Rethinking the Probative Value of Evidence: Base Rates,Intuitive Profiling,and the “Postdiction” of Behavior

It is argued that American courts may be routinely admitting evidence with little to no probative value and great potential for prejudicial impact. This may be particularly likely with regard to what is essentially intuitive profiling or stereotype related evidence, defined herein as evidence suggesting that the defendant (or other party), or his (her) behavior, fits intuitive profiles (or stereotypes) of the type of person likely to commit the crime or behavior in question. In other words, intuitive profiling evidence is admitted to postdict behavior. Formal empirically based profiling evidence (testimony regarding the fit of a defendant's characteristics or behaviors to formal or scientific profiles of the typical perpetrator of the crime in question for use to prove guilt is inadmissible in American courts. However, we suggest that everyday use of informal intuitive profiles underlies both judicial determinations of probative value diagnosticity, and thus admissibility, of evidence, and jurors' use of the evidence in determining guilt. Demonstrations of the use of base rate information to evaluate the probative value of such intuitive profiling evidence both as evidence of guilt and as evidence of innocence are provided. Demonstrations of both how to evaluate the actual probative value of evidence (when all necessary values are known), and the theoretical limit of its probative value (in circumstances where some values are not known) are provided. It is argued that such evaluations may provide the basis for (1) support of motions to either admit or to exclude evidence, (2) testimony to the jury to help them weigh or interpret evidence, (3) exculpatory profiling (profiling evidence of innocence), (4) pretrial research to establish probative versus prejudicial value of evidence, and (5) sufficiency analyses to determine maximum likelihood of guilt, given multiple items of evidence. Among these, the first two are considered most important, as it can be demonstrated that many profiling characteristics currently admitted in trial (such as evidence of battery to support a murder charge) are not probative of guilt.     

Fatal salmonella aortitis with mycotic aneurysm rupture

Salmonellae most commonly cause uncomplicated cases of gastroenteritis but have a predilection for damaged blood vessels, especially those damaged by atherosclerosis. The abdominal aorta is most frequently affected. The most serious complication of aortitis is mycotic aneurysm formation with subsequent rupture. The authors present the case of a 61-year-old man who was found unresponsive at home 3 days after discharge from the hospital for treatment of gastroenteritis with bacteremia. Postmortem examination revealed a ruptured mycotic aneurysm with a large retroperitoneal hematoma. Numerous gram-negative rods were embedded in the wall of the aorta and surrounding inflammatory infiltrate, compatible with the patient's previously isolated. Whereas abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture is most commonly associated with atherosclerosis, the isolation of from blood cultures, coupled with radiographic evidence of gas surrounding the aorta, should raise the suspicion of infectious aortitis. Whereas fatal rupture of an aortic aneurysm secondary to atherosclerosis alone or in conjunction with aortitis will not have an impact on the manner of death, infections are reportable and thus have public health implications.     

Suicidal behavior in South Asians in the UK

Rates of deliberate self-harm have been reported to be higher among South Asians, especially women, in the UK. Two studies collected information on inception rates of deliberate self-harm in the UK and reported that rates of attempted suicide are much higher among South Asian women especially those aged 18-24. These rates are associated with high rates of cultural alienation and previous attempts. The implications of cultural conflict are discussed in this context. In addition, a hypothetical model of interrelationship of factors for both adults and adolescents is described.     

Hemopericardium caused by endocarditis ulcerosa: an unusual cause of sudden death in adolescence

The authors report on the case of a 18-year-old student who died suddenly and unexpectedly of a pericardial tamponade after perforated ulcer-polypous endocarditis of the aortic valve. The detection of aerococcus urinae--which usually causes urinary tract infection--on the inflamed aortic valve demonstrates an unusual pathogenetic chain linking complexes of findings in the urogenital system and the heart.     

Glycated hemoglobin: a useful post-mortem reference marker in determining diabetes

Glycated hemoglobin (HbA(1c)) has been demonstrated to be a useful marker for long-term glucose control in diabetes. This parameter characterizes each non-enzymatic fixation of glucose on hemoglobin. It is a useful test in addition to periodic glycemia controls since it reflects the mean glycemia of the past 60 days. We studied the conservation of HbA(1c) at 4 degrees C as a function of time with different anti-coagulants and preservatives (3, 6 months, 1 year). A total of 106 tests were performed using the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method dedicated to the semi-automatic analysis of HbA(1c) (Bio-Rad) and we applied the method in forensic cases. Conservation at 4 degrees C was good for as long as 3 months in blood samples collected with fluoride and 6 months in samples collected in a dry or in a heparinized tube. In non-diabetic subjects, HbA(1c) reference values obtained from forensic samples were identical to those of living controls (3.5-6.25% of total hemoglobin). All positive HbA(1c) results were confirmed by a medical evaluation. This method was successfully applied to five forensic cases. In cases of increased acetonemia, acetone or isopropanol are easily measured. However, in some unexplained post-mortem circumstances, increased HbA(1c) permits to differentiate alcoholic or starvation ketoacidosis from the diabetic cases. Glycated hemoglobin should, therefore, be considered the forensic marker of choice in the post-mortem diagnosis of a diabetic disorder and demonstrates its usefulness in post-mortem validation.     

Plasma,oral fluid and sweat wipe ecstasy concentrations in controlled and real life conditions

In a double-blind placebo controlled study on psychomotor skills important for car driving (Study 1), a 75 mg dose of +/- 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) was administered orally to 12 healthy volunteers who were known to be recreational MDMA-users. Toxicokinetic data were gathered by analysis of blood, urine, oral fluid and sweat wipes collected during the first 5h after administration. Resultant plasma concentrations varied from 21 to 295 ng/ml, with an average peak concentration of 178 ng/ml observed between 2 and 4h after administration. MDA concentrations never exceeded 20 ng/ml. Corresponding MDMA concentrations in oral fluid, as measured with a specific LC-MS/MS method (which required only 50 microl of oral fluid), generally exceeded those in plasma and peaked at an average concentration of 1215 ng/ml. A substantial intra- and inter-subject variability was observed with this matrix, and values ranged from 50 to 6982 ng/ml MDMA. Somewhat surprisingly, even 4-5h after ingestion, the MDMA levels in sweat only averaged 25 ng/wipe. In addition to this controlled study, data were collected from 19 MDMA-users who participated in a driving simulator study (Study 2), comparing sober non-drug conditions with MDMA-only and multiple drug use conditions. In this particular study, urine samples were used for general drug screening and oral fluid was collected as an alternative to blood sampling. Analysis of oral fluid samples by LC-MS/MS revealed an average MDMA/MDEA concentration of 1121 ng/ml in the MDMA-only condition, with large inter-subject variability. This was also the case in the multiple drug condition, where generally, significantly higher concentrations of MDMA, MDEA and/or amphetamine were detected in the oral fluid samples. Urine screening revealed the presence of combinations such as MDMA, MDEA, amph, cannabis, cocaine, LSD and psilocine in the multiple-drug condition.     

Intracranial stab injuries: case report and case study

Non-missile penetrating brain injuries are rare events in western countries. We report a case with lethal stab injury of the brain and identification of the weapon used in the assault by digital superimposition on CT scans taken at admission of the victim to a hospital. Furthermore, all cases with knife stab wounds of the skull between 1971 and 2000 were analyzed and compared with literature reports. Results of this study show that there is no region preference despite of differences in bone thickness, that stab wounds of the brain are almost invariably associated with multiple stab wounds to the trunk and that the wound tract may correspond to the dimensions of the blade allowing the identification of the weapon by digital image analysis.     

小机会孕育大事业

你认为自己已经具备了成为企业家的所有条件。你已经阅读了别人的成功故事，他们大获成功，这令你感到不安。你工作得很出色，人们总是说你前途无量，但是．你已经厌倦了接受平庸的人发出的平庸命令。而凡，为什么所有聪明的想法都是你的，但荣誉却总被别人得到？什么时候你能得到一次大幅提升——有可观的工资上涨．得到期权奖励和巨额奖金呢？“再等等，”他们总是说。“再等等。”是自己当老板的时候了。然而，如果你现在的工作舒适而安逸，每月定期领取工资，在现代化的办公室里工作．有一个高效率的秘书，还有一种在基础稳同的大公司工作的安全感．那么．住你辞上这份好工作之前，我有些告诫的话给你。