main incentive derives from career opportunities. Resulting hypotheses are tested on data for nine German Labour Courts of Appeal (Landesarbeitsgerichte) over the period 1980–1998. Two performance measures are computed: the confirmation rate and a productivity measure. The confirmation rate captures how often decisions are upheld in an appeal at the Federal Labour Court. Court productivity is measured by a score derived via data envelopment analysis (DEA) and includes as outputs the number of finished cases and the number of published decisions. Regression analyses show: Courts employing more judges with a Ph.D. are more productive, but write decisions that are less often confirmed by the Federal Labour Court. Courts employing judges with higher ex ante promotion probabilities are less productive and write decisions that are less often confirmed.JEL Classification: J45, K31, M12     

Veit Ludwig von Seckendorff’s “Fürsten Stat” and the Duchy of Saxe-Gotha

This paper deals with the formation of the territorial state in Gotha during the time in which Veit Ludwig von Seckendorff was involved, starting in 1640, and with the relations between the theoretical explanations of the state in Seckendorff’s book “Teutscher Fürsten Stat,” first published in 1656, and his political environment in Gotha. It shows that Seckendorff’s maxims often corresponded to real politics there. But at the same time, there were grave differences in such fundamental issues as the personal regimen of the prince and the organization of the administration or the financing of the court.     

Whistleblower protection: is Africa ready?

The article critically examines propositions driving the exportation of western whistleblower concepts into the developing world. 1

1 The full definition used in the article is that whistleblowing is an act of ethical reporting by concerned citizen, totally or predominantly motivated by the public interest, who initiate of their own free will an open disclosure about significant wrongdoing to a person or agency capable of investigating the disclosure, and who suffers accordingly. This definition was developed in the course of the Queensland Whistleblower Study, Australia's largest inquiry into whistleblowers. Whistleblowing is a different reporting mode to that used by informants, hot line users, witnesses, public interest denunciators, and disclosures in confidence (De Maria, 1994; De Maria & Jan, 1994; De Maria, 1999, pp. 24–35). Africa, throughout the article means sub‐Saharan Africa. Abridged versions of this paper were presented to the 4th National Business Ethics Conference, Zanzibar, 1 September 2004 and a staff seminar in the School of Sociology, University of Johannesburg, 25 August 2004.

Specifically it attacks the prevailing view that public interest disclosure is somehow a culture‐free, or at least a culture‐muted phenomenon, governed by a set of rules and conventions detached from local histories and practices. The article concludes that this exportation is in the spirit of neo‐colonialism and issues a note of warning about the dangers of dispersing western conceived forms of corruption reporting to Africa. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Dutch perspective: the limits of lawful euthanasia

Dutch author Ubaldus de Vries reviews the current state of the euthanasia law in the Netherlands. The legislation, enacted in 2001, creates a medical exception that allows for euthanasia in cases where patients experience "hopeless and unbearable suffering." A brief history of the Dutch approach to euthanasia is set forth, case law is reviewed, and the unique role of the doctor is examined in seeking to understand the extent of one's right to euthanasia in the Netherlands. Because the courts must determine what constitutes "hopeless and unbearable suffering," Professor de Vries analyzes the judicial interpretation of "suffering" and concludes that judicial interpretation has reached its limits, and thus by implication, the limits of lawful euthanasia have been reached.     

Highly sensitive screening method for nitroaromatic, nitramine and nitrate ester explosives by high performance liquid chromatography-atmospheric pressure ionization-mass spectrometry (HPLC-API-MS) in forensic applications

A highly sensitive screening method based on high performance liquid chromatography atmospheric pressure ionization mass spectrometry (HPLC-API-MS) has been developed for the analysis of 21 nitroaromatic, nitramine and nitrate ester explosives, which include the explosives most commonly encountered in forensic science. Two atmospheric pressure ionization (API) methods, atmospheric pressure chemical ionization (APCI) and electrospray ionization (ESI), and various experimental conditions have been applied to allow for the detection of all 21 explosive compounds. The limit of detection (LOD) in the full-scan mode has been found to be 0.012-1.2 ng on column for the screening of most explosives investigated. For nitrobenzene, an LOD of 10 ng was found with the APCI method in the negative mode. Although the detection of nitrobenzene, 2-, 3-, and 4-nitrotoluene is hindered by the difficult ionization of these compounds, we have found that by forming an adduct with glycine, LOD values in the range of 3-16 ng on column can be achieved. Compared with previous screening methods with thermospray ionization, the API method has distinct advantages, including simplicity and stability of the method applied, an extended screening range and a low detection limit for the explosives studied.     

Heterogeneity of Girls’ Consensual Popularity: Academic and Interpersonal Behavioral Profiles

The present study explored the heterogeneous nature of popularity by investigating subgroups of popular girls (N = 365) in their first year of secondary school (mean age  =  13.05). Cluster analysis revealed the presence of five subgroups based upon sociometric popularity (i.e., those considered likeable by peers) and consensual popularity (i.e., those considered popular by peers), and academic behavioral indices. Two of these groups contained girls who were all nominated as “popular” by classmates, yet the girls in one group displayed very positive academic behaviors (Popular Studious); girls in the other popular group displayed extreme antiacademic behaviors (Popular Disengaged). The remaining groups were Average Popular, Unpopular Disengaged, and Unpopular Studious. External validating measures confirmed the existence of the subgroups, that is, Popular Studious girls were judged by classmates to behave in a prosocial fashion, whereas Popular Disengaged girls exhibited many antisocial behaviors, and were often nominated as bullies. Unpopular Studious girls were often nominated as victims. These findings confirmed the hypothesis that consensual popularity is a heterogeneous concept, and that antiacademic and antisocial girls may still be among the most consensually popular students in secondary schools.Lecturer at the Department of Educational Sciences, University of Amsterdam, Wibautstraat 4, 1091 GM Amsterdam, The Netherlands. His interests include the academic and social behavioral correlates of consensual popularity in adolescence.Associate Professor and Head of Developmental Division, Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut. His interests include peer relations, social behavior, and social cognition in middle childhood and early adolescence.