Stop,Question, and Assess: Comments on Rosenfeld and Fornango

We develop three points in this commentary on Rosenfeld and Fornango’s empirical assessment of the NYPD policy of stop, question, and frisk (SQF). First, we draw attention to some of the key patterns uncovered in the analysis, posing questions that we think warrant additional thought. Second, we highlight some potential ambiguities between the underlying logic model of SQF and the empirical models assumed in existing research evaluations that have important implications for the conclusions that one might draw from the available evidence. Finally, we suggest some ways in which the empirical basis for evaluating the efficacy of SQF might be strengthened.     

Within-Individual Changes in Impulsivity and Sensation Seeking from Childhood to Early Adulthood and Educational Attainment

Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Developmental perspectives recognize the importance of the development of impulsivity and sensation seeking for later life educational attainment. The current...     

Intimate Partner Victimization and Depressive Symptoms: Approaching Causal Inference Using a Longitudinal Twin Design

Journal of Quantitative Criminology - While a wealth of research reports a robust association between intimate partner victimization and depression, the relationship has not been tested using...     

A Primary Cause of Partisanship? Nomination Systems and Legislator Ideology

Many theoretical and empirical accounts of representation argue that primary elections are a polarizing influence. Likewise, many reformers advocate opening party nominations to nonmembers as a way of increasing the number of moderate elected officials. Data and measurement constraints, however, have limited the range of empirical tests of this argument. We marry a unique new data set of state legislator ideal points to a detailed accounting of primary systems in the United States to gauge the effect of primary systems on polarization. We find that the openness of a primary election has little, if any, effect on the extremism of the politicians it produces.     

Ignorance Is Bias: The Effect of Latino Losers on Models of Latino Representation

Nearly every aggregate study of minority legislative representation has observed outcomes of elections (officeholders), rather than the supply of minority candidates. Because of this, scholars have left a large amount of important data, the election losers, out of their models of minority representation. The evidence presented in this article demonstrates that voters in the United States cannot choose minority officeholders because there are rarely minority candidates on the ballot. I use state legislative candidate data from Carsey et al. ( 2008 ) and Klarner et al. ( 2012 ) to test models of Latino representation that correct for first‐stage selection bias. Once candidate self‐selection is taken into account, the probability of electing a Latino increases enormously. I then use data from 2010 to make out‐of‐sample predictions, which clearly favor the conditional model. Thus, our current understanding of Latino representation is significantly biased by ignoring the first stage of an election, a candidate's decision to run.     

Host‐habitat Location by the Parasitoid,Nasonia vitripennis Walker (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae)

This study investigated the role of odorant cues used during host‐habitat location by the generalist parasitoid, Nasonia vitripennis Walker. Nasonia vitripennis is a common parasitoid of Dipteran pupae found in association with decaying carrion. Behavioral assays were used to investigate the host‐habitat searching behavior under different scenarios. First, we demonstrated N. vitripennis to be significantly attracted toward odorant cues associated with decaying meat. The biological activity of nine of the volatile molecules constituting the odor of decaying meat was tested on the searching behavior of parasitoid females through two complementary chemoecological approaches: electroantennography (EAG) and olfactometry bioassays. Butanoic acid and butan‐1‐ol elicited high olfactory responses, but no attraction was induced by these two chemicals. Behavioral assays showed that, among the VOCs tested, methyldisulfanylmethane (DMDS) was the only volatile chemical to induce attraction in N. vitripennis.     

False positive and false negative rates in self-reported intentions to offend: A replication and extension

Purpose

Studies of criminal decision making commonly rely on college students’ self-reported intentions to commit a hypothetical offense. The current study evaluates the predictive validity of these intentions to offend.

Methods

Undergraduate students (n = 726) read a fictitious but seemingly realistic newspaper article describing an illegal opportunity for acquiring digital music files, and then reported their intentions to act upon the opportunity. Afterward, participants’ real world attempts to follow-through on the opportunity were monitored covertly.

Results

Findings reveal that participants who reported weak intentions to offend typically refrained from the act, resulting in a low false negative rate. However, those who reported strong intentions to offend also typically refrained from the act, thereby resulting in a high false positive rate.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that while participants’ predictions of criminal abstention are generally accurate, their predictions of criminal involvement are more problematic. Such faulty intentions have important implications for research on criminal decision making.     

Formal and informal control views in China,Japan, and the U.S.

Purpose

This study compared and contrasted the views of formal and informal crime control among college students from China, Japan, and the U.S., and examined the correlates behind the views.

Methods

Using the same questionnaire, this study collected data from 1,275 completed surveys in the three nations.

Results

The study revealed that both Chinese and Japanese respondents evaluated formal and informal control and their combination in crime control as more important than American counterparts did. The variable trust in police was a predictor of attitudes toward formal control and the mix of formal and informal control in all the three nations. Demographics in the U.S. were more important factors than in China and Japan in predicting the respondents' ranking of the importance of formal control and informal control and their combination in crime control.

Conclusions

This is the first empirically comparative study of the perceived importance of formal and informal mechanisms in crime prevention and control in China, Japan and the U.S. The study found both similarities and differences in the perceived importance and reasons behind them. More research is needed in the future.     

Sympathy for the Devil: When and How to Negotiate with Criminal Gangs—Case of El Salvador

ABSTRACT

Criminal gangs, while posing the most substantial threat to security in the Western hemisphere, fall outside the scope of contemporary studies in the field of mediation and negotiation. The prevailing wisdom that gangs are unmanageable due to their apolitical nature and the high political cost of dialogue has led to an approach that relies heavily on the security sector. While the security sector can and must play a role, confrontation alone has proven insufficient. The three-step theory presented in this article seeks to explain how and when to engage in dialogue as an alternative means of confronting criminal gangs. The success of this process, a reduction in violence and criminality through the transformation of gang-related conflict, hinges on sequencing and begins with state-sponsored mediation conducted in secret to establish a cease-fire between the gangs, then enters the phase of public negotiation between the state and the gangs, and finally concludes with a process of mainstreaming the reformed structures into society. This theory assumes that mediators can work with the gangs through a process of assisted articulation to develop a negotiating position, opening a zone of possible agreement between the government and the gangs. El Salvador offers a compelling example of how a society steeped in gang violence might pursue dialogue while also highlighting the threats posed to any negotiation.     

The snowman outline: fact sheets by extensionists for farmers

Writing for smallholders in developing countries is an art that demands clear prose, a sound idea, and a logical outline. Although extension agents are often unaccustomed to writing, and usually need a sympathetic editor, extensionists know the target audience better than agricultural researchers or professional communicators. A one-page, 300-word fact sheet is a suitable format, allowing extensionists to write their insights for farmers. The fact sheet must be validated by farmers, who read it and review it for prose and concepts.

The “snowman” is a logical outline in three-parts: head (problem), middle (agro-ecological background), and main part (the solution). The middle section is the hardest for potential fact sheet authors to grasp, but it is also the most important. Anticipating the information that will convince the reader to try the recommendation requires a good knowledge of the audience. The farmers are not a passive audience. Smallholders can be engaged in logical, creative ways, even in writing.

La silhouette d'un bonhomme de neige : les fiches d'informations produites par des vulgarisateurs pour les fermiers

Ecrire pour de petits agriculteurs dans les pays en voie de développement est un art qui exige de la clarté dans la prose, une idée valable, et une forme logique. Malgré le fait que les éducateurs n'ont pas l'habitude d'écrire et qu'ils ont souvent besoin d'un éditeur compatissant, les vulgarisateurs connaissent mieux que les chercheurs agricoles ou les communicateurs professionnels leur public cible. Une seule page de 300 mots est un format approprié à la fiche d'informations, qui permet aux vulgarisateurs de transmettre leurs perspectives aux fermiers. La fiche doit être validée par des fermiers qui la lisent et qui passent en revue sa prose et ses idées. Le ‘bonhomme de neige’ fournit une silhouette logique en trois parties : la tête (le problème), le centre (contexte agri-écologique) et le corps (la solution). Le contexte est la partie la plus difficile à comprendre par les auteurs potentiels de fiches d'informations, mais il est aussi la plus importante. Anticiper les informations qui convaincront le lecteur d'essayer la démarche recommandée exige une bonne connaissance du public. Les fermiers ne sont pas des lecteurs passifs. On peut impliquer les petits agriculteurs d'une façon logique et créative, même à l'écriture.

El esbozo en forma de muñeco de nieve: hojas informativas escritas por extensionistas para pequeños productores

Escribir para un público de los pequeños productores de países en desarrollo es un arte que exige prosa clara, ideas firmes y un esbozo lógico. Si bien los agentes de extensión no están acostumbrados a escribir y, en general, necesitan de un buen editor, conocen al público objetivo mejor que los investigadores en agricultura o que los comunicadores profesionales. La hoja informativa de una cuartilla y de 300 palabras constituye un formato adecuado que permite a los extensionistas difundir sus hallazgos entre los campesinos. Dicha hoja informativa debe ser validada por los productores, quienes la leen y la valoran de acuerdo a su claridad y a los conceptos que contiene. El esbozo lógico consta de tres partes en forma de “muñeco de nieve”: el encabezado (presentación del problema), la parte central (exposición de los antecedentes agroecológicos) y la parte final (propuesta de solución). Para los potenciales autores de las hojas informativas, la sección de antecedentes representa la parte más difícil de escribir pero también la más importante. Se requiere de un buen nivel de familiaridad con el público para ser capaz de anticipar la información que impulsará al lector a poner en práctica las recomendaciones. Los pequeños productores no son un público pasivo. Participarán en actividades lógicas y creativas, aun cuando éstas impliquen la escritura.

A apresentação do homem das neves: informes produzidos por extensionistas para produtores rurais

Escrever para pequenos produtores de países em desenvolvimento é uma arte que exige um texto claro, uma ideia bem fundamentada e uma apresentação lógica. Embora agentes de extensão não estejam muito acostumados a escrever, e normalmente precisam de um editor compreensivo, os extensionistas conhecem o público-alvo melhor do que os pesquisadores agrícolas ou comunicadores profissionais. Um informe de uma página e 300 palavras possui uma forma adequada, permitindo aos extensionistas escrever suas ideias para os produtores rurais. O informe deve ser validado pelos produtores rurais, que o lêem e revisam o texto e os conceitos. O “homem das neves” é uma apresentação lógica em três partes: cabeça (problema), meio (contexto agro-ecológico) e parte principal (a solução). A seção do contexto é a mais difícil para compreensão dos autores em potencial dos informes, mas é também a mais importante. Antecipar as informações que convencerão o leitor a tentar seguir a recomendação exige bom conhecimento sobre o público. Os produtores rurais não são um público passivo. Os pequenos produtores podem ser engajados de forma lógica e criativa, até mesmo por escrito.