The world population situation

Population experts appear to be reaching a consensus that there has been a perceptible decline over the last decade in the growth of the world's population. The decline is accounted for by the "new demographic transition" in the less developed countries (LDCs). The decline in fertility rates began in the 1950s in some LDCs and became more widespread during the 1970s. The process has not yet begun in many of the LDCs. During the 1960s it was observed that the declines in birth rates (to levels of 30 of less per 1000) were occurring mostly in small countries. Many of these countries were islands with levels of social and economic development above the developing country average. The key question is whether the recent downward trend in fertility in LDCs will continue, stabilize at the current level, or rise again. A primary concern about the future is that the poorer and less developed countries will end up with an increasing share of the world's population, with the share of the developed countries declining from 34% to 22% over the 1950-2000 period. Considerable differential exists in demographic growth patterns among various regions. The 12 largest LDCs (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Turkey) contain 55% of the current world population, and the fertility decline of these nations is expected to have the maximum impact. 7 of these countries have had fertility declines of 14-35%. The force of the "population momentum" must also be considered. Most developing country populations have a young age distribution with considerable potential for population growth even after the fertility level reaches a replacement level and the net reproduction rate equals 1.     

The hospice movement and its implications

Hospices, unheard of in this country a few years ago, have become a fast-growing American phenomenon. They promise effective pain relief for terminal cancer patients as well as a warm, homey atmosphere where fear and loneliness are minimized. Hospices are basically a creation of the British and it is still unclear how--or even whether--the principles they embody can be successfully incorporated into American medicine. However, hospices can make an important philosophical contribution by showing the way toward removing the stigma attached to death. Hospice principles also have implications for all of health care, in emphasizing the importance of treating the whole person rather than just the disease.     

A decade of rapid change: the outlook for human resources management in the '80s

The new decade also means a new chapter for personnel professionals. From our research, interviews and observations during the '70s come these predictions for the '80s.