强势崛起、金融危机与俄罗斯对外政策的调整

2008年,俄格冲突和金融危机对俄罗斯对外政策产生,了实质性的影响。俄格冲突体现了俄罗斯的强势崛起,表明实力复苏的俄罗斯坚决捍卫国家核心利益的决心;金融危机则对俄罗斯带来了多方位的冲击,暴露出俄罗斯复兴进程的脆弱性与不确定性。俄罗斯就是在俄格冲突之际的冲动和亢奋与金融危机时的无奈与失落之间度过2008年的。这种落差体现了俄罗斯内政、经济与外交之间的密切关联,展现了俄罗斯对外战略中的内在矛盾,也影响着俄罗斯对外政策的调整。     

未成年人刑事案件的审前调查制度探讨

审前调查是在法院判决前，由专门机构对行为人的个人情况、犯罪背景等进行专门调查，并对其人身危险性进行系统的评估，然后将调查与评估报告提交法院，供法院在量刑时参考的一种制度。审前调查制度有利于促进刑罚效益的最优实现，被认为是量刑科学化、合理化的体现，是犯罪人处遇个别化的出发点。在未成年刑事案件的处理中，这一制度更具有特殊的意义，已成为当今各国少年刑法中的通行制度。但就我国现状而言，审前调查制度在立法中尚属空白。本文就我国未成年刑事案件处理中引入该制度的相关问题略作探讨。     

Prospect theory,operational code analysis,and risk-taking behaviour: a new model of China’s crisis behaviour

Integrating prospect theory and operational code analysis, this paper introduces an innovative approach to studying the decision making of Chinese leaders during crises. The unique contribution of this paper is to adopt the methodology of operational code analysis to measure the domain of actions of policy makers in the application of prospect theory. We suggest that leaders’ operational code beliefs can help us to identify in which domain of actions (gains or losses) leaders are located during crises. Xi Jinping experienced two notable foreign policy crises in 2014, the ‘oil rig’ crisis with Vietnam and the ‘P-8 crisis’ with the United States, which are examined in detail to illustrate Xi’s operational code beliefs and risk-taking behaviour of ‘confident accommodation’ behaviour during crises. To test the process validity of integrating operational code analysis and prospect theory, Hu Jintao’s operational code beliefs and crisis behaviour in 2011–2012 are then compared to Xi’s beliefs and decisions in this study of China’s crisis behaviour.     

论工会在推进新生代农民工城市融入中的作用

与老一代农民工相比,新生代农民工城市融入愿望更为强烈。然而,受到城乡二元结构的限制与自身文化、技能的制约,新生代农民工城市融入水平较低。工会作为党联系职工群众的纽带和桥梁,作为职工利益的代表者和维护者,理应发挥组织优势,加快推进新生代农民工城市融入。     

国际秩序与中美战略竞争

当今国际格局的最显著变化,就是新兴市场国家和发展中国家的群体性崛起以及中国与世界主要国家间力量对比的变化。就中美当前的实力地位和国际影响力而言,中美战略竞争中短期内还难以决定性地改变当前的国际秩序。中国即便对美国的贸易霸凌主义和在亚太地区的霸权主义军事及安全行动采取斗争的回应方式,也并不意味着两国无法合作、或中美关系已进入国际秩序变革的主导权之争。中美战略竞争的同时,经贸往来和必要的合作仍会发展。中美战略竞争会影响权力、观念和行为方式的调整变化,其走势将在相当程度上影响国际秩序的稳定和变革。但未来国际秩序的变革并非只取决于中美,世界主要国家间的互动关系和战略选择,将决定性地影响中美战略竞争的走势和未来国际秩序的演变进程。     

Reforming China's Stock Market: Institutional Change Chinese Style

In this article we examine the dual-track pricing system in China's stock market since its inauguration, a legacy of its economic transition and a major source of institutional predation in the market. We then examine the share structure reform initiated in 2005 that sought to eliminate the distortion this predation had elicited. We interpret the reform push as a process of institutional change and focus on the drivers and theoretical explanations of such changes in China's stock market. We thus advance a model for understanding institutional change, Chinese style. We argue that, initially, the institutional arrangement was constructed by the dynamics of transition – the juxtaposition of the Leninist state and the emerging stock market. This provided huge incentives for state corruption in the emerging market. As the market transition proceeded, the societal and political costs of corruption and market distortion also grew, which produced a crisis that eventually attracted the attention of powerful leaders of the party state. We argue from this case that the broader political context in which specific examples of institutional change occur needs to be examined. Specifically, we argue that powerful agents who are external to given institutional environments can play an important role in institutional change, thus highlighting the political dynamics of an authoritarian state amid systemic transition and global integration.     

第一代独生子女婚姻生育选择及对未来人口和家庭结构的影响——兼与庄渝霞商榷生育政策调整的可行性

随着第一代独生子女进入婚育年龄,产生大量的双独家庭、单独家庭,不同家庭类型的变化将引起政策生育率自然回升,如果考虑到有部分家庭放弃生育二孩,则意愿生育率会低于政策生育率。本文从独生子女婚育选择的角度出发,使用相关调查数据分析,发现由双独家庭所产生"4-2-1"家庭的数目受政策微调生育的影响较小,政策微调可以大幅度降低一孩家庭的比例,二孩家庭比例的增加无疑会降低家庭风险,且不会大规模地增加出生人口数量,因此,中国应当对生育政策进行微调,增强人口结构的合理性。     

西南边疆少数民族地区汉语语体意识的培养

一切使用语言文字的地方都存在着语体意识的问题,以语言为本位,语体意识的习得后于语言的习得.西南边疆少数民族地区特殊的地理区住、民族分布和民风习俗,决定了其语言使用的情况是多元立体的.当地民汉交际使用的语言类型是民汉兼用型,其汉语中介语是当地突出的语言特征.因此,对西南边疆少数民族地区汉语语体意识现状进行调查、分析,并提出适切的汉语语体培养策略,这能有效地提高当地少数民族的汉语办公能力,促进当地少数民族与汉族之间的言语交际,最大限度地消解交际带来的言语失误、话语失体及交流阻隔等语用失误现象,从而对进一步促进少数民族与汉族的语言和谐、推动边疆民族团结、构建和谐边疆有着积极的作用.     

在京部分专家学者谈“中东北非局势动荡及对我影响”

2011年2月8日,和平与发展研究中心召开“中东北非局势动荡及对我影响”研讨会,邀请在京部分著名专家学者参加。现将他们的主要观点刊登如下,以飨读者。     

新生猪胰腺干细胞培养方法的建立

通过对不同饲养层和培养基以及细胞因子进行筛选,比较了各种培养基和细胞生长因子对细胞传代时间和增殖细胞比例的影响,选择最佳分离条件,建立了新生猪胰腺干细胞体外培养的最佳体系。结果显示,以成纤维细胞为饲养层,在含100 mL/L胎牛血清的L-DMEM中添加表皮生长因子、干细胞因子、白血病抑制因子的培养液中培养,细胞能快速增殖,多突起、多角形、小圆形、长梭形4种类型干细胞的增殖比例适中,而且各种类型的细胞都能长期传代培养。