In the Eye of the Beholder? Motivated Reasoning in Disputed Elections

This study uses an experimental design to simulate the ballot counting process during a hand-recount after a disputed election. Applying psychological theories of motivated reasoning to the political process, we find that ballot counters’ party identification conditionally influences their ballot counting decisions. Party identification’s effect on motivated reasoning is greater when ballot counters are given ambiguous, versus specific, instructions for determining voter intent. This study’s findings have major implications for ballot counting procedures throughout the United States and for the use of motivated reasoning in the political science literature.     

The continued salience of religious voting in the United States, Germany, and Great Britain

Conventional wisdom on party systems in advanced industrial democracies holds that modern electorates are dealigned and that social cleavages no longer structure party politics. Recent work on class cleavages has challenged this stylized fact. The analysis performed here extends this criticism to the religious-secular cleavage. Using path analysis and comparing the current electorates of the United States, Germany, and Great Britain with the early 1960s, this paper demonstrates that the religious-secular cleavage remains or has become a significant predictor of conservative vote choice. While the effects of the religious-secular cleavage on vote choice have become largely indirect, the total of the direct and indirect effects is substantial and equivalent to the effects of class and status.     

THE INFLUENCE OF E‐GOVERNMENT ON ADMINISTRATIVE DISCRETION: THE CASE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS IN EGYPT

One important but often understudied area of research in public administration is the effect of e‐government on administrative discretion. This article examines e‐government factors that influence administrative discretion through a survey of local governments. The focus of this study is on Egyptian local governments, which are using e‐government to modernise public service delivery. Through a survey of administrative officials in these governments, this study found evidence that e‐government factors of collaboration and organisational change influenced administrative discretion. Other common factors noted in the literature such as size of the local government and demand by citizens for e‐government did not register an effect on administrative discretion. The results of this study imply that local governments should do more to enhance e‐government to reduce administrative discretion, especially in the area of increasing collaboration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Special Interests,Regulatory Quality,and the Pesticides Overload

Pesticides overuse is a serious threat to ecosystems and wildlife, human health, and agricultural sustainability. So far, however, social scientists have not produced systematic evidence on the political–economic determinants of pesticides overuse. We argue that the agrochemical industry, as a profit‐motivated interest group, will only mobilize politically to avoid reductions in pesticides use when regulatory institutions are potentially capable of correcting a market failure. If regulatory institutions are weakened by corruption or other factors, pesticides overuse occurs with or without the influence of the agrochemical industry. We test this interactive theory systematically against quantitative data on pesticides use in 24 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries, 1991–2003. Using corruption and other indicators to capture bureaucratic quality, we find substantively large and statistically robust interactive effects. The agrochemical industry is a crucial determinant of pesticides use in nations with low corruption, whereas the agrochemical industry has no effect on pesticides use under corrupt regulatory institutions. Troublingly, these results imply that reduced corruption may not improve actual regulatory effectiveness unless political institutions can somehow constrain the influence of special interests.     

Analysis of forensic soil samples via high-performance liquid chromatography and ion chromatography

Traditional forensic soil comparisons are performed via physical and/or chemical examinations of color, texture, and mineral content, leaving any organic- or water-soluble fractions unexamined. This study uses high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and ion chromatography (IC) to assess the qualitative and quantitative variation in these fractions of soil. Soil samples (n=120) were collected over the course of 3 weeks from urban, suburban, and rural locations in and around Lansing, MI. Additional samples from six of these locations (two urban, two suburban, and two rural) were collected once a week for 10 weeks for temporal analysis. Nine additional samples, equally spaced over a 1 m(2) grid, from these same six locations were collected for spatial analyses. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the resultant chromatograms separated the 120 samples into 10 groups by HPLC and 23 groups by IC. This study shows that using HPLC and IC to analyze the organic- and water-soluble fractions of soil can successfully discriminate samples. Quantitative analysis of the results eliminates some false inclusions by providing further differentiation of samples. The results of this study indicate that adding HPLC and IC analyses to traditional forensic soil analysis schemes can improve overall sample differentiation. The methods used in this study were also able to detect both qualitative and quantitative variations in soil over a relatively small geographic area. This demonstration of soil heterogeneity underscores the importance of the collection of a representative known sample population when assessing a forensic soil comparison. Significant temporal variation was also demonstrated over the course of 10 weeks of sampling; however, samples were found to be consistent over shorter periods of time. Baseline levels of inorganic anions were determined via IC; these levels may be useful in assessing the significance of anions detected in soil from cases involving low explosives.     

The Effect of Vertebral Numerical Variation on Anatomical Stature Estimates

Abstract: Most humans possess 24 presacral vertebrae composed of seven cervicals, 12 thoracics, and five lumbars. However, variation from this standard pattern exists. The purpose of this study was to test the effect of congenital vertebral numerical variation on anatomical stature estimates and to recommend appropriate procedures when such variation occurs. Our sample consists of 41 individuals with unusual vertebral count patterns and known cadaveric statures from the Smithsonian’s Terry Collection. Raxter et al. published a revised Fully anatomical technique in 2006 and we used this to estimate living stature. Based on our results, we recommend using the standard anatomical technique to reconstruct stature, regardless of vertebral pattern. However, when an individual possesses six sacral segments together with a normal number of presacral vertebrae, we recommend the addition of a slight correction factor of 1.3 cm or 0.8% of estimated stature.     

Intensive supervision programs: Does program philosophy and the principles of effective intervention matter?

Although traditional intensive supervision programs that have aimed at increasing control and surveillance in the community have not been shown to reduce recidivism, prior research indicates that intensive supervision programs that are based on a human service philosophy and provide treatment to offenders offer more promise. The current research examined the effectiveness of fifty-eight intensive supervision programs and sought to determine whether program philosophy and treatment integrity are associated with reductions in recidivism. The results indicated that both program philosophy and treatment integrity vary independently of one another and are related to the ability of programs to produce meaningful effects on recidivism.     

Reversing the ‘Tragedy’ of the Commons? Sustainable Management and the Commons Act 2006

The Commons Act 2006 is the first statute since the Commons Registration Act 1965 to address the problems associated with the management of common land in England and Wales. A key focus for the 2006 Act is the introduction of mechanisms for the sustainable management of common land, including self‐regulatory commons councils. This article examines the ‘sustainable’ management of common land in historical and contemporary perspective. It sets the 2006 Act, and the sustainable management of common land, in the wider context of the ongoing debate triggered by Hardin's ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ and subsequent institutional and post‐institutional scholarship on common pool resource management. It uses historical and qualitative research data drawn from three case studies to demonstrate the irrelevance of Hardin's thesis in an English context, and identifies the Commons Registration Act of 1965 as the true ‘tragedy’ of the English and Welsh commons. The case studies also illustrate the challenges posed by the introduction of legal mechanisms to promote the ecologically sustainable management of the modern commons, and inform the critique of the Commons Act 2006 developed in the article.     

Spain's ETA Terrorist Group is Dying

The armed organization “Basque Fatherland & Liberty” undertook a struggle for an independent homeland vis-à-vis Spanish central government over half a century ago. But today, the author argues, the ETA appears doomed for three reasons. First, Spanish statesmen of the late 1970s agreed to limited autonomy for Basque-dominated provinces, and over time this undermined militancy. Second, Paris has become a strong partner to Madrid in pursuing ETA members—who once could hide readily amidst French Basques. And finally, Spanish policing is now excellent. With good intelligence and professionalism, varied internal security forces have been confronting ETA gunmen and tracking down the personnel of proscribed support groups. Thus, a resilient Spanish democracy offers a case study in how terrorist groups may end.