巴以和平曙光再现,和平道路仍然曲折艰难

布什总统第二任期内会更多关注巴、以冲突。温和派阿巴斯接替阿拉法特,巴勒斯坦进入后阿拉法特时代。沙龙与工党组成联合政府。中东再现和平曙光。巴以恢复和谈还须克服障碍。和平进程将是脆弱而艰难的,出现反复甚至逆转的可能性始终存在。     

中东的严峻形势与美国的困难处境

中东形势紧张动荡加剧。伊拉克局势难以稳定,巴以和谈步履维艰,伊朗核问题陷入僵局,叙黎关系陡然生变,恐怖活动有增无减,大中东民主改造计划阻力重重。美国中东政策失大于得,被迫降低战略目标,对政策做出一定调整,但不会从中东脱身。     

A Retrospective Study of Intentional Body Dismemberment in New York City: 1996–2017

A review of New York City dismemberment cases occurring between 1996 and 2017 was conducted, which resulted in a total of 55 dismembered decedents in a 22‐year period. Annual trends indicate an average of 2.5 dismembered decedents. Additional results show that 53% of cases involved transection only, 35% involved disarticulation only, and 13% involved a combination of both. When the entire body could be accounted for, the average number of body portions per case was 5.5. Frequent locations for dismemberment were the neck, shoulders, hips, and knees. Dismemberment locations showed a general trend of anatomical symmetry. Seventy‐eight percent of the dismemberments involve disposal of body parts in an outside location. Eighty‐four percent were concealed from view with some type of covering. The findings from New York City are compared with other studies.     

福州市热岛效应的监测与探讨

利用遥感技术,以Landsat TM为数据源,对福州城市热岛效应的分布特征和变化规律进行动态监测和综合分析,同时在此基础上,提出减轻城市热岛效应的措施.     

论中国在建立国际经济新秩序中的战略定位——兼评“新自由主义经济秩序”论、“WTO宪政秩序”论、“经济民族主义扰乱全球化秩序”论

1980年代以来,国际社会中力图阻挠或扭曲建立国际经济新秩序(NIEO)历史潮流的各种学说层出不穷,诸如"新自由主义经济秩序"论、"WTO宪政秩序"论、"经济民族主义扰乱全球化秩序"论等等。这类学说虽然激发了一些新的有益思考,却确实造成了一系列新的思想混乱。建立NIEO乃是1950年代以来全球弱势群体数十亿人口争取国际经济平权地位的共同奋斗目标,当代中国人应当全面、完整、准确地加深理解邓小平的"韬光养晦、有所作为"方针,将中国在建立NIEO历史进程中的战略坐标和基本角色,定位为旗帜鲜明、言行一致的积极推动者。中国理应进一步发扬传统的具有独特内涵的中华民族爱国主义,通过BRICSM类型的"南南联合"群体,成为建立NIEO的积极推手和中流砥柱之一。总之,中国人务必保持清醒,谨防落入上述各种"时髦"理论的陷阱。     

阿根廷模式与新发展主义的兴起

2001年年底爆发金融危机和经济危机后,阿根廷政府从根本上否定了新自由主义经济模式,进行了一系列重大改革,逐步形成了一种与新自由主义和旧发展主义经济模式有着许多不同特点的新发展战略或模式,即所谓阿根廷模式或基什内尔模式.有的学者认为,阿根廷的经济发展实践是新发展主义在拉美兴起的标志.笔者认为,这是一种正在探索中的模式,因而也是一种不成熟的模式,甚至可以说是一种还"没有成型"的模式的雏形,在今后的实践中也许能逐步发展成一种切实可行的模式,也许最终走向彻底失败.但无论如何,现在它是阿根廷和其他拉美国家正在进行的探索性实践.     

Policy incentives and the extension of mortgage credit: Increasing market discipline for subprime lending

The lax underwriting in non‐prime mortgage markets is widely perceived as one cause of the recent difficulties in the housing market. Policymakers are currently considering moves such as enforcing more careful underwriting to provide additional discipline to mortgage markets. This research explores the possibility of another approach to supplement or replace some of these efforts, namely the use of policy to create incentives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (together, the GSEs) to help “check” behavior in non‐prime markets. The hypothesis is that the GSE Act affordable housing goals have increased GSE focus on targeted loan purchases, which in turn has led prime market lenders to compete more aggressively for borrowers on the margin between prime and subprime credit quality. As a consequence, these marginal borrowers will be more inclined to take prime mortgages rather than higher‐cost subprime loans. We test this hypothesis and find empirical support for it. We observe a negative relationship between the growth in GSE market share and the growth in subprime market share over time, and find that the impact of the GSEs on subprime lending tends to be stronger in high‐minority neighborhoods, where subprime lending has been concentrated and growing the fastest. Simulations show that a 10 percent increase in GSE market share (for example, from 20 to 22 percent) can cause 45,000 borrowers using prime instead of subprime loans a cost savings of about $1.7 billion. These results suggest that the GSEs, regardless of their postconservatorship form, should continue to devote attention to serving underserved populations and suggest that significant welfare benefits will accrue. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

生态工业是中国特色新型工业化的必由之路

生态工业是循环经济在工业领域的具体实现,它与传统工业在追求目标、资源开发利用方式、产业结构与布局、系统构成、对技术和产品的要求以及废弃物的处理方式等方面有着本质上的区别.作为仿照自然界生态系统物质循环原理来规划和运行工业生产系统的一种全新发展模式和经济形态,以清洁生产和生态工业园区为主要实现形式的生态工业已经成为当代世界工业发展的主要方向.大力发展生态工业是坚持走中国特色新型工业化道路的必然趋势和战略选择.     

九华黄精炮制前后多糖类成分结构变化研究

目的 研究九华黄精酒制和九蒸九晒炮制前后多糖类成分的结构差异.方法 采用水提醇沉、透析纯化得到九华黄精生药材及其炮制品多糖,苯酚硫酸法测定总多糖含量,高效凝胶渗透色谱法、气相色谱法和红外光谱法解析炮制前后多糖分子量、单糖组成及结构差异.结果 与生黄精相比,酒制和九蒸九晒黄精多糖含量分别降低20.94％、26.51％.生...     

和谐价值理念与意识形态理论

和谐价值理念中内涵着浓厚的意识形态色彩,是阶级性与科学性、继承性与创新性、民族性与世界性的辩证统一,是社会主义意识形态理论的拓展和延伸。意识形态工作对社会和谐价值理念的形成具有重要的促进作用。新形势下,必须着眼于和谐价值理念的服务渗透,对意识形态工作进行全方位的创新。