Competition and cooperation in artificial intelligence standard setting: Explaining emergent patterns

Efforts to set standards for artificial intelligence (AI) reveal striking patterns: technical experts hailing from geopolitical rivals, such as the United States and China, readily collaborate on technical AI standards within transnational standard-setting organizations, whereas governments are much less willing to collaborate on global ethical AI standards within international organizations. Whether competition or cooperation prevails can be explained by three variables: the actors that make up the membership of the standard-setting organization, the issues on which the organization's standard-setting efforts focus, and the “games” actors play when trying to set standards within a particular type of organization. A preliminary empirical analysis provides support for the contention that actors, issues, and games affect the prospects for cooperation on global AI standards. It matters because shared standards are vital for achieving truly global frameworks for the governance of AI. Such global frameworks, in turn, lower transaction costs and the probability that the world will witness the emergence of AI systems that threaten human rights and fundamental freedoms.     

Quadratic voting in the wild: real people,real votes

Since their introduction in 1932, Likert and other continuous, independent rating scales have become the de facto toolset for survey research. Scholars have raised significant reliability and validity problems with these types of scales, and alternative methods for capturing perceptions and preferences have gained traction within specific domains. In this paper, we evaluate a new, broadly applicable approach to opinion measurement based on quadratic voting (QV), a method in which respondents express preferences by ‘buying’ votes for options using a fixed budget from which they pay quadratic prices for votes. Comparable QV-based and Likert-based survey instruments designed by Collective Decision Engines LLC were evaluated experimentally by assigning potential respondents randomly to one or the other method. Using a host of metrics, including respondent engagement and process-based metrics, we provide some initial evidence that the QV-based instrument provides a clearer measure of the preferences of the most intensely motivated respondents than the Likert-based instrument does. We consider the implications for survey satisficing, a key threat to the continued value of survey research, and discuss the mechanisms by which QV differentiates itself from Likert-based scales, thus establishing QV as a promising alternative survey tool for political and commercial research. We also explore key design issues within QV-based surveys to extend these promising results.     

Ex Pluribus Unum: Fusion of the European Communities into the European Union

Abstract: This article presents the main legal approaches used in constructing the relationships between the TEU, TEC, TEAC and TECSC and the institutions set up by them. It argues that the dominant approaches which separate the European Union from the European Communities run into serious difficulties when explaining the normative framework and the actual practice of the EU institutions. In contrast, the proposed 'unity thesis' asserts that de lege lata the European Union can be considered one entity from the point of view of the organisation, its actions and its law, The article develops in detail the legal premises and some of the consequences of this thesis.     

Assessing organized crime: Provisional situation report on trafficking in contraband cigarettes

This report has a dual purpose. On one hand it aims at providing an assessment of the cigarette black market in Northwest Europe, based on a review of open source data. On the other hand, it serves to tentatively explore the possibilities for a comprehensive and meaningful assessment of the organized crime situation in this particular sector.     

Problems of assessing sibship probabilities by means of genetic analysis

Nowadays, kinship studies based only on STR analysis are a very common practice. Apart from regular paternity cases, there is a rising number of cases in which the type of sibship between two persons has to be determined. Very often the parents or further relatives are unavailable for testing, so that the probability e. g. for a half-sibship has to be calculated as a deficiency situation. 50 unrelated persons (Group 1), 50 full siblings (Group 2), and 50 half-siblings (Group 3) were genotyped using the 15 STRs comprised by the AmpFlSTR Identifiler multiplex PCR-kit to investigate the reliability of common statistics programs and the indicative value of the calculated probabilities. Using a commercially available statistics program, we calculated probabilities for the following hypotheses: 1. The persons investigated are full siblings; 2. the persons investigated are half-siblings; 3. the persons investigated are unrelated. After STR analysis, half-sibling probabilities between 0.03 %-97.56% for group 1, between 0.01%-78.46% for group 2, and between 24.28%-90.18% for group 3 were calculated. In addition, the authors present two complicated deficiency cases which could be resolved only by extensive DNA typing using X- and Y-chromosomal loci, respectively, as well as the investigation of further relatives. The results of this study suggest that typing of autosomal STRs alone is no sufficient tool for resolving cases of possible half-sibship, even if probabilities of more than 90.0% are obtained. Due to the results of our study we suggest the implementation of mandatory standards for the investigation and interpretation of complicated kinship cases.