Trade Winds: NAFTA and the Rational Public

The sharp increase in suppport for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) poses a challenge to many of our conceptions of public opinion. Most large shifts in public opinion follow major events. Based on models estimated from the September to November NBC News/ Wall Street Journal surveys, I show this was not the case with respect to public opinion on NAFTA. Instead, the increase in support for the pact reflected a slower response to a public debate over the merits of free trade versus protectionism. As the debate proceeded, large segments of the public— including the least interested—developed more highly constrained belief systems. By the end of the public discourse, the most and least interested citizens both linked attitudes on the merits of trade to their positions on NAFTA and to their evaluations of the elites on each side of the issue. People made up their minds on NAFTA on the basis of arguments about trade, not about their own self-interest. The NAFTA case suggests that there may be a rational public at the individual level after all, even among people who may not usually be interested in public affairs.     

The future of western Canada: economic,social, and political

Abstract. Western Canada is generally regarded as consisting of the three prairie provinces and British Columbia. It is a region that is very sensitive to technological and economic trends. Regional social and political adjustments result from these trends, and since Canada is a federation the political decisions are divided between the federal government and each of the four constituent provinces. This leads to frictions between the governments, especially with regard to energy policies, natural resource use, transportation costs, and the location of secondary industries. The economy of western Canada is mainly extractive, and the products are subject to many price and output fluctuations which are very difficult to control by public policies. Nevertheless, the region has experienced substantial economic growth since the thirties at a rate comparable to that of all Canada, and the region should continue to grow at least in pace with Canada in future decades, with the highest growth rates in Alberta and British Columbia. Much will depend upon the continuation of a high level of investment financed in large part by external savings, involving much foreign ownership. Urbanization has proceeded rapidly in western Canada, accompanied by many social adjustments. The public sector has expanded markedly, and further relative growth is envisaged. Throughout the years the region has sent large contingents of opposition members to Ottawa, regardless of the party in power. This alienation is greatest in Alberta and least in Manitoba. Separation is alive in the region, patricularly in Alberta, where much larger petroleum revenues would be obtainable if separation occurred. Federal-provincial tensions involving western Canada will intensify in the future, calling for continuous negotiations and constitutional jurisdictional judgements. Sommaire. On considère généralement que les trois provinces des Prairies et la Colombie-britannique constituent l'Ouest du Canada. C'est une région très sensible aux mouvements technologiques et économiques. Les ajustements régionaux - sociaux et économiques - sont le résultat de ces tendances, et comme le Canada est une fédération, les décisions politiques se trouvent partagées entre le gouvernenient fédéral et chacune des quatre provinces de l'Ouest. Ceci donne lieu à des frictions entre gouvernements, surtout lorsqu'il s'agit des politiques énergétiques, de l'usage des ressources naturelles, des coûlts de transport et de l'emplacement des industries secondaires. L'économie de l'Ouest du Canada est surtout extractive et ses produits sont sujets à toutes sortes de fluctuations de prix et d'apports que les politiques publiques ont beaucoup de peine à réglementer. La région a connu, cependant, une croissance économique significative depuis les années 30, à un taux comparable à celui de tout le Canada et la région devrait continuer à croître au moins au même rythme que le reste du Canada dans les décennies à venir, avec les taux de croissance les plus élevés en Alberta et en Colombie-britannique. Cela dépendra beaucoup de la continuation du volume élevé d'investissements, financés en grande partie par de l'épargne provenant de l'extérieur de la province et avec une grande participation étrangère. L'urbanisation a été rapide dans l'Ouest du Canada, ce qui a demandé de nombreux ajustements sociaux. Le secteur public a connu une grande expansion et l'on s'attend encore à une croissance relative. Au cours des années, la région a envoyéà Ottawa des contingents importants de députés de l'opposition, quel qu'ait été le parti au pouvoir. C'est en Alberta que l'aliénation est la plus grande, alors qu'elle est à son minimùm au Manitoba. Le séparatisme existe dans la région, en particulier en Alberta où il serait possible d'augmenter considérablement les revenus provenant du pétrole si la Province était indépendante. Les tensions fédérales-provinciales concernant l'Ouest du Canada ne feront qu'augmenter à l'avenir, ce qui exigera des négociations continues et des jugements constitutionnels sur des questions de juridiction.     

Situational factors and police use of force across micro-time intervals: A video systematic social observation and panel regression analysis

The current study analyzes police use of force as a series of time-bound transactions between officers, civilians, and bystanders. The research begins with a systematic social observation of use-of-force events recorded on police body-worn cameras in Newark, New Jersey. Researchers measure the occurrence and time stamps for numerous participant physical and verbal behaviors. Data are converted into a longitudinal panel format measuring all observed behaviors in 5-second intervals. Panel logistic regression models estimate the effect of each behavior on use of force in immediate and subsequent temporal periods. Findings indicate certain variables influence use of force at a distinct point in time, whereas others exert influence on use of force across multiple time periods. The most influential variables relate to authority maintenance theoretical constructs. This finding supports prior perspectives arguing that police use of force largely results from officer attempts to maintain constant authority over civilians during face-to-face encounters. Nonetheless, a range of additional variables reflecting procedural justice, civilian resistance, and bystander presence significantly affect when police use force during civilian encounters. Results provide nuance to theoretical frameworks considering use of force as resulting from the interplay between officer and civilian actions and reactions.     

Evaluation of canine training aids containment for homemade explosive and components by headspace analysis and canine testing

While canines are most commonly trained to detect traditional explosives, such as nitroaromatics and smokeless powders, homemade explosives (HMEs), such as fuel–oxidizer mixtures, are arguably a greater threat. As such, it is imperative that canines are sufficiently trained in the detection of such HMEs. The training aid delivery device (TADD) is a primary containment device that has been used to house HMEs and HME components for canine detection training purposes. This research assesses the odor release from HME components, ammonium nitrate (AN), urea nitrate (UN), and potassium chlorate (PC), housed in TADDs. Canine odor recognition tests (ORTs) were used with analytical data to determine the detectability of TADDs containing AN, UN, or PC. Headspace analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) with solid-phase microextraction (SPME) or online cryotrapping were used to measure ammonia or chlorine, as well as other unwanted odorants, emanating from bulk AN, UN, and PC in TADDs over 28 weeks. The analytical data showed variation in the amount of ammonia and chlorine over time, with ammonia from AN and UN decreasing slowly over time and the abundance of chlorine from PC TADDs dependent on the frequency of exposure to ambient air. Even with these variations in odor abundance, canines previously trained to detect bulk explosive HME components were able to detect all three targets in glass and plastic TADDs for at least 18 months after loading. Detection proficiency ranged from 64% to 100% and was not found to be dependent on either age of material.     

Gay rights activism: collection action frames,networks, and protesting among gays,lesbians, and bisexuals

While sexual minorities have produced large and efficacious social movements in many countries, there are few systematic studies on why gays and lesbians join these movements. To address this void, this study created a unique sample of activist and non-activist listservs to identify some factors that inspired greater involvement in protests for gay and lesbian equality (n?=?285). Through the use of binary logistic regression, this study highlights the importance of several contextual, framing, and demographic variables on the protesting actions of sexual minorities. In particular, the act of protesting for gay and lesbian rights was predicted by involvement in voluntary groups, the concealment of sexual orientations, a concern over institutionalized heterosexism, and the internalizing several sorts of activist identities. Finally, racial background, but not gender, age, or economic factors, was associated with attendance at gay and lesbian rights demonstrations.