The Evolution of Chinese Foreign Policy: New Incentives with Slowing Growth

Abstract

Rising powers such as the People's Republic of China (PRC) experience two distinct stages of relative capability growth. China is currently in the first stage of growth, which is defined by increasingly rapid expansion and incentives for foreign policy accommodation. As the PRC shifts to the second stage, however, relative growth will slow, and leaders in Beijing will be presented with new incentives for foreign policy confrontation. This article formalizes a two-stage model of relative power growth and argues that China's shift to the second stage of growth will threaten regional and global stability. During this shift, the key to international security will be a coordinated, multilateral effort that responsibly balances China's growing power with a similarly expanded international role for China.     

Hybridity and Friction in Organizational Politics: New Perspectives on the African Security Regime Complex

ABSTRACT

Security governance in Africa constitutes a web of interactions between national, regional, and international organizations. This emerging ‘African security regime complex' receives growing attention in International Relations debates on international organizations (IOs). Most analysis, however, follows institutionalist and problem-solving approaches, centred on regulatory concerns. We offer a different perspective. Moving beyond dominant perspectives on organizations as either pre-given institutional ‘wholes' or rationalized ‘tools' of states, we instead unpack the ‘politics of organizations’, understood as the multiple processes and forms of agency through which organizations emerge, diversify and transform. In doing so, we bring IO analysis into conversation with debates on hybridity, friction and translocality.     

Terrorist group survival: ideology, tactics, and base of operations

The paper applies survival analysis to identify the determinants of terrorist group duration. Our sample includes 367 terrorist organizations that operated during 1970?C2007. Consistent with the theory, determinants of these groups?? survival include their tactics, sizes, ideological basis, regions of operation, and base-country characteristics. Cross-sectional and panel estimates are reported. Terrorist organizations fare better if they are larger in size, diversify their attack modes, are animated by religiosity rather than secular political goals, and base their operations in the Middle East or Africa. Groups?? longevity is bolstered by democratic institutions and an intermediate level of ethnic fractionalization at home.     

The Effect of Gender of Perpetrator and Victim on Perceptions of Psychological and Physical Intimate Partner Aggression

Most studies of third-party perceptions of intimate partner violence focus on heterosexual relationships and report that male-to-female aggression is perceived more negatively than female-to-male. Since gender of aggressor and gender of victim are consistently confounded in these portrayals, it is not clear whether the gender of the aggressor or the gender of the victim accounts for the effect. The present research manipulated gender of perpetrator and victim to unravel this confound. Two hundred and fifty one participants (166 females) read scenarios involving psychological or physical aggression between two males, two females, or a male and a female. Participants reported their perceptions of the encounter and the character and emotional reactions of the individual couple members. Physical aggression was evaluated more negatively than psychological aggression. Participants evaluated the encounter and the perpetrator and victim in a manner consistent with stereotypical gender roles, revealing more concern for female than male victims and greater denigration of male than female perpetrators. These results have implications for programs aimed at the reduction of intimate partner violence and the services and programs developed for perpetrators and victims.     

Custom,contestation and co-operation: peace and justice promotion in Somaliland

This article explores alternatives to prevailing state-centric and legalistic approaches to supporting local security and access to justice. It does so through a case study of an initiative developed by an international NGO in partnership with a group of traditional authorities in Somaliland. The initiative aimed at enhancing local security and access to justice, drawing on customary conflict resolution mechanisms and everyday strategies of self-securing. At the same time, the initiative was shaped by international input and liberal notions of human rights and human security. This approach entailed a renegotiation of both local ordering and international discourse. Drawing on our fieldwork, we examine the initiative as it has evolved since 2003, and discuss what it suggests in terms of prospects for international support to ‘non-state’ actors. In particular, the article draws attention to the potential of working with everyday local practices to enable social change rather than focusing narrowly on reforming legal systems (whether state or customary).     

Die Selbstbehauptung und Selbstgefährdung des Friedens als Herrschaft des Rechts

Peace is conceivable only as a legal order. According to Hans Kelsen, a legal order is by its very nature a ‘coercive order’. Thus, peace and coercion are not mutually exclusive, but refer to each other in the concept of law. In this contribution, we elaborate and problematize the paradoxical relationship between coercion and peace in theoretical and historical perspective. For this, we differentiate between arbitrary force and legal enforcement in the context of world-order politics. While we argue in favor of peace through law enforcement, we also emphasize the element of arbitrariness in the concept and historical formation of law. This is to say that the stabilization of peace through legal coercion goes hand in hand with its simultaneous destabilization. The text unfolds this dilemma with reference to the evolution of the theory and practice of legitimizing the use of force from past to present. We argue that the dilemma cannot be overcome, but it can be mitigated through the creation of a rule of law, which allows for a reflexive treatment of the tension between peace and coercion.     

A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR STUDYING THE SOURCES OF VARIATION IN PROGRAM EFFECTS

Evaluations of public programs in many fields reveal that different types of programs—or different versions of the same program—vary in their effectiveness. Moreover, a program that is effective for one group of people might not be effective for other groups, and a program that is effective in one set of circumstances may not be effective in other circumstances. This paper presents a conceptual framework for research on such variation in program effects and the sources of this variation. The framework is intended to help researchers—both those who focus mainly on studying program implementation and those who focus mainly on estimating program effects—see how their respective pieces fit together in a way that helps to identify factors that explain variation in program effects, and thereby support more systematic data collection. The ultimate goal of the framework is to enable researchers to offer better guidance to policymakers and program operators on the conditions and practices that are associated with larger and more positive effects.     

DVPW-Mitteilungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung